An interdisciplinary study to explore impacts from policies for the introduction of low carbon vehicles

Driven by concerns of climate change, governments across the world are introducing a number of policies to accelerate the uptake of low carbon vehicles (LCVs), with a specific focus on electric motors. However, there is uncertainty in the effectiveness of such policies and technology pathways, which are inherently interlinked. This article considers the short-term situation to 2020 and focuses on the concern that these policies may bring about some disproportionate impacts in society due to changes in mobility. An ethical framework is established that seeks to balance obligations to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and rights to car ownership, then selected policies are modelled within this framework to assess acceptability of implementation. Although these policies are successful in introducing LCVs and reducing GHG emissions, findings also indicate uneven cost burdens and reduced affordability of car ownership. Following this, recommendations for policy amendments and model improvements are made.     

软土地区盖挖逆作施工地铁换乘站变形性状的数值分析

基于三维快速拉格朗日算法原理,结合华东软土地区某盖挖逆作法施工换乘地铁车站工程实际并考虑基坑的周边环境因素,采用FLAC3D数值模拟软件,对盖挖逆作法地铁结构开挖过程中的变形性状进行了数值分析,得到了基坑开挖各阶段的变形场,为地铁车站的设计和施工提供了较好的控制结构变形量的方案,以确保基坑开挖对周边环境的影响最小,并保证基坑安全施工。     

Lagrangian flow in the California Undercurrent, an observation and model comparison

During the period 1992–1998, 38 isobaric RAFOS floats were deployed to sample the subsurface flow of the California Undercurrent. The deployments, released over the California continental slope west of San Francisco, have sampled robust year-round poleward subsurface flow associated with the Undercurrent most seasons and the combined inshore current and Undercurrent in winter. Two other types of flow have been seen: a region of weak flow with little net displacement just west of the California Undercurrent, and an active westward propagating eddy field. This eddy field appears to be the primary mechanism for moving floats from the Undercurrent into the ocean interior. The observations and statistics from the RAFOS floats are compared with Lagrangian estimates of particles tracked in a global high resolution ocean simulation in order to evaluate the fidelity of the model along an eastern boundary. The results show that the model reproduces the general character of the flow reasonably well, but underestimates both the mean and eddy energies by a substantial amount.     

托运人在不同时空下的选择行为差异揭示

某一因素对托运人选择行为的影响会随着空间和时间变化. 既有研究多关注特定空间或时间的托运人选择行为,较少进行横向(空间)和纵向(时间)比较. 为探索托运人选择行为差异及变化规律,采集不同时空的5 个数据集,构建多类线性或非线性效用函数的多项 Logit 模型及混合Logit 模型. 结果表明：在空间维度,某一地区托运人选择行为与其他地区显著不同;在时间维度,伴随货运业快速发展,货运方式选择模型适用年限呈缩短趋势.     

Variability of the Bohai Sea circulation based on model calculations

The circulation and the hydrography of the Bohai Sea are simulated with the Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM). The model is three-dimensional, prognostic baroclinic and has a resolution of 5 min in latitude and longitude and 10 layers in the vertical. It is initialised and forced with the five main tidal constituents, temperature and salinity distributions taken from the Levitus database, monthly mean river run-off values and European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) re-analysed data of air pressure, wind stress and of those parameters relevant for the calculation of heat fluxes. The simulation period covers 14 years from 1980 to 1993 due to the availability of the time-dependent ECMWF forcing.The results are analysed by means of time series and EOFs focussing on the interpretation of fluctuations with periods above the tidal cycle. Furthermore, tracer simulations are carried out and turnover times are calculated in order to evaluate the importance of these fluctuations on the renewal and transport of water masses in the Bohai Sea.One of the major outcomes of the investigation is the overall dominance of the annual cycle in all hydrographic parameters and the importance of stochastic weather fluctuations on the transport of water masses in the Bohai Sea.     

Large deformation coupled analysis of embedded pipeline – Soil lateral interaction

Subsea pipelines buried in the seabed may undergo large lateral displacement under environmental, operational, and accidental loads at different interaction rates and hence different drainage conditions. The undrained shear strength is commonly used in practice to assess the pipe-soil interaction assuming a sufficiently high displacement rate. This approach neglects consolidation effects and the rate-dependent response of the soil and may significantly underestimates the lateral resistance for a pipeline moving slowly relative to the ground. In this study, a coupled large deformation finite element (LDFE) framework is developed via a remeshing and interpolation technique with small strain (RITSS). A Modified Cam-Clay (MCC) model with efficient numerical integration is used. The proposed coupled LDFE framework is verified against selected physical model tests. Effects of the interaction rate and hence drainage condition on the p-y curve, excess pore pressure generation and dissipation, and failure mechanisms are discussed. An empirical relationship between the ultimate resistance and the normalized velocity of the pipe (denoting the drainage condition) is proposed, which may be applied for the integrity and safety analysis of buried pipes in landslide or fault-crossing regions.     

Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in a coastal zone

A method is introduced to determine the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which provides a measure of the uncertainty of the model as a result of the uncertainties of the input parameters.In addition to a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method was applied to an oil spill that occurred in 1989 near Sines in the southwestern coast of Portugal. This model represented well the distinction between a wind driven part that remained offshore, and a tide driven part that went ashore. For both parts, the method defined two trajectory envelopes, one calculated exclusively with the wind fields, and the other using wind and tidal currents. In both cases reasonable approximation to the observed results was obtained.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling proved to give a better interpretation of the trajectories that were simulated by the oil spill model.     

Determinants of modal choice in freight transport

In the next few years, exciting developments in the field of freight transport are likely to occur. The Channel Tunnel will be perceived as giving railways much greater distance of operation, compared to the current train ferry to/from Great Britain. The further development of swap-body technology will allow easier modal transfer and the creation, in 1992, of a single market in Europe will transform the pattern of trade. All of these are likely to have significant impacts on modal choice, and hence modal split, in freight transport. Reappraisal by many firms of the modes of transport used is likely but will it result in a net transfer of freight from road to rail and, if so, to what extent? To answer such questions, an accurate and reliable method of predicting modal split is required. Research in the past has concentrated on the development of modal split models based on generalised costs. These fail to explain adequately the prevalence of road freight in the UK. From surveys of freight managers within industry, it is clear that models to date rely too heavily on the economic cost factor and too little on behavioural factors (Jeffs 1985). This paper derives from a recent study of freight transport modal choice from the standpoint of the transport decision-maker within the firm. It attempts to shed light on the actual parameters which should be incorporated into a modal split model. Many variables appear to exert an influence on modal choice decision-making process. However, it is possible to categorise them into six main groups, namely: customer-requirements; product-characteristics; company structure/organisation; government interventions; available transport facilities; and perceptions of the decision-maker him/herself. It is the interactions and inter-relationships between these which ultimately determine freight modal split. This study has shown that the relationship between the outcome of the transport decision process and the values of particular determinants of modal split is not straight-forward, due to the complexity and variety of interactions involved. Perhaps one of the main reasons for researchers' failure hitherto to develop a successful modal-split model has been the preoccupation with techniques that rely on the development of common metric (e.g. generalised cost), which has led to the exclusion of some important explanatory variables along quite different dimensions. Another important issue concerns the appropriate level of aggregation. In order not to reduce the explanatory power of the key variables, it is important to work at a disaggregate level, although this does make substantial demands on data. The use of factor analysis enables both the aggregation of information without loss of behavioural reality and the specification of variables in terms of a common metric. In conclusion, freight transport has usually been examined within too narrow a framework. It must be placed firmly within the context of the total industrial process. The demand for freight transport is directly influenced by the level, composition and geographical distribution of production and consumption activities. Freight flows are complex and so it is highly unlikely that a universal mode-choice model can ever be developed. Future research should, therefore, be directed towards developing partial models in response to specific needs of those involved in decision-taking in the freight sector.     

Simulation model of an electrohydraulic-actuated double-clutch transmission vehicle: modelling and system design

Automated and manual transmissions are the main link between engine and powertrain. The technical term when the transmission provides the desired torque during all possible driving conditions is denoted as powertrain matching. Recent developments in the last years show that double-clutch-transmissions (DCTs) are a reasonable compromise in terms of production costs, shifting quality, drivability and fuel efficiency. They have several advantages compared to other automatic transmissions (AT). Most DCTs nowadays consist of a hydraulic actuation control unit, which controls the clutches of the gearbox in order to induce a desired drivetrain torque into the driveline. The main functions of hydraulic systems are manifold: they initiate gear shifts, they provide sufficient oil for lubrication and they control the shift quality by suitably providing a desired oil flow or pressure for the clutch actuation. In this paper, a mathematical model of a passenger car equipped with a DCT is presented. The objective of this contribution is to get an increased understanding for the dynamics of the hydraulic circuit and its coupling to the vehicle drivetrain. The simulation model consists of a hydraulic and a mechanical domain: the hydraulic actuation circuit is described by nonlinear differential equations and includes the dynamics of the line pressure and the proportional valve, as well as the influence of the pressure reducing valve, pipe resistances and accumulator dynamics. The drivetrain with its gear ratios, moments of inertia, torsional stiffness of the rotating shafts and a simple longitudinal vehicle model represent the mechanical domain. The link between hydraulic and mechanical domain is given by the clutch, which combines hydraulic equations and Newton's laws. The presented mathematical model may not only be used as a simulation model for developing the transmission control software, it may also serve as a virtual layout for the design process phase. At the end of this contribution a parametric study shows the influence of the mechanical components, the accumulator and the temperature of the oil.