基于主成分分析的舰船装备维修费组合预测

针对基于回归的组合预测模型,由于舰船装备维修费预测时可利用的样本小、可用的单项预测方法多,容易导致预测模型的数量比用于组合预测的样本数量多,出现回归系数无法估计的问题。在建立基于回归的舰船装备维修费组合预测模型前,首先对各单项预测方法预测结果进行主成分分析,建立舰船装备维修费实际值在选取主成分上的回归模型,给出基于主成分分析的组合预测模型;然后针对主成分分析中根据主成分的累积贡献率确定主成分数量具有一定的主观性,建议采用AIC确定主成分的数量;最后,采用实例对给出的方法进行分析和验证。结果表明:在舰船装备维修费组合预测中,该方法不仅解决了预测模型多于用来组合预测的样本数量问题,而且还可以解决单项预测方法之间的共线性问题,且其预测性能明显优于常用的组合预测模型。     

基于元技术的海洋环境监测系统能力分析

海洋环境监测系统的能力分析直接关乎船舶工程等相关产业的发展、海洋资源的合理利用以及海洋生态系统建设。文章在关键技术等概念基础上,提出体系工程中元技术概念;结合DEMATEL方法分析元技术的集成成熟度,给出体系工程能力测评范式,并据此分析了MECMS设计阶段的体系能力。结果表明:在MECMS设计阶段需要重视对时域频域处理技术、时空处理技术以及信号截获技术等原因技术的把握。     

基于信息系统的炮兵指挥信息能力评估研究

为提高基于信息系统的体系作战能力,对炮兵指挥信息能力构成进行了全面分析,建立了指挥信息能力评估指标体系,结合指挥信息对抗能力指标体系实例,引入云重心评判法对其进行科学评估,验证该方法的有效性,并得出结论为我军炮兵指挥信息系统建设提供了有益参考。     

驻船厂军事代表室开展舰船监造项目信息管理的顶层设计

本文主要介绍了舰船承造船厂军事代表室开展舰船监造项目沟通与信息管理的做法,并对建立项目管理信息系统进行了分析与设计,重点对舰船产品进度和质量等项目信息进行了管理和监控,提高了舰船监造质量。     

高精度随动系统的变结构控制

陀螺稳定平台控制系统是控制平台框架系统快速跟踪陀螺仪的高精度随动系统,是保证平台正常工作和精度的重要系统。用传统的PID调节器可以满足工作在系统线性区的要求。由于放大器、电机等存在饱和特性,因而在系统启动和随大的干扰产生大偏角时,系统将进入非线性区,PID调节器将难以满足稳定性的要求。滑模变结构控制器对非线性具有很好的适应性,对系统启动初始偏角没有限制要求,本文将应用变结构控制的方法对平台的控制系统进行设计。     

信息安全技术在沈阳地铁10号线信号系统中的应用研究

按照信息安全技术标准的要求,分析目前已运营的城市轨道交通信号系统在安全防护方面存在的问题。根据分析结果,建立沈阳地铁10号线信号系统的信息安全方案模型,并从技术和管理2个方面进行研究,使其满足信息安全等级保护三级的要求。     

SiC功率器件在轨道交通行业中的应用

为解决轨道交通牵引及辅助系统的轻量化等问题,宽禁带半导体器件如SiC器件的应用需求越来越大。SiC材料具有禁带宽度大、击穿场强高、电子饱和漂移速率快等特性,能满足在中大功率、高温、高频条件下工作的应用要求。简述了SiC器件相比传统硅基器件的突出优势及商业化和实验室研发情况,介绍了SiC功率器件在轨道交通行业中的发展现状,同时对其在未来轨道交通装备业的发展提出了建议和展望。     

Fatigue damage estimation in non-linear systems using a combination of Monte Carlo simulation and the First Order Reliability Method

For non-linear systems the estimation of fatigue damage under stochastic loadings can be rather time-consuming. Usually Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is applied, but the coefficient-of-variation (COV) can be large if only a small set of simulations can be done due to otherwise excessive CPU time. The reason is that the fatigue damage estimation is very sensitive to the largest values from the simulations. The paper suggests the additional use of the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) to get a better estimation of the tail in the distribution of the estimated fatigue damage and thereby reducing the COV. For a specific example dealing with stresses in a tendon in a tension leg platform the COV is thereby reduced by a factor of three.     

Towards data-driven car-following models

Car following models have been studied with many diverse approaches for decades. Nowadays, technological advances have significantly improved our traffic data collection capabilities. Conventional car following models rely on mathematical formulas and are derived from traffic flow theory; a property that often makes them more restrictive. On the other hand, data-driven approaches are more flexible and allow the incorporation of additional information to the model; however, they may not provide as much insight into traffic flow theory as the traditional models. In this research, an innovative methodological framework based on a data-driven approach is proposed for the estimation of car-following models, suitable for incorporation into microscopic traffic simulation models. An existing technique, i.e. locally weighted regression (loess), is defined through an optimization problem and is employed in a novel way. The proposed methodology is demonstrated using data collected from a sequence of instrumented vehicles in Naples, Italy. Gipps’ model, one of the most extensively used car-following models, is calibrated against the same data and used as a reference benchmark. Optimization issues are raised in both cases. The obtained results suggest that data-driven car-following models could be a promising research direction.     

Stability of transportation networks under adaptive routing policies

Growing concerns regarding urban congestion, and the recent explosion of mobile devices able to provide real-time information to traffic users have motivated increasing reliance on real-time route guidance for the online management of traffic networks. However, while the theory of traffic equilibria is very well-known, fewer results exist on the stability of such equilibria, especially in the context of adaptive routing policy. In this work, we consider the problem of characterizing the stability properties of traffic equilibria in the context of online adaptive route choice induced by GPS-based decision making. We first extend the recent framework of “Markovian Traffic Equilibria” (MTE), in which users update their route choice at each intersection of the road network based on traffic conditions, to the case of non-equilibrium conditions, while preserving consistency with known existence and uniqueness results on MTE. We then exhibit sufficient conditions on the network topology and the latency functions for those MTEs to be stable in the sense of Lyapunov for a single destination problem. For various more restricted classes of network topologies motivated by the observed properties of travel patterns in the Singapore network, under certain assumptions we prove local exponential stability of the MTE, and derive analytical results on the sensitivity of the characteristic time of convergence to network and traffic parameters. The results proposed in this work are illustrated and validated on synthetic toy problems as well as on the Singapore road network with real demand and traffic data.