Longer-term changes in mode choice decisions in Chennai: a comparison between cross-sectional and dynamic models

The rapid and continuing changes in travel and mobility needs in India over the last decade necessitates the development and use of dynamic models for travel demand forecasting rather than cross-sectional models. In this context, this paper investigates mode choice dynamics among workers in Chennai city, India over a period of five years (1999–2004). Dynamics in mode choice is captured at four levels: exogenous variable change, state-dependence, changes in users’ sensitivity to attributes, and unobserved error terms. The results show that the dynamic models provide a substantial improvement (of over 500 log-likelihood points and ρ² increases from 44% to 68%) over the cross-sectional model. The performance was compared using two illustrative policy scenarios with important methodological and practical implications. The results indicate that cross-sectional models tend to provide inflated estimates of potential improvement measures. Improving the Level of Service (LOS) alone will not produce the anticipated benefits to transit agencies, as it fails to overcome the persistent inertia captured in the state-dependence factors. The results and models have important applications in the context of growing motorization and congestion management in developing countries.

客运专线道岔前后轨道刚度过渡段动力学研究

客运专线有砟轨道及无砟轨道道岔区的轨道刚度约是区间线路的2~3倍,差别较大,均需要通过设置轨道刚度过渡段来减轻轮轨动力作用,改善行车的平稳性。从保证行车安全性和舒适性、降低对轨下基础动力冲击作用的角度,提出轨道刚度过渡段动力性能的评价指标以及过渡段合理长度的确定方法,既要满足钢轨挠度变化率小于0.3 mm.m-1的要求,还应满足轮轨垂向力衰减距离以及车体加速度衰减时间的要求。应用车辆-轨道耦合动力学模型与理论,进行客运专线道岔前后轨道不同刚度过渡段方案的动力学分析。结果表明:客运专线道岔前后轨道刚度过渡段可采用轨道刚度分级过渡的方法,每一级刚度取15个轨枕间距,并依据实际线路轨道刚度差的大小在3~6级中完成过渡。     

机车车辆与线路最佳匹配设计原理、方法及工程实践

提出了采用系统设计思想实现机车车辆与线路最佳匹配设计的理念,论述了匹配设计的基本原理与设计方法。指出:机车车辆系统和线路系统在动态性能设计上要相互适应、相互匹配。无论设计主体对象是机车车辆还是线路,都必须将对方视为主体对象的动态环境,通过机车车辆—轨道耦合动力学理论方法考虑对方的动态影响因素,进行主体对象动力性能优化设计,同时分析评估主体设计对象对另一系统的动态作用影响,再根据动态作用影响的评估结果改进主体对象结构设计参数,如此反复,直到整体系统动态性能最优为止。由此开发了机车车辆—轨道耦合动力学仿真设计技术平台。经在若干铁路重大工程线路设计中运用,取得了显著成效。     

缓解快速线路曲线入口结构性晃车问题的探讨

为减小列车由直线进入曲线时车轮对轨道产生的横向冲击力，对曲线入口的结构性晃车问题进行了分析，进而对轮轨游间及相关技术标准进行了讨论，从机车车辆和线路2个方面提出了建议。     

两栖空气动力艇悬挂系统设计仿真

为了提高两栖空气动力艇在冰雪路面上的通过能力,设计了一种用于两栖空气动力艇的新型独立悬挂系统。在CATIA中建立独立悬挂系统的几何模型,通过CAD/CAE软件的数据接口技术将其导入ADAMS/VIEW环境中进行典型工况条件下的动力学仿真,根据仿真结果对独立悬挂系统进行动力学分析,确定了减震器的阻尼特性以及橡胶衬套的刚度,并验证了该系统中各个构件之间的运动关系。     

Influence of avenue trees on traffic pollutant dispersion in asymmetric street canyons: Numerical modeling with empirical analysis

The dispersion of traffic-related pollutants in urban street canyons is of importance for the health and quality of lives. To reveal the inherent principle, researchers have performed a lot of investigations; many dispersion phenomena have also been assessed during recent years. However, the presence of avenue trees in street canyons and their capacity for pollutant dispersion remains partly addressed. In this study, we investigated the effects of avenue trees in urban street canyons on traffic pollutant dispersion. The dispersion of CO concentration in asymmetric street canyons was simulated under varied situations. The computational results showed a good agreement with the experimental data, and the numerical model was validated to be adequate for investigating the pollutant dispersion in street canyons. Then, the numerical simulations were extended to explore the impacts of the effects of avenue trees on CO dispersion; the results indicated that avenue trees generally increase CO concentrations in asymmetric street canyons. When the wind direction is perpendicular to the street axis, a terraced building raises pollutant concentrations at the windward wall and reduces concentration at the leeward wall on the pedestrian levels. Findings of this study are expected to provide significant insight into urban road design and strategy making for avenue tree planting, particularly under the existing worldwide sustainable low-carbon urban development.     

A discrete choice framework for modeling and forecasting the adoption and diffusion of new transportation services

Major technological and infrastructural changes over the next decades, such as the introduction of autonomous vehicles, implementation of mileage-based fees, carsharing and ridesharing are expected to have a profound impact on lifestyles and travel behavior. Current travel demand models are unable to predict long-range trends in travel behavior as they do not entail a mechanism that projects membership and market share of new modes of transport (Uber, Lyft, etc.). We propose integrating discrete choice and technology adoption models to address the aforementioned issue. In order to do so, we build on the formulation of discrete mixture models and specifically Latent Class Choice Models (LCCMs), which were integrated with a network effect model. The network effect model quantifies the impact of the spatial/network effect of the new technology on the utility of adoption. We adopted a confirmatory approach to estimating our dynamic LCCM based on findings from the technology diffusion literature that focus on defining two distinct types of adopters: innovator/early adopters and imitators. LCCMs allow for heterogeneity in the utility of adoption for the various market segments i.e. innovators/early adopters, imitators and non-adopters. We make use of revealed preference (RP) time series data from a one-way carsharing system in a major city in the United States to estimate model parameters. The data entails a complete set of member enrollment for the carsharing service for a time period of 2.5 years after being launched. Consistent with the technology diffusion literature, our model identifies three latent classes whose utility of adoption have a well-defined set of preferences that are significant and behaviorally consistent. The technology adoption model predicts the probability that a certain individual will adopt the service at a certain time period, and is explained by social influences, network effect, socio-demographics and level-of-service attributes. Finally, the model was calibrated and then used to forecast adoption of the carsharing system for potential investment strategy scenarios. A couple of takeaways from the adoption forecasts were: (1) placing a new station/pod for the carsharing system outside a major technology firm induces the highest expected increase in the monthly number of adopters; and (2) no significant difference in the expected number of monthly adopters for the downtown region will exist between having a station or on-street parking.     

流场控制体对喷水推进器性能预报影响的研究

为准确预报喷水推进器设计工况与非设计工况的水动力性能,采用CFD方法对喷水推进器性能预报所需流场控制体进行了研究.在验证计算方法和数值模型可信的基础上,通过对比不同流场控制体的计算结果,分析了流场控制体对喷水推进器性能预报的影响.首先,确定了设计工况下流场控制体的大小;然后,对非设计工况下流场控制体的选取进行了分析讨论.结果表明,非设计工况下流场控制体的大小对喷水推进器性能预报的影响比设计工况大,而且非设计工况下所需流场控制体要大于设计工况时的情况.     

Dynamics Performance of Subgrade-Tunnel Transition on Chongqing-Suining Ballastless Track

Experiments were conducted on China railway high speed electrical multiple units (EMUs) CRH2 and freight car C80 on Chongqing-Suining high-speed ballastless track. Based on the experimental results, the dynamics performance of cement concrete transition and cement stabilized aggregate transition was analyzed. The results show that the dynamic stress, vibration displacement, vibration velocity, vibration acceleration and other vibration parameters vary steadily on the profile section of transitions, and that at the adjoining position between subgrade and tunnel portal, cement concrete transition has gradual hardness change, whereas cement stabilized aggregate transition exhibits good elasticity, small shock, and small dynamic effect of the cars.     

基于弹性构架的地铁车辆动力学分析

为避免车辆弹性动力学分析中自由度数多、求解方程慢的问题,运用Guyan矩阵缩减理论选出模型中能描述动力学行为的部分。运用Ritz模态向量叠加理论考虑构架的弹性变形对地铁车辆动力学行为的影响。用车辆系统的位形坐标与构架的模态坐标建立刚—柔混合多体系统动力学模型,使自由度得到缩减。从而较快得到地铁车辆具有构架弹性振动的动力学响应,其结果与刚体动力学模型相比有明显差别。