Real-time bus route state forecasting using particle filter and mesoscopic modeling

In the absence of system control strategies, it is common to observe bus bunching in transit operations. A transit operator would benefit from an accurate forecast of bus operations in order to control the system before it becomes too disrupted to be restored to a stable condition. To accomplish this, we present a general bus prediction framework. This framework relies on a stochastic and event-based bus operation model that provides sets of possible bus trajectories based on the observation of current bus positions, available via global positioning system (GPS) data. The median of the set of possible trajectories, called a particle, is used as the prediction. In particular, this enables the anticipation of irregularities between buses. Several bus models are proposed depending on the dwell and inter-stop running time representations. These models are calibrated and applied to a real case study thanks to the high quality data provided by TriMet (the Portland, Oregon, USA transit district). Predictions are finally evaluated by an a posteriori comparison with the real trajectories. The results highlight that only bus models accounting for the bus load can provide valid forecasts of a bus route over a large prediction horizon, especially for headway variations. Accounting for traffic signal timings and actual traffic flows does not significantly improves the prediction. Such a framework paves the way for further development of refined dynamic control strategies for bus operations.     

浅议快速公交系统发展中优先路权的保障

建设快速公交系统的核心要素是道路资源的优先使用,即道路优先通行权.只有为快速公交提供道路优先通行权,才能发挥其快速、便捷、集中的优势,体现其价值.本文为道路优先通行权制度的构建提出了相应的保障措施.     

公交企业在公交都市建设中的地位与任务

建设公交都市已成为大都市缓解城市交通拥堵的发展方向。本文在公交都市建设实践及研究成果的基础上，分析了常规公交在公交都市中的地位及公交企业的使命，提出了公交企业在公交都市建设中的任务体系，对公交企业的经营管理有一定的指导作用。     

Integrating GIS concepts into transportation network data structures

Transportation network data structures must be designed to meet the requirements of the analyses being conducted and must be compatible with the selected graphical user interface. Increasing interest in geographic information systems (GIS) and intelligent transportation systems (ITS) have further burdened the network data structure. It is possible to implement object oriented programming (OOP) technology to satisfy these needs, without making the data structure excessively complicated.

This paper shows how a well‐developed network data structure can incorporate major capabilities normally associated with stand‐alone GIS's. The design of a network data structure derives from both theoretical and practical considerations. A design of a network data structure, composed entirely of objects, is presented. Examples of its implementation, limitations, advantages, and possible extensions are drawn from experience with the General Network Editor (GNE).     

Economies of density and factor substitution in Dublin city bus services — a translog approach

The primary aim of the paper is to determine a short‐run cost function for Dublin City Bus Services (DCS), using a translog approach. The results show that there are significant economies of density in the transit operation. The results also indicate that the structure of DCS is characterised by a homothetic production function and that partial elasticities of substitution are non‐unitary.     

面向老龄化社会的常规公交系统问题与对策——基于老年人常规公交出行测量模型

我国已经进入老龄化社会,老年人由于生理特性的衰退、心理特性的改变,导致其搭乘常规公交时的行为特性与需求都与一般中、低龄者不同.因此,对老年人搭乘常规公交出行的需求进行了五点量表式问卷调查,获得老年人搭乘常规公交时感受到的交通环境问题,在对数据进行统计分析、信度检验和因素分析的基础上,建立简单的结构方程模型,模型经过拟合修正后,提取了影响显著的问题因子.最后分析老年人搭乘常规公交出行时的需求,并提出老龄化社会常规公交环境的改善措施.     

Development and evaluation of bus lanes with intermittent and dynamic priority in connected vehicle environment

Exclusive bus lanes provide a very high level of priority for transit operations, especially for Bus Rapid Transit and Express service, but these lanes could be underutilized and be a source of extra capacity if they could be shared in an intelligent way. This article explores the benefits of providing intermittent priority, called bus lane with intermittent and dynamic priority, of these exclusive bus lanes. Intermittent and dynamic priority can be implemented by allowing vehicles to use the lane when Bus Rapid Transit or Express bus is not present. Drivers can be alerted when a bus is in the lane using either infrastructure-based signs, or in the future using infrastructure-to-vehicle, or connected vehicle communications. Some critical operating parameters for implementing bus lane with intermittent and dynamic priority system including clear distance, degree of saturation (volume-to-capacity ratio), connected vehicle penetration, and bus departure/headway frequency have been investigated in this paper.     

信控交叉口上游港湾公交停靠站仿真研究

布设于信控交叉口上游处的港湾式公交停靠站是一种常见的设站形式,但对其布设位置并无明确标准。基于Vissim软件进行仿真,分析不同饱和度下的不同设站位置对运行车流的延误影响,找到不同饱和度下的最佳设站位置。通过对乌鲁木齐市南昌路口公交站点进行优化,得出其进口道延误有所减少的结论。     

“空巴联运”需求预测模型与实证分析:以湖北地区为例

以非集计离散选择模型理论为依据,建立基于Logit的城际旅客交通方式选择行为模型.根据武汉周边4个城市(孝感、随州、襄阳和十堰)经武汉到上海的旅客出行方式意向选择(Stated Preference,SP)调查数据,研究了影响旅客选择"空巴联运"(即航空与巴士接驳)方式的重要因素,并对影响因素进行灵敏度分析,估计3种交通方式("空巴联运"、动车—高铁、大巴—高铁)的客流分担率.基于调查数据,对模型参数进行了标定.结果表明,城市内出行时间(程前程后出行时间)和总出行货币费用对旅客出行方式选择影响显著.