The performance of route modification and demand stabilization strategies in stochastic vehicle routing

A key concern in managing vehicle routing operations under stochastic demands is whether, on the basis of travel distance, route modification yields materially greater logistical efficiency than fixed routes. This research uses statistical calibration as the primary technique to develop a robust and tractable model for estimating this difference in logistical efficiency. Based on features such as the models predictive accuracy and generalizability, it constitutes a substantive improvement over existing models. The present study also expands the range of predictive models relevant to vehicle routing under stochastic demands with models to estimate the transportation and inventory effects of persuading customers to stabilize their ordering patterns.     

A generalized model of pelagic biogeochemistry for the global ocean ecosystem. Part II: Numerical simulations

This paper presents a global ocean implementation of a multi-component model of marine pelagic biogeochemistry coupled on-line with an ocean general circulation model forced with climatological surface fields (PELAgic biogeochemistry for Global Ocean Simulations, PELAGOS). The final objective is the inclusion of this model as a component in an Earth System model for climate studies. The pelagic model is based on a functional stoichiometric representation of marine biogeochemical cycles and allows simulating the dynamics of C, N, P, Si, O and Fe taking into account the variation of their elemental ratios in the functional groups. The model also includes a parameterization of variable chlorophyll/carbon ratio in phytoplankton, carrying chl as a prognostic variable. The first part of the paper analyzes the contribution of non-local advective–diffusive terms and local vertical processes to the simulated chl distributions. The comparison of the three experiments shows that the mean chl distribution at higher latitudes is largely determined by mixing processes, while vertical advection controls the distribution in the equatorial upwelling regions. Horizontal advective and diffusive processes are necessary mechanisms for the shape of chl distribution in the sub-tropical Pacific. In the second part, the results have been compared with existing datasets of satellite-derived chlorophyll, surface nutrients, estimates of phytoplankton community composition and primary production data. The agreement is reasonable both in terms of the spatial distribution of annual means and of the seasonal variability in different dynamical oceanographic regions. Results indicate that some of the model biases in chl and surface nutrients distributions can be related to deficiencies in the simulation of physical processes such as advection and mixing. Other discrepancies are attributed to inadequate parameterizations of phytoplankton functional groups. The model has skill in reproducing the overall distribution of large and small phytoplankton but tends to underestimate diatoms in the northern higher latitudes and overestimate nanophytoplankton with respect to picoautotrophs in oligotrophic regions. The performance of the model is discussed in the context of its use in climate studies and an approach for improving the parameterization of functional groups in deterministic models is outlined.     

Investigations of vehicle securing without lashings for Ro-Ro ships

To reduce the area on deck occupied by each car and the labour and time required for lashing and unlashing cars, it has been proposed by the author that in some conditions, cars on decks could be transported without lashing. To evaluate cargo securing based on this “lashing-free” concept, computational code was developed to calculate the vehicle–deck interactions for various ship motions. The code was structured by incorporating a vehicle model into a piece of ship motion calculation code. A series of time-domain simulations were conducted to evaluate vehicle securing. It was found that for a target ship consisting of a 6000-unit Ro-Ro vessel, vehicle securing is mainly influenced by the ship's rolling motions and is highly dependent on the wave height and loading conditions. It was suggested from the analysis that vehicles could be secured without being lashed in a large area of the ship in specific weather conditions and on some routes with less adverse sea states. However, it is still suggested that conventional lashing holes should be constructed on the deck because in severe sea states the cars will still need to be lashed. The limitations of the current investigations are also presented. The relevant research work was carried out at the Division of Ship Design and Engineering, Department of Shipping and Marine Technology, Chalmers University of Technology.     

A practical assessment of stated preferences methods

Stated preferences data in the form of rankings, ratings and choices were collected in Santiago and discrete choice models estimated with them. The models were compared in terms of accuracy v/s the cost of obtaining the information and models. All methods produced reasonable but different models and fairly close subjective values of time. In terms of production costs the ranking method was a clear looser although the experimental design was slightly biased against it. Finally, the use of computerised interviews is highly recommended particularly for dealing with low income people.     

A stated preference examination of time of travel choice for a recreational trip

A stated preference experiment was performed in Calgary in Canada to examine how people are influenced in the selection of a departure time for a hypothetical trip to see a movie. A total of 635 complete observations were obtained. In each observation the respondent was presented with a set of possible departure time scenarios and asked to indicate the order of preference for these scenarios. Each scenario was described by specifying the automobile travel time, the expected arrival time relative to the movie start time, the parking cost, the probability of being at least ten minutes late for the movie and the length of time the movie had been running. This forced the respondent to trade off between conditions regarding these attributes. Age, gender and frequency of movie attendance were also recorded. The observations thus obtained were used to estimate the parameter values for a range of alternative utility functions in logit models representing this choice behaviour. The results indicate that all of the attributes included have significant effects on departure time choice in the situation being considered. They also indicate that travellers are prepared to arrive roughly two minutes early for each minute of travel time saved; that the money value of driving time for trips to recreational activities is about half that for trips to work; that one additional percent in the probability of arriving late is equivalent to roughly 0.20 Canadian dollars or 1.93 minutes drive time; and that there is a preference for a non-zero expected early arrival time regardless of the associated probability of arriving late. Some of these results are novel and others are consistent with findings for work trips in work done by others, which is seen to add credence to the approach being used here.     

Models and methodology for optimal trajectory generation in safety-critical road–vehicle manoeuvres

There is currently a strongly growing interest in obtaining optimal control solutions for vehicle manoeuvres, both in order to understand optimal vehicle behaviour and, perhaps more importantly, to devise improved safety systems, either by direct deployment of the solutions or by including mimicked driving techniques of professional drivers. However, it is non-trivial to find the right combination of models, optimisation criteria, and optimisation tools to get useful results for the above purposes. Here, a platform for investigation of these aspects is developed based on a state-of-the-art optimisation tool together with adoption of existing vehicle chassis and tyre models. A minimum-time optimisation criterion is chosen for the purpose of gaining an insight into at-the-limit manoeuvres, with the overall aim of finding improved fundamental principles for future active safety systems. The proposed method to trajectory generation is evaluated in time-manoeuvres using vehicle models established in the literature. We determine the optimal control solutions for three manoeuvres using tyre and chassis models of different complexities. The results are extensively analysed and discussed. Our main conclusion is that the tyre model has a fundamental influence on the resulting control inputs. Also, for some combinations of chassis and tyre models, inherently different behaviour is obtained. However, certain variables important in vehicle safety-systems, such as the yaw moment and the body-slip angle, are similar for several of the considered model configurations in aggressive manoeuvring situations.     

Cyclic storm loading soil-structure interaction for a three independent leg jack-up

A 2-D analysis of the soil-structure interaction for a jack-up platform is presented. The special features of the analysis are:

• -soil behaviour modelling under cyclic loading uses elasto-plastic equations with a multiple yield surface and kinematical hardening;

• -the study is not executed on a single isolated spud-can, but on a more comprehensive structural model including the soil and a 2-D reduction of a complete jack-up structure;

• -the loading history consists of some one-hundred cycles representing two storm sea states separated by small set-up cycles.

The main result is that the bottom fixity displayed during the first storm is not significantly degraded during the second storm, even though irrecoverable displacements and rotations occur.     

Impact of phytoplankton community size on a linked global ocean optical and ecosystem model

We isolated the effect phytoplankton cell size has on varying remote sensing reflectance spectra (R_rs(λ)) in the presence of optically active constituents by using optical and radiative transfer models linked in an offline diagnostic calculation to a global biogeochemical/ecosystem/circulation model with explicit phytoplankton size classes. Two case studies were carried out, each with several scenarios to isolate the effects of chlorophyll concentration, phytoplankton cell size, and size-varying phytoplankton absorption on R_rs(λ). The goal of the study was to determine the relative contribution of phytoplankton cell size and chlorophyll to overall R_rs(λ) and to understand where a standard band ratio algorithm (OC4) may under/overestimate chlorophyll due to R_rs(λ) being significantly affected by phytoplankton size. Phytoplankton cell size was found to contribute secondarily to R_rs(λ) variability and to amplify or dampen the seasonal cycle in R_rs(λ), driven by chlorophyll. Size and chlorophyll were found to change in phase at low to mid-latitudes, but were anti-correlated or poorly correlated at high latitudes. Phytoplankton size effects increased model calculated R_rs(443) in the subtropical ocean during local spring through early fall months in both hemispheres and decreased R_rs(443) in the Northern Hemisphere high latitude regions during local summer to fall months. This study attempts to tease apart when/where variability about the OC4 relationship may be associated with cell size variability. The OC4 algorithm may underestimate [Chl] when the fraction of microplankton is elevated, which occurs in the model simulations during local spring/summer months at high latitudes in both hemispheres.