State-dependent congestion pricing with reference-dependent preferences

Demand and capacity fluctuations are common for roads and other congestible facilities. With ongoing advances in pricing technology and ways of communicating information to prospective users, state-dependent congestion pricing is becoming practical. But it is still rare or nonexistent in many potential applications. One explanation is that people dislike uncertainty about how much they will pay. To explore this idea, a model of reference-dependent preferences is developed based on Köszegi and Rabin (2006). Using a facility yields an “intrinsic” utility and a “gain-loss” utility measured relative to the probability distribution over states of utility outcomes. Two types of preferences are analyzed: bundled preferences in which gains and losses are perceived for overall utility, and unbundled preferences in which gains and losses are perceived separately for the toll and other determinants of utility.Tolls are chosen to maximize total expected utility plus revenues. With bundled preferences the toll is set above the Pigouvian level when usage conditions are good, and below it when conditions are bad, in order to reduce fluctuations in utility. With unbundled preferences the direction of toll adjustment is less clear and depends on whether supply or demand is variable. For both types of preferences tolls are sensitive to the strength of gain-loss utility. If gain-loss utility is moderately strong, a state-independent toll can be optimal.     

The socio-cognitive links between road pricing acceptability and changes in travel-behavior

The objective of this study is to examine the effect of road pricing on people’s tendency to adapt their current travel behavior. To this end, the relationship between changes in activity-travel behavior on the one hand and public acceptability and its most important determinants on the other are investigated by means of a stated adaptation experiment. Using a two-stage hierarchical model, it was found that behavioral changes themselves are not dependent on the perceived acceptability of road pricing itself, and that only a small amount of the variability in the behavioral changes were explained by socio-cognitive factors. The lesson for policy makers is that road pricing charges must surpass a minimum threshold in order to entice changes in activity-travel behavior and that the benefits of road pricing should be clearly communicated, taking into account the needs and abilities of different types of travelers. Secondly, earlier findings concerning the acceptability of push measures were validated, supporting transferability of results. In line with other studies, effectiveness, fairness and personal norm all had a significant direct impact on perceived acceptability. Finally, the relevance of using latent factors rather than aggregate indicators was underlined.     

前言

基于RP(Revealed Preference)和SP(Stated Preference)调查数据，利用潜在类别模型对高铁旅客进行细分，得到旅客对平行车次不同服务属性，如列车运行时间、发车时段和舒适度的偏好程度，并对其进行量化；引入收益管理，以多列车整体收益最大为目标，构建平行车次动态差别定价模型，并设计模拟退火算法进行求解；最后，通过京沪高铁进行实例验证.结果表明：与固定票价进行客票销售相比，所提方案能够适应高峰期和平峰期不同客流特点，提高铁路客票总收益，为高铁平行车次灵活定价提供参考.     

Pricing local emission exposure of road traffic: An agent-based approach

This paper proposes a new approach to iteratively calculate local air pollution exposure tolls in large-scale urban settings by taking the exposure times and locations of individuals into consideration. It explicitly avoids detailed air pollution concentration calculations and is therefore characterized by little data requirements, reasonable computation times for iterative calculations, and open-source compatibility. In a first step, the paper shows how to derive time-dependent vehicle-specific exposure tolls in an agent-based model. It closes the circle from the polluting entity, to the receiving entity, to damage costs, to tolls, and back to the behavioral change of the polluting entity. In a second step, the approach is applied to a large-scale real-world scenario of the Munich metropolitan area in Germany. Changes in emission levels, exposure costs, and user benefits are calculated. These figures are compared to a flat emission toll, and to a regulatory measure (a speed reduction in the inner city), respectively. The results indicate that the flat emission toll reduces overall emissions more significantly than the exposure toll, but its exposure cost reductions are rather small. For the exposure toll, overall emissions increase for freight traffic which implies a potential conflict between pricing schemes to optimize local emission exposure and others to abate climate change. Regarding the mitigation of exposure costs caused by urban travelers, the regulatory measure is found to be an effective strategy, but it implies losses in user benefits.     

The Smeed Report 50 years on: a role for the workplace parking levy?

Fifty years ago, Reuben Smeed chaired a study and produced a Report on the Economic and Technical Possibilities of Road Pricing. This report was to consider different methods of charging, including road pricing, to see if different pricing methods could reduce the problems associated with congestion as opposed to the traditional methods in place such as fuel tax. Since that time, various attempts have been made to introduce road pricing schemes but with only modest success so far. By contrast parking policies, a second-best alternative to road pricing, have been extensively used by local authorities as a means of managing congestion. The effectiveness of such policies, however, has been limited by an increase in the proportion of privately owned non-residential parking which is not under the control of local authorities. The aim of this paper is to present the results of an early-stage, post-implementation study of the Nottingham Workplace Parking Levy (WPL) – a measure that charges employers for the number of parking spaces they provide for their staff. Particular emphasis is placed on why a WPL was seen as being favourable compared to a road pricing alternative. The reason for this was that it could be introduced in a shorter time frame and at a lower cost, thus making it a lower risk option when compared with road pricing.     

Opportunities for collaboration between infrastructure agencies and conservation groups: Road-stream crossings in Oklahoma

Rivers and streams worldwide are highly fragmented by dams and road crossings, and there is a pressing need to retrofit the most problematic structures to ensure aquatic organism passage. At the same time, a majority of the transportation infrastructure within developed nations is beyond its projected lifespan and significant investments will be needed to ensure that this transportation infrastructure remains safe and functional. Historically, these two problems have been addressed separately. Here, we use a rapid survey methodology to identify road-stream crossings that are likely high-priority projects for both conservation and infrastructure agencies. We conducted a field assessment of more than 700 road-stream crossings across Oklahoma to determine if they blocked fish movements and to determine their physical condition. We then developed an index of ecological impact, and an index of infrastructure condition, based on physical variables measured at each crossing. This survey revealed a subset of crossings that are both fragmenting the river network and in poor physical condition. These crossings are high-priority locations where culvert replacement may have both high ecosystem benefit and would eliminate a piece of transportation infrastructure with a high risk of failure. We discuss opportunities for cost-sharing between conservation and transportation agencies.     

低排放区和拥堵收费国际经验

伴随中国快速城镇化与机动化进程，严重的空气污染和交通拥堵造成巨大的社会经济损失，缓堵减排需求迫在眉睫。低排放区和拥堵收费政策在许多发达国家和地区被验证能有效缓堵。首先探讨伦敦、新加坡和斯德哥尔摩3个城市成功实施低排放区和拥堵收费政策的特点和经验。总结成功实施缓堵减排政策的关键要素，包括立法保障与领导意志、公众宣传与信息公开、综合性配套政策、精细化管理以及拥堵收费与低排放区有效结合等。基于此，探索缓堵减排政策在中国的应用实践，总结中国低排放区和拥堵收费的方案设计流程。最后，从法律法规、体制机制、效果评估和公众宣传等方面提出相应的政策建议，以应对缓堵减排政策实施过程中可能遇到的问题与挑战。     

Transport infrastructure costs in low-carbon pathways

The rate and manner in which transport infrastructure (e.g. roads, railway tracks, airports) is deployed, will play an important role in determining energy demand, greenhouse gas emissions and the economic impact of the transport sector. This paper describes an exercise where the costs of infrastructure deployment for the transport sector have been incorporated into the IMACLIM-R Global E3 IAM. In addition to adding these costs, the modelling of the criteria for the deployment of infrastructure for roads has also been improved. It is found that this model recalibration results in a more accurate baseline as compared to historically observed data (2001–2013) for investments in energy demand, road infrastructure, and passenger kilometers travelled. Regarding macroeconomic effects, it is found that the imposition of a carbon emission trajectory to 2100 cause GDP to decrease relative to the newly calibrated baseline – this is a standard IAM result. However, when the deployment of infrastructure for roads and air travel is further constrained, the GDP loss is less than with a fixed carbon emission trajectory only. This is because early restriction of infrastructure for roads and air travel allows an expansion of public transport infrastructure which is adequate to meet low-carbon transport service demand whereas when less public transport infrastructure is available, more costly mitigation investments must be made in other parts of the economy. This suggests that restricting infrastructure deployment as a complementary policy to carbon pricing, lowers the cost of mitigation.     

Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?

Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is widely used in public decision making on infrastructure investments. However, the demand forecasts, cost estimates, benefit valuations and effect assessments that are conducted as part of CBAs are all subject to various degrees of uncertainty. The question is to what extent CBAs, given such uncertainties, are still useful as a way to prioritize between infrastructure investments, or put differently, how robust the policy conclusions of CBA are with respect to uncertainties. Using simulations based on real data on national infrastructure plans in Sweden and Norway, we study how investment selection and total realized benefits change when decisions are based on CBA assessments subject to several different types of uncertainty. Our results indicate that realized benefits and investment selection are surprisingly insensitive to all studied types of uncertainty, even for high levels of uncertainty. The two types of uncertainty that affect results the most are uncertainties about investment cost and transport demand. Provided that decisions are based on CBA outcomes, reducing uncertainty is still worthwhile, however, because of the huge sums at stake. Even moderate reductions of uncertainties about unit values, investment costs, future demand and project effects may increase the realized benefits infrastructure investment plans by tens or hundreds of million euros. We conclude that, despite the many types of uncertainties, CBA is able to fairly consistently separate the wheat from the chaff and hence contribute to substantially improved infrastructure decisions.     

引入价格窗的定制公交线路优化研究

基于公共交通的公益性,综合考虑乘客与公交企业之间的权衡关系,以保证企业运营成本与服务更多乘客为目标,在浮动票价机制的框架下研究定制公交的线路优化问题。首先,引入价格窗概念,以描述乘客出行过程中的支付意愿,并定义基于时空窗与价格窗的出行需求特征;提 出超额均摊的票价支付假设规则,以在保证出行的基础上支付最少费用。其次,构建引入价格窗的整数线性规划模型,以乘客出行的时空窗和价格窗为输入,以企业运营成本最小化和服务乘客数最大化为目标,通过运营盈利约束来保证企业的运营成本,联合优化乘客-车辆匹配和车辆路径两个子问题。最后,采用GAMS软件进行建模和求解,在Sioux Falls网络开展算例分析。结果 表明,引入浮动票价机制可以服务更多的乘客,进而增加企业的运营收入,且在价格窗上界一定 的增幅内,所服务乘客数和企业的运营收入随价格窗上界增幅的扩大而增加。