小样本情况下的船舶溢油事故风险评价研究

船舶溢油风险评价是一项复杂的多因素问题,是船舶溢油应急管理的关键环节.作为智能搜索算法的代表理论,BP神经网络被认为是进行不确定风险评价的较好方法之一,然而船舶溢油事故属于小样本事件,统计数据往往难以满足BP神经网络要求的样本容量.针对这一困境,首先提出一种利用B样条最小二乘理论的数据拟合法,显著增加样本数.其次,根据船舶溢油特点建立了基于BP神经网络的船舶溢油风险评价模型.最后以上海港近年发生的10起溢油事故为实例,检验了模型的可行性.     

香港地铁的安全风险管理

概述地铁有限公司在香港建立和实践安全风险管理体系的经验、运营铁路安全管理组织架构、工程项目各阶段的安全风险管理规划、主要安全风险管理任务及分析方法等.     

Predictive power of inspection outcomes for future shipping accidents – an empirical appraisal with special attention for human factor aspects

This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies.     

长江南京以下12.5m深水航道二期工程安全应急方案研究

安全应急预案对于提高安全事故中的救援能力、减少安全事故带来的损失具有重要的意义。以南京以下12.5m深水航道二期工程为背景,对拟定的安全应急预案进行分析研究,总结出安全应急预案体系包括综合安全应急预案、专项应急预案和现场处置方案,提炼各层次预案对应的事件类型和具体内容,并编制首接责任制下的应急组织机构和应急流程。     

Predicting queue variability to enable analysis of overload risk

ABSTRACT

Predicting the risk of traffic demands and delays exceeding critical limits at road junctions, airports, hospitals, etc., requires knowing how both mean and variance of queue size vary over time. Microscopic simulation can explore variability but is computationally demanding and gives only sample results. A computationally efficient approximation to the mean is used in many modelling tools, but only empirical extensions for variance in particular situations have been available. The paper derives theoretical formulae for time-dependent and equilibrium variance, believed to be novel and to apply generally to queues covered by the Pollaczek–Khinchin mean formula, and offering possible structural insights. These are applied in an extended approximation giving mutually consistent mean and variance estimates with improved accuracy. Tests on oversaturated peak demand cases are compared with Markov probabilistic simulation, demonstrating accuracy (R^2?>?0.99) for typical random, priority-like (M/M/1) and traffic-signal-like (M/D/1) queues. Implications for risk analysis, planning and policy are considered.     

Risk assessment framework for exposure of cargo and ports to natural hazards and climate extremes

There is an increase in risks and catastrophic losses in maritime transport including ports and cargo. Significant losses have been associated with large scale natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunami, cyclones, and other extreme weather events. This paper identifies the main gaps in understanding maritime risks in transportation research. The gaps are attributed to insufficient empirical work available from the maritime transport and logistics research community to guide multi-risk and natural hazards impact assessment on seaport and cargo. In addition, disaster studies communities have barely made adequate efforts to understand and assess port and cargo risks arising from multi-hazards and disaster events. This paper examines existing conceptual frameworks concerning exposure and risk assessments of natural catastrophe’s impacts. Furthermore, the paper identifies trends and gaps in risk assessment frameworks in the field of disaster studies that can be beneficial for maritime risk research. The authors propose a new risk assessment framework that can guide future research and multi-hazard risk assessment processes at different scales of maritime risks.     

工程总承包模式下项目业主风险防范探讨

文章结合工程总承包的特点,分析了工程总承包模式下项目业主在项目实施过程中所面临的风险,提出了相应的防范风险的措施。     

高埋深软硬岩互层地质条件下敞开式TBM岩爆段施工方法研究

基于喜马拉雅山区域某软硬岩性互层地质条件下的深埋隧洞工程,为解决该区域TBM施工过程中的岩爆问题,统计分析了TBM施工过程中的岩爆特征;在施工过程中开展了多种岩爆规避试验,形成了一套较完整的有针对性的施工方法： 1）岩爆风险巡查常态化; 2）超前地质预报和超前处理措施相结合; 3）支护材料和支护方式合理化; 4）掘进参数动态调整。在后续的施工中加以应用,取得了较好的效果,可以为类似地质条件下的安全施工提供参考。     

Vehicle mass as a determinant of fuel consumption and secondary safety performance

One interaction between environmental and safety goals in transport is found within the vehicle fleet where fuel economy and secondary safety performance of individual vehicles impose conflicting requirements on vehicle mass from an individual’s perspective. Fleet characteristics influence the relationship between the environmental and safety outcomes of the fleet; the topic of this paper. Cross-sectional analysis of mass within the British fleet is used to estimate the partial effects of mass on the fuel consumption and secondary safety performance of vehicles. The results confirmed that fuel consumption increases as mass increases and is different for different combinations of fuel and transmission types. Additionally, increasing vehicle mass generally decreases the risk of injury to the driver of a given vehicle in the event of a crash. However, this relationship depends on the characteristics of the vehicle fleet, and in particular, is affected by changes in mass distribution within the fleet. We confirm that there is generally a trade-off in vehicle design between fuel economy and secondary safety performance imposed by mass. Cross-comparison of makes and models by model-specific effects reveal cases where this trade-off exists in other aspects of design. Although it is shown that mass imposes a trade-off in vehicle design between safety and fuel use, this does not necessarily mean that it imposes a trade-off between safety and environmental goals in the vehicle fleet as a whole because the secondary safety performance of a vehicle depends on both its own mass and the mass of the other vehicles with which it collides.