城市森林保护区道路交通规划——以九峰城市森林保护区道路交通规划为例

利用城区周边山体、植被等自然资源,为市民打造一个以森林景观为特色,具备通达性、绿色交通特征的城市森林保护区,是武汉市改善城市环境,将森林引入城市,促进人与自然和谐发展的迫切需要,是创建武汉市山水园林城市,走可持续发展之路的重要举措.着重研究了保护区的内涵、特点及其交通特征,提出保护区道路交通规划的特殊性,从而形成既要体现生态保护,又要体现旅游服务功能的规划理念,以此来指导保护区道路交通系统、道路线形、道路断面等规划设计,实现城市与森林的互动.     

Identifying Suitable Sites for Macroalgae Cultivation on the Swedish West Coast

Special attention has been paid to sustainable macroalgae cultivation in Europe. The question on where suitable cultivation areas lie, without conflicting with current marine socio-economic activities and respecting the environment, remains a great challenge. Considering 13 criteria critical to seaweed farming such as depth, shipping traffic, and distance to ports, this paper aimed to identify suitable and sustainable offshore areas on the West Coast of Sweden for the cultivation of the Sugar Kelp, Saccharina latissima. An integrated approach with the tools geographic information systems (GIS) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA) was used to aggregate the criteria by means of Boolean and weighted linear combination (WLC) techniques. The Boolean method singled out 544?km² as suitable, whereas the WLC method indicated 475?km² as highly suitable. Both techniques complement each other in finding optimal sites. Furthermore, the integrated models excelled in providing an overview for effective spatial decision-making that fosters sustainable development of macroalgae cultivations within marine and coastal systems.

• Highlights

• To the authors’ knowledge no study on seaweed aquaculture site selection has been conducted using such a range of criteria with the purpose of including sustainability aspects within a comparative GIS-MCDA.

• The large areas identified on the West Coast of Sweden as suitable highlight the potential of this new industry and the complexity of associated marine spatial planning.

• Boolean and weighted linear combination methods were applied and compared, providing valuable insights in the selection of methods for spatial decision-making support. These insights should support a more sustainable development of macroalgae cultivation in the region, as well as a more resilient marine spatial planning process for blue growth strategies.

     

改进随机森林-蒙特卡罗法在A型液舱支座结构可靠性分析中的应用

[目的]随着液化天然气(LNG)船舶结构研究和设计深度的提高,需要有能够快速和准确地评估不确定性因素的可靠性分析方法。为此,提出基于改进随机森林-蒙特卡罗(RF-MC)法来解决A型独立液舱支座结构失效概率的计算问题。[方法]首先,根据不确定性因素的概率分布,使用MC法生成样本集;然后,以局部离群因子为准则,筛选出失效面附近的样本点,再对筛选出的样本点进行有限元计算后添加至训练集,通过重复训练随机森林近似模型,直至满足精度要求;最后,使用近似模型判别样本点是否失效,结合MC法计算结构的失效概率。[结果]综合考虑算法的准确率、复杂度和效率并结合算例1和2,可以发现在分析可靠性问题时改进RF-MC法比MC和BP-MC等方法具有更大优势。算例3的应用结果表明了改进RFMC法在A型独立液舱支座结构可靠性分析中的适用性。[结论]研究结果可为LNG船舶的优化设计提供可行的技术方案。     

考虑群体异质性的建成环境与老年人慢行出行关系研究

健康老龄化背景下，慢行出行是提升老年人身心健康、生活品质的重要方式，而建成环境是影响老年人慢行出行的重要因素。本文以2013年南京市老年人出行实测数据为基础，利用潜在类别聚类方法对老年群体进行异质性分析，分类建立随机森林模型研究建成环境指标对不同老年群体慢行出行时间的重要度影响及两者之间的非线性关联。研究结果表明：以性别、是否退休、学历、家庭收入以及学龄前儿童这5个类别变量作为外显变量，可将老年群体划分成两类，各自建立的老年人慢行时间模型整体拟合优度较好；其中，影响第1类老年群体的关键建成环境变量有慢行路网密度、交叉口数和地铁站邻近度，第2类老年群体慢行出行时间的影响因素主要有地铁站邻近度、慢行路网密度和住宅密度，另外同一建成环境指标对两类老年群体慢行出行时间的非线性关联也不相同。研究结果可为制定差异化的老年宜居环境优化政策，提升老年人生活品质以及实现健康老龄化提供理论依据。     

基于太阳辐射效应校正的高原铁路廊道地热异常区识别研究

为提高热红外遥感识别地热异常区的准确度，选取高原铁路廊道作为研究区，基于Landsat8数据采用单窗算法反演得到白天地表温度，并基于ECO2LSTE数据得到夜间地表温度；然后，利用随机森林方法选取海拔、坡度、坡向、累积太阳辐射、NDVI、NDSI、NDWI以及反照率作为输入因子，得到去除太阳辐射效应的地表温度；最后，选取去除太阳辐射效应的地表温度、断裂密度、到水系距离和地磁异常作为指标因子，采用确定性系数模型定量识别地热异常区，并利用已知温泉点对结果进行评价。结果表明： 1）随机森林方法可有效去除非地热引起的温度变化，减弱太阳辐射效应，提高地热异常区识别的准确度； 2）地热异常区评价结果与已知温泉点分布较为一致，高异常区和中异常区的识别结果可靠； 3）高原铁路廊道主要途经7个地热异常区，经过高异常区和中异常区的廊道长度分别为72 km和125 km，泸定—康定、理塘盆地及周边、巴塘、贡觉、昌都—察雅、八宿、波密—鲁朗是需要重点防范高温热害的区段。研究结果初步实现了高原铁路廊道的地热异常区定量化和精细化识别。     

热带雨林高速公路总体设计理念探讨

思茅至小勐养高速公路是昆曼国际陆路大通道的重要组成部分,沿线具有得天独厚的旅游资源,自然景观、人文景观和名胜古迹相映生辉,其中近22 km的路段还穿越了国家级自然保护区边缘。为把思小高速公路建设成为一条具交通安全、行车舒适、景观协调、绿色生态、旅游观光、可持续发展等特征为一体的高速公路,在设计过程中树立和落实科学发展观,坚持以人为本,贯彻可持续发展的指导思想的设计理念,大胆地尝试和创新,探索出适合可行的环境保护处治方案与措施。同时为今后热带雨林地区公路建设与环境保护的研究积累了十分宝贵的经验。     

Association of reduced visibility with crash outcomes

Most of the information necessary for driving a vehicle is regarded as visual information. In spite of its importance, visibility conditions at the time of a crash are often not documented at a high level of detail. Past studies have not examined the quantified values of visibility and its association with crashes. The current study merged data collected from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) with 2010–2012 Florida crash data. From the thousands of logged weather events compiled by the NOAA, the researchers isolated periods of normal visibility and comparable periods of reduced visibility in a matched-pairs study. The NOAA data provided real visibility score based on the spatiotemporal data of the crashes. Additionally, the crash data, obtained from Roadway Information Database (RID), contains several geometric and traffic variables that allow for effects of factors and visibility. The study aims to associate crash occurrence under different levels of visibility with factors included in the crash database by developing ordinal logistic regression. The intent is to observe how different visibility conditions contribute to a crash occurrence. The findings indicate that the likelihood of a crash increase during periods of low visibility, despite the tendency for less traffic and for lower speeds to prevail during these times. The findings of this study will add valuable knowledge to the realm of the impact of visibility in the way of using and designing appropriate countermeasures.     

基于改进的均值漂移的森林火灾图像提取技术

为了解决呈红色山地路面等对火灾图像提取的干扰问题,考虑林区图像的R通道直方图的分布曲线,采用一种基于均值漂移改进算法,自适应地得到背景与火灾,山地路面的分割闽值T1.通过阈值分割将火灾和山地路面从背景图像中分割出来,再利用改进算法对R通道占比率直方图进行处理,自适应地得到火灾与山地路面的分割阈值T2,从而实现火灾的自适...     

基于风险矩阵的干线公路弯道路段交通冲突风险评估模型

为评估干线公路弯道路段(AHBS)交通冲突风险,基于交通冲突前5 min集计交通流数据、冲突路段道路线形特征和行车环境数据,分别建立交通冲突可能性及严重度评估指标体系。集成运用随机森林模型和多层次模糊综合评价法分别确定交通冲突可能性和严重度等级,进而采用风险矩阵法确定交通冲突风险等级。以云南省元双干线公路为例进行验证。结果表明：基于随机森林模型的交通冲突可能性预测准确率达到84.21%,所提模型能有效评估AHBS交通冲突风险,为干线公路交通事故治理提供理论依据。     

思小高速公路建设对热带雨林地区环境影响及工程措施

通过大量调查思茅-小勐养高速公路沿线热带雨林的自然环境,结合高速公路建设的具体情况,从自然植被、珍稀保护动物、水土流失、水环境等4方面对高速公路建设对热带雨林地区环境的影响做了简单分析。在此基础上给出了一些符合热带雨林地区环境保护的工程措施。