Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies.     

Risk assessment framework for exposure of cargo and ports to natural hazards and climate extremes

There is an increase in risks and catastrophic losses in maritime transport including ports and cargo. Significant losses have been associated with large scale natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunami, cyclones, and other extreme weather events. This paper identifies the main gaps in understanding maritime risks in transportation research. The gaps are attributed to insufficient empirical work available from the maritime transport and logistics research community to guide multi-risk and natural hazards impact assessment on seaport and cargo. In addition, disaster studies communities have barely made adequate efforts to understand and assess port and cargo risks arising from multi-hazards and disaster events. This paper examines existing conceptual frameworks concerning exposure and risk assessments of natural catastrophe’s impacts. Furthermore, the paper identifies trends and gaps in risk assessment frameworks in the field of disaster studies that can be beneficial for maritime risk research. The authors propose a new risk assessment framework that can guide future research and multi-hazard risk assessment processes at different scales of maritime risks.     

基于推理映射的云模型控制器研究

介绍了云模型的基本概念和规则推理,分析了云模型推理映射关系,设计出基于线性映射关系的云模型智能控制器,并与相同推理规则的模糊控制系统进行了对比。仿真结果表明该控制器具有较强的鲁棒性。     

船舶舵鳍联合减摇模糊变结构控制研究

分析了船舶运动的非线性模型,根据实际情况进行假设,得到了船舶舵鳍联合减摇控制系统的状态方程,把非线性船舶舵鳍联合控制模型转化为可控正则型;将船舶运动模型看作是由横摇、艏摇、横荡3个子系统构成的大系统,进行了舵鳍联合控制,设计了舵鳍联合控制器和分散非线性变结构控制器,为了改善控制的品质,又进一步提出了模糊趋近律变结构控制的方法,最后针对减摇控制器进行了MATLAB仿真研究。仿真结果表明:舵鳍联合控制器能够很好的抑制船舶的横摇和艏摇,并能尽可能的减小横荡。     

张集铁路旧堡隧道断层破碎带初期支护大变形原因分析及治理措施

旧堡隧道穿越太古代变质岩系,构造发育、岩体破碎,地质条件极差。隧道于DK28+380~DK29+630段穿过断层及其影响带,施工过程中多次发生溜渣突泥突水塌方并引起初支大变形,严重影响施工安全及工程进度。结合该段地质条件,从围岩岩性特点、岩体结构特征、多期构造运动叠加及地下水共同作用等几个方面,探讨该隧道大变形的原因和机制,并阐述了后期施工中采取的加强结构支护、注浆加固、增设临挡护墙等处理对策,对类似工程地质条件地区隧道施工支护有一定的借鉴意义。     

新冠肺炎疫情下对提升交通运输综合执法能力的思考

当前,我国正处于新冠肺炎疫情防控最吃劲的关键时期,同时也是交通运输综合执法改革深入推进的攻坚阶段。面对疫情防控的严峻考验,交通运输综合执法能力的既有短板与疫情防控中暴露出的新问题相互交织,提升交通运输综合执法能力显得十分紧迫而必要。为此,采用文献调查、访谈研究和实证分析等方法,总结了抗击疫情期间的交通运输执法状况,分析了疫情防控对交通运输综合执法能力建设带来的挑战,从完善执法工作机制、提升专业处置能力、严格规范执法行为、创新执法方式方法、强化执法作风建设、建立法律服务体系、强化执法保障等七个方面,就提升交通运输综合执法能力提出了对策建议。     

Optimal planning of liquefied natural gas deliveries

We investigate the problem of designing an optimal annual delivery plan for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). This problem requires determining the long-term cargo delivery dates and the assignment of vessels to the cargoes while accommodating several constraints, including berth availability, liquefaction terminal inventory, planned maintenance, and bunkering requirements. We describe a novel mixed-integer programming formulation that captures important industry requirements and constraints with the objective of minimizing the vessel fleet size. A peculiar property of the proposed formulation is that it includes a polynomial number of variables and constraints and is, in our experience, computationally tractable for large problem instances using a commercial solver. Extensive computational runs demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed model for real instances provided by a major energy company that involve up to 118 cargoes and a 373-day planning horizon.     

《2006年海事劳工公约》履约对策分析

《2006年海事劳工公约》的通过,将对世界海运业产生广泛而深远的影响。文中通过对公约基本内容、主要特点及实施前景等方面的介绍,分析了公约的生效实施对我国航运业产生的影响。在此基础上,进一步从加强公约研究、加快国内相关立法及建立起与国际接轨的相应管理体制和模式等方面提出了应对公约生效实施的对策和建议。     

第34-08版《国际海运危险货物规则》新规定解析

第34-08版《国际海运危险货物规则》将于2010年1月1日全球强制生效。为更好地为我国海事主管机关履约提供参考,文中对本版规则中新增加的规定及要求有所变化的条款进行了重点剖析。针对各项修订,笔者结合海事监管实际,提出了具有针对性的建议。     

The relevance of international transport costs on food prices: Endogenous and exogenous effects

The paper addresses the problem of transport costs and their influence on food prices for South American imports. While transport does not seem to be in the focus of existing analyses, its impact on food prices might be underestimated and even closely linked to the development of commonly mentioned drivers of food prices. Since transport price formation is a function of demand and supply, drivers of food prices are also expected to impact on transport prices. The authors argue that a number of relevant factors that drive transport costs - and in consequence food prices - can be influenced by policy makers. Based on empirical analysis, the authors explain the functioning of the determinants of transport costs in the segment of international shipping, trying to describe their exogenous and endogenous components. These results are discussed in reference to policy development in the region.