A copula-based approach for estimating the travel time reliability of urban arterial

Estimating the travel time reliability (TTR) of urban arterial is critical for real-time and reliable route guidance and provides theoretical bases and technical support for sophisticated traffic management and control. The state-of-art procedures for arterial TTR estimation usually assume that path travel time follows a certain distribution, with less consideration about segment correlations. However, the conventional approach is usually unrealistic because an important feature of urban arterial is the dependent structure of travel times on continuous segments. In this study, a copula-based approach that incorporates the stochastic characteristics of segments travel time is proposed to model arterial travel time distribution (TTD), which serves as a basis for TTR quantification. First, segments correlation is empirically analyzed and different types of copula models are examined. Then, fitting marginal distributions for segment TTD is conducted by parametric and non-parametric regression analysis, respectively. Based on the estimated parameters of the models, the best-fitting copula is determined in terms of the goodness-of-fit tests. Last, the model is examined at two study sites with AVI data and NGSIM trajectory data, respectively. The results of path TTD estimation demonstrate the advantage of the proposed copula-based approach, compared with the convolution model without capturing segments correlation and the empirical distribution fitting methods. Furthermore, when considering the segments correlation effect, it was found that the estimated path TTR is more accurate than that by the convolution model.     

Extreme hawser tension assessment for FPSO vessel during offloading operation in Bohai bay

The Floating Production Storage and Offloading Unit (FPSO) is an offshore vessel that produces and stores crude oil prior to tanker transport.Robust prediction of extreme hawser tensions during Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) operation is an important safety concern. Excessive hawser tension may occur during offloading operations, posing an operational risk. In this paper, AQWA has been used to analyze vessel response due to hydrodynamic wave loads, acting on a specific FPSO vessel under actual sea conditions. Experimental validation of numerical results has been discussed as well.This paper advocates methodology for estimating extreme response statistics, based on simulations (or measurements). The modified ACER (averaged conditional exceedance rate) method is presented in brief detail. Proposed methodology provides an accurate extreme value prediction, utilizing all available data efficiently. In this study the estimated return level values, obtained by ACER method, are compared to the corresponding return level values obtained by Gumbel method. Based on the overall performance of the proposed method, it is concluded that the improved ACER method can provide more robust and accurate prediction of the extreme hawser tension.Data declustering issue has been addressed. Paper highlights ability of ACER method to account for a set of varying sea state probabilities, as required in engineering long term statistical analysis.Described approach may be well used at the vessel design stage, while defining optimal vessel parameters that would minimize potential FPSO hawser tension.     

考虑空车调配协调的货物列车开行方案优化研究

为实现空车调配与货物列车开行方案协调优化，结合基本运行图架构与车流径路，构建货运时空服务拓展网络。考虑配空与装卸取送、集编发等环节的时间接续要求，节点与区段不对流空车要求，以重车流全程运送与空车配送等广义总费用最少为目标，建立整数规划弧路模型。针对既有算法设计局限性，结合重车或空车配空的时间接续要求，提出将不同的 k 短路重车流方案与空车配空方案相关联的改进可行解构造方法，设计混合差分进化求解算法。实例研究表明，考虑空车调配进行重车、空车流组织协调优化，能够减少空车走行费用，及时满足装车需求，有效保证作业车流配合中转车流集结编组及时挂线，提高方案可实施性。     

基于隧道检测钢筋分布不均状况下判定衬砌结构安全性应用研究

近年来隧道内出现的越来越多的质量安全事故,引起各方高度重视,相应的最适宜隧道主体工程衬砌质量控制的地质雷达无损检测方法被广泛应用。通过雷达无损检测可揭露出衬砌内欠厚、脱空、钢筋分布不均等大量各类型缺陷,针对欠厚脱空等缺陷制定的注浆或开窗等治理措施是目前工程中常见的整改闭合工序,但钢筋分布不均对结构安全影响如何判定,怎么界定处理尚无成熟方案与规定。本文针对隧道项目中实际检测出的钢筋分布不均缺陷,在不宜大范围扰动结构及围岩进行整治的情况下,以及在避免其他问题共存等不利因素的前提下,应用有限元数值模拟计算分析强度安全系数,并结合现场外观等综合因素对衬砌结构安全性进行分析判定研究。     

On the variance of recurrent traffic flow for statistical traffic assignment

This paper generalizes and extends classical traffic assignment models to characterize the statistical features of Origin-Destination (O-D) demands, link/path flow and link/path costs, all of which vary from day to day. The generalized statistical traffic assignment (GESTA) model has a clear multi-level variance structure. Flow variance is analytically decomposed into three sources, O-D demands, route choices and measurement errors. Consequently, optimal decisions on roadway design, maintenance, operations and planning can be made using estimated probability distributions of link/path flow and system performance. The statistical equilibrium in GESTA is mathematically defined. Its multi-level statistical structure well fits large-scale data mining techniques. The embedded route choice model is consistent with the settings of O-D demands considering link costs that vary from day to day. We propose a Method of Successive Averages (MSA) based solution algorithm to solve for GESTA. Its convergence and computational complexity are analyzed. Three example networks including a large-scale network are solved to provide insights for decision making and to demonstrate computational efficiency.     

现代大学生公寓电气设计浅析

文章采用文献资料、归纳与综合、专家访谈等研究方法,对现代大学生公寓电气设计进行了系统研究,主要内容包括配电系统、负荷系统、防雷接地、消防系统和智能化五个方面,旨为大学生公寓的电气设计提供有益资讯．     

高速公路中收费和清分的动态解决方案

在高速公路收费和清分过程中,由于新增的高速公路和收费站点特别是环型路段的增加使得原有的静态算法已经不适宜于现实情况。本文提出了高速公路中基于最短路径和环型路段的动态收费和清分解决方案,并给出了详细的基于环型路段的动态算法。环型路段问题解决后,可以判知车辆实际行车路线,从而大幅提高收费及清分的准确性和效率。     

基于时间约束的铁路空车调配系统可靠性分析

为弥补现有铁路空车调配系统缺乏空车调配可靠性研究的缺陷,在传统空车调配优化模型的基础上,本文提出了一种新的基于时间约束的空车调配可靠性分析方法。通过深入分析铁路空车调配过程,建立效益最大化目标函数,生成约束条件,以规定时间内的实际到达空车数与需求空车数之比计算出各需求站的空车调配可靠性,再利用各需求站可靠性均值求解空车调配系统的可靠性。最后,使用LINGO软件进行算例分析,论证了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

水润滑橡胶轴承板条型式及硬度分区对接触性能影响研究

轴承硬度分区设计思想的提出,为改善轴承接触性能提供了新思路。板条式水润滑橡胶应用广泛,针对凹面型、平面型、凸面型三种不同的板条型式,结合硬度分区设计的思想,对板条型式及硬度分区对接触陛能的影响进行了研究。建立了未进行硬度分区和分区后三种板条型式下的轴段与轴承有限元接触模型,对比分析了三种不同板条型式下硬度分区对接触性能的影响效果。结果表明,硬度分区能显著改善轴承的接触性能,凹面型板条型式的静态接触性能较佳。     

船舶配电系统交流智能配电关键技术研究

本文首先论述了船舶交流配电系统的发展需求,然后重点研究了船舶配电系统交流智能配电的关键技术,包括限流判断控制策略、短路故障判断策略及冲击性负载引起限流后解除限流的判断策略,最后通过原理样机,验证了船舶配电系统交流智能配电关键技术解决途径的可行性。