Airport capacity choice under airport-airline vertical arrangements

This study investigates the effects of airport-airline vertical arrangements on airport capacity choices under demand uncertainty. A multi-stage game is analysed, in which competing airlines contribute to capacity investments and share airport revenues. Our analytical results suggest that for a profit-maximising airport, such a vertical arrangement leads to higher capacity but may not increase its profit, whereas for a welfare-maximising airport, such an arrangement has no effect on capacity or welfare. Capital cost savings brought by airport-airline cooperation, if any, always lead to higher capacity, and to higher profit for a profit-maximising airport and higher welfare for a welfare-maximising airport. Numerical simulations reveal that win-win outcomes may be achieved for an airport and its airlines without government intervention.     

The concept and impact analysis of a flexible mobility on demand system

This paper introduces an innovative transportation concept called Flexible Mobility on Demand (FMOD), which provides personalized services to passengers. FMOD is a demand responsive system in which a list of travel options is provided in real-time to each passenger request. The system provides passengers with flexibility to choose from a menu that is optimized in an assortment optimization framework. For operators, there is flexibility in terms of vehicle allocation to different service types: taxi, shared-taxi and mini-bus. The allocation of the available fleet to these three services is carried out dynamically so that vehicles can change roles during the day. The FMOD system is built based on a choice model and consumer surplus is taken into account in order to improve passenger satisfaction. Furthermore, profits of the operators are expected to increase since the system adapts to changing demand patterns. In this paper, we introduce the concept of FMOD and present preliminary simulation results. It is shown that the dynamic allocation of the vehicles to different services provides significant benefits over static allocation. Furthermore, it is observed that the trade-off between consumer surplus and operator’s profit is critical. The optimization model is adapted in order to take into account this trade-off by controlling the level of passenger satisfaction. It is shown that with such control mechanisms FMOD provides improved results in terms of both profit and consumer surplus.     

Ship resistance when operating in floating ice floes: Derivation,validation, and application of an empirical equation

With the effects of global warming, the Arctic is presenting a new environment where numerous ice floes are floating on the open sea surface. Whilst this has improved Arctic shipping navigability in an unprecedented way, the interaction of such floes with ships is yet to be understood to aid the designing of ships and route planning for this region. To further explore this topic, the present work develops a procedure to derive an empirical equation that can predict the effects of such floes on ship resistance. Based on a validated computational approach, extensive data are extracted from simulations of three different ships with varying operational and environmental conditions. The ice-floe resistance is shown to strongly correlate with ship beam, ship buttock angle, ship waterline angle, ship speed, ice concentration, ice thickness and floe diameter, and the regression powers of each of the parameters on resistance are ascertained. This leads to a generic empirical equation that can swiftly predict ice-floe resistance for a given ship in a given condition. Subsequently, demonstrations are given on the incorporation of the derived equation into a set of real-time Arctic ship performance model and voyage planning tool, which can predict a ship's fuel consumption in ice-infested seas and dynamically suggest a route with the least safety concern and fuel consumption. Moreover, the equation is validated by providing ice resistance prediction for experimental and full-scale conditions from multiple sources, showing high accuracy. In conclusion, the empirical equation is shown to give valid and rapid estimates for ice-floe resistance, providing valuable insights into ship designs for the region, as well as facilitating practical applications for polar navigation.     

An aggregate demand model for air passenger traffic in the hub-and-spoke network

In this paper, we build an aggregate demand model for air passenger traffic in a hub-and-spoke network. This model considers the roles of airline service variables such as service frequency, aircraft size, ticket price, flight distance, and number of spokes in the network. It also takes into account the influence of local passengers and social-economic and demographic conditions in the spoke and hub metropolitan areas. The hub airport capacity, which has a significant impact on service quality in the hub airport and in the whole hub-and-spoke network, is also taken into consideration.Our demand model reveals that airlines can attract more connecting passengers in a hub-and-spoke network by increasing service frequency than by increasing aircraft size in the same percentage. Our research confirms the importance of local service to connecting passengers, and finds that, interestingly, airlines’ services in the first flight leg are more important to attract passengers than those in the second flight segment. Based on data in this study, we also find that a 1% reduction of ticket price will bring about 0.9% more connecting passengers, and a 1% increase of airport acceptance rate can bring about 0.35% more connecting passengers in the network, with all else equal. These findings are helpful for airlines to understand the effects of changing their services, and also useful for us to quantify the benefits of hub airport expansion projects.At the end of this paper, we give an example as an application to demonstrate how the developed demand model could be used to valuate passengers’ direct benefit from airport capacity expansion.     

出租车合乘

车辆合乘是交通需求管理中的一项措施。交通需求管理,即引导人们采取科学的交通行为,理智地使用（不滥用）道路设施的有限资源。交通需求管理的主要措施遍布在交通行为的各个阶段,其中,组织汽车合乘作为出行方式阶段的措施已经被许多专家、学者提了出来。     

Demand and welfare effects in recreational travel models: Accounting for substitution between number of trips and days to stay

In this paper we present a non-linear demand system for households’ joint choice of number of trips and days to spend at a destination. The approach, which facilitates welfare analysis of exogenous policy and price changes, is used empirically to study the effects of an increased CO₂ tax. In particular, we focus on the effect of including substitution between households choice of the number of trips and days to spend at a destination in the welfare analysis. The analysis reveals that the equivalent variation (EV) measure, for the count data demand system, can be seen as an upper bound for the households welfare loss. Approximating the welfare loss by the change in consumer surplus, accounting for the positive effect from longer stays, imposes a lower bound on the households welfare loss. The difference in the estimated loss measures, from the considered CO₂ tax reform, is about 20%. This emphasizes the importance of accounting for substitutions toward longer stays in travel demand policy evaluations.     

旅游城市的公共自行车网络规划方法研究

为了对景区公共自行车站点进行合理布设,研究通过对相关文献的综合归纳,以及对国内自行车交通发展现状的分析,提出了以二次指数平滑法进行需求量预测、p-中位模型进行站址规划、模糊综合评判法进行站址评价的旅游城市景区公共自行车网络规划设计方法,并以大唐芙蓉园景区为例,进行了实例分析。结果表明所提出的方法能为旅游景区的公共自行车站点分布进行合理的规划。     

Putting our money to good use: Can we attract more passengers without increasing subsidies?

This paper evaluates the policy of Swedish public transport authorities, determining whether the number of trips on local public transport could have been increased without increasing subsidies. Based on annual data from Swedish counties, the evaluation found that between 1986 and 2001 public transport fares exceeded the passenger-maximising fare most of the time in all but two counties, the average deviation being 1-215%. Evaluating the alternative, passenger-maximising policy, including both fare and service changes for 2001, demonstrated that demand for local public transport in Swedish counties could have been increased by 0-178% without increasing subsidies. Aggregated, this represents a 2.3% increase in the number of trips on local public transport in Sweden.     

关于我国航海人才培养的经济学思考

随着经济全球化进程的加快,国际贸易持续增长,航海人才业已成为航运业发展的重要支撑。中国是一个人力资源大国,开发航海人才资源前景广阔。本文首先分析了我国航海人才供需现状,阐述了航运业存在的突出问题是人才的供需失衡,进而从经济学角度对航海人才的供给进行分析,并提出了解决问题的相关建议。     

基于SD模型的城市群—交通影响机理研究

研究了城市群交通影响预景分析及城市群交通需求分析理论,对基于系统动力学(SD)的交通影响预景分析方法、城市群交通需求分析方法进行了较为深入的探讨,建立了交通影响预景分析模型和城市群交通需求分析模型体系。通过实例验证了所提方法的有效性。