Modelling cyclic container freight index using system dynamics

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the cyclical nature of container shipping market represented by a containerized freight index and proposes a predictive cyclical model of the market. In contrast to the traditional spectral analysis (univariate), system dynamics reflect the drivers of the market in both supply and demand side, and therefore, it is a multi-variate system equilibrium approach consisting of various causal spillovers from sub-components of the market. This study is the first to analyze the cycle of container market using system dynamics. By utilizing system dynamics cyclicality approach, one-step ahead predictions are generated for monthly containerized freight index and compared to conventional benchmarks for post-sample validation. Our study can also help policymakers and shipping liners for better management and invest timing of container ship.     

Does a carbon tax affect the feasibility of Arctic shipping?

The Arctic route has huge potential for shipping between Europe and Northeast Asia with significant savings in transit time and distance. However, GHG emissions from shipping would harm the environment of Arctic area. Potential Market Based Measures of GHG emission reduction (such as carbon tax) are under consideration but they may affect the economic viability of Northern Sea Route (NSR) for containerships. This paper investigates the economic viability of NSR against Suez Canal Route (SCR) under 2 proposed carbon tax schemes (fixed vs. progressive). Three different fuel oil types (Heavy Fuel Oil, Light Fuel Oil, Liquified Natural Gas) are used as main bunker fuel for the calculation of economic feasibility. Our result reveals that when there is no carbon tax on NSR nor SCR, or both routes are under a carbon tax scheme, no matter fixed or progressive, NSR is more economically viable, regardless of fuel type choice. When only NSR is under a carbon tax scheme, the viability depends on specific carbon tax scheme and fuel choice, but for the majority of containership sizes, NSR has lower unit cost. The result also suggests that for a given route, a progressive scheme in preferable than a fixed one and LNG would be an appealing fuel with lower unit cost.     

The container retrieval problem with respect to relocation

The demand for container terminal yards is growing significantly faster than the supply of available land; therefore, containers are typically stacked high to better utilize the land space in container yards. However, in the process of container retrieval, non-productive reshuffling may be required to relocate the containers that are stacked on top of the target container. Container retrieval is directly related to the operational efficiency of terminals. Because the industry has become increasingly competitive, it has become critical to introduce a systematic approach to retrieving containers. In this study, we develop a heuristic that can generate feasible working plans for rail-mounted gantry cranes (RMGC) in container yards to minimize the number of container movements while taking the RMGC working time into consideration. The methodology takes into consideration the case that containers are grouped in terms of their retrieval order. Multi-lift RMGC models also are studied. Comprehensive numerical experiments reveal that the method runs faster than other methods published in the literature by several orders of magnitude; additionally, our method is able to solve instances larger than practical use. The number of movements approaches a theoretical lower bound, and the numerical results clearly demonstrate the tradeoff between the number of movements and the working time, and provide useful insights for yard planning.     

An integrated programming model for storage management and vehicle scheduling at container terminals

In this paper, we study the optimization of yard operations, which are critical for the terminal efficiency. A linear mixed integer programming (MIP) model is proposed for scheduling different types of equipment and planning the storage strategy in an integrated way. We also investigate a nonlinear mixed integer programming (NLMIP) model to reduce the number of constraints and the computational time. A set of numerical results are carried out for the comparison between the linear model and the nonlinear model. Finally, we propose a genetic algorithm for the MIP model to illustrate how large scale problems can be solved and to show the effect of different factors on the performances of the optimization model.     

Measuring the performance of intermodal freight terminals

As the interface point between road and rail, intermodal freight terminals (IFTs) are critical elements in the total freight distribution chain. This paper addresses the twin objectives of reducing freight transport costs and improving customer service by putting forward a number of indicators designed to measure the performance of IFTs. Each of the three major performance areas, namely customer service, operational efficiency and terminal productivity are discussed in detail.

A methodology is put forward which enables operating strategies to be evaluated. Computer simulation is used in order to arrive at strategies which reduce operating and capital costs and satisfy customer service requirements. The simulation model outputs include performance measures related to customer service such as mean waiting times required for loading and unloading of containers, as well as productivity measures of terminal operations such as lifting equipment utilisation.     

海陆联运条件下集装箱空箱调运问题的研究

空箱调运已成为集装箱运输的一个重大难题。文章分析了海陆联运条件下集装箱空箱调运产生的主、客观因素及空箱调运管理中存在的问题,在此基础上,从加强船公司之间的合作、船公司与租箱公司之间的合作、提高集装箱信息化管理水平等方面研究了优化和减少集装箱空箱调运的多种措施。     

U.S. import/export container flow modeling and disruption analysis

International containerized freight movement is a vital part of the supply chain for many companies, and a critical element of moving consumer goods to points of retail sale within the U.S. Containerized imports also present a clear security concern (e.g., terrorists attempting to ship “dirty bombs,” chemical, biological or even nuclear weapons, into the U.S. in a shipping container). The goal of the research presented here is to create a modeling tool for analyzing flows of U.S. imports and exports of containerized freight, and the potential changes in those flows under a variety of conditions (e.g., port disruptions, extensive security-related delays, etc.). Our focus is on movements through maritime container ports, and not overland movements between the U.S. and Canada or Mexico.The network model, referred to as the System for Import/Export Routing and Recovery Analysis (SIERRA), represents container movements between the U.S. and 46 other countries that account for the vast majority of U.S. imports and exports. The SIERRA model is a network equilibrium model that predicts flows between foreign countries and North American ports, the total volumes handled (import and export) by each port, the modal volumes (truck and rail) moving domestically into and out of each port, and volumes between each port and a set of transportation analysis zones within the U.S.     

Performance analysis of cargo-handling equipment from a green container terminal perspective

This study employs a green container terminal perspective to compare the performance of four types of cargo handling equipment used in container yards – automatic rail, rail, electric tire, and tire transtainers – based on working efficiency, energy saving performance, and carbon reductions. It is found that automatic rail and electric tire transtainers are the optimal types of green cargo handling equipment.     

关于铁路发展集装箱多式联运的探讨

集装箱多式联运是先进的运输组织方式之一,是国际物流活动的主导运输组织形式。通过分析影响铁路集装箱多式联运发展的因素,从密切与政府的统筹协商,加强铁路内部的协调,实现技术装备的改进以及转变经营策略等方面提出建议。     

“十三五”铁水联运战略研究

"十三五"时期是我国实现全面建成小康社会战略目标决胜期,同时是我国现代物流发展的赶超和跨越时期;国家十分重视综合交通协调发展,大力推行多式联运,提高运输效率。就我国"十三五"期间铁水联运的发展,通过SWOT方法进行分析研究,提出从经营、土地政策、投融资、运力支持、规章制度等方面加大政策支持,建立铁水联运价格形成机制,发挥价格的市场调节作用,借助互联网+技术,切实提高铁水联运信息化水平,整合既有各相关各部门信息系统,大力发展铁水集装箱联运战略。