Error quantification of a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem coastal-ocean model: Part 2. Chlorophyll-a, nutrients and SPM

Marine systems models are becoming increasingly complex and sophisticated, but far too little attention has been paid to model errors and the extent to which model outputs actually relate to ecosystem processes. Here we describe the application of summary error statistics to a complex 3D model (POLCOMS-ERSEM) run for the period 1988–1989 in the southern North Sea utilising information from the North Sea Project, which collected a wealth of observational data. We demonstrate that to understand model data misfit and the mechanisms creating errors, we need to use a hierarchy of techniques, including simple correlations, model bias, model efficiency, binary discriminator analysis and the distribution of model errors to assess model errors spatially and temporally. We also demonstrate that a linear cost function is an inappropriate measure of misfit. This analysis indicates that the model has some skill for all variables analysed. A summary plot of model performance indicates that model performance deteriorates as we move through the ecosystem from the physics, to the nutrients and plankton.     

Establishing and Managing Jurisdiction-wide Traffic Monitoring Systems: North American Experiences

With the rapid motorization process in China, an increasingly complicated highway transportation system has been developed. Reliable national and provincial traffic monitoring systems are becoming necessary. A review of experiences from developed countries in North America can be helpful for highway administrations and agencies to design and implement effective and efficient traffic monitoring systems. Highway agencies in North America have over time developed “standard” traffic monitoring systems based on guidelines from the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO), and the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM). The common practices are adopted based on the analysis of system accuracy, reliability, and cost-effectiveness. The common practices can produce equivalent and comparable traffic summary statistics, which are able to support sensible decision-makings of all aspects of highway transportation. The experiences of highway agencies, current practices, and related guidelines in North America are therefore presented at first. The principles for guiding development and operation of traffic data programs are then summarized and reviewed. The existing problems and active research for traffic monitoring practices and standards are also identified and discussed. It is believed that the reviewed experiences, guidelines, and principles will be helpful for China to establish effective and common-practice based “standard” traffic monitoring systems.     

我国隧道及地下工程发展现状与展望

分析我国隧道及地下工程的现状,包括铁路隧道、公路隧道、地铁隧道、水工隧洞、市政隧道和地下能源洞库等。总结近年来我国隧道及地下工程在各个方面的技术发展与创新,包括:勘测与地质预报、设计方面、施工方面、防灾救灾与通风照明、风险控制与运营管理、防水排水新材料与新工艺应用等方面。重点对施工技术方面的技术发展与创新进行了较为详细的阐述,包括:浅埋暗挖技术,盾构、TBM装备与施工技术,单护盾TBM,敞开式TBM,矩形顶管技术,盾构始发、到达零覆土技术,岩溶隧道处理技术,高地应力隧道变形控制及岩爆处理技术,钻爆法机械化作业线,瓦斯隧道问题,沉管隧道技术等。最后,对我国隧道及地下工程的发展进行展望,认为:特长隧道将成为我国隧道建设的"新常态",地铁工程将持续发展,城市铁路将逐步地下化,城市地下公路会悄然兴起,城市排蓄水工程深层隧道方案值得推广,地下空间开发利用与地下管廊工程将由原来的"单点建设、单一功能、单独运转"转化为"统一规划、多功能集成、规模化建设"的新模式,地下能源洞库将成为必然,南水北调西线工程值得期待,三大海峡通道的建设势在必行,互联互通的国际通道建设其隧道工程将会很多,也会遇到诸多挑战。总之,我国隧道及地下工程事业将会有更大的进步和更为广阔的发展空间。     

复杂条件下北外滩黄浦江防汛墙的设计对策

北外滩滨江作为最后开发的岸线,建成后将成为北外滩世界级会客厅的重要窗口。为应对北外滩复杂的水文、地势地质及周边环境条件,结合实际经验,综合分析工程的水文地质、地形条件,采用水陆域统筹考虑的总体思路、创新的防汛墙设计对策、施工组织方案, 实现了防汛墙的安全建设和按期完工,进而满足北外滩滨江的总体要求,达到了世界级滨水体验的要求。     

结合南水北调工程同步实施金宝航道升级改造

当前,全社会正在积极建设环境友好型和资源节约型社会,建设生态交通、绿色交通、环保交通,在开展水利工程建设时,同时兼顾水运事业的发展需求,切实保护和发展好水运资源是践行科学发展观的要求。结合国家南水北调工程同步实施金宝航道＂六改三＂升级改造,将所有通航设施与南水北调工程同步规划、同步设计、同步建成、同步验收,将通航设施建设运行维护专项资金与国家南水北调工程统筹使用,并对重要通航设施实行统一管理、统一调度,实现对水资源的综合利用,加快构建现代综合运输体系,促进经济结构调整、产业转移、区域经济协调发展。     

宣宁高速宁国北互通立交变异单喇叭设计剖析

随着社会的发展和道路交通日趋现代化,互通立交的设计理念发生了根本的变化,体现在设计中包括安全、环境、功能、用地和成本等多因素的综合考虑和更为灵活的设计手法。以宣城至宁国高速公路宁国北互通立交为例,论述变异单喇叭互通立交的设计新思路,可供同行参考借鉴。     

南水北调中线穿黄隧洞工程的技术难点分析和对策

以南水北调中线穿黄隧洞工程为依托,在施工过程中,针对黄河漫滩内和富水砂层中超深灰浆墙、超深圆形地下连续墙、超深圆形竖井、超深端头加固施工和薄壁环锚预应力内衬施工等施工技术难点,通过分析、研究和试验摸索,采用了灰浆墙泵送置换法、国内最深地下连续墙施工、竖井水下开挖施工、端头受到干扰后二次加固施工、环锚预应力内衬结构施工等技术,施工实践中应用良好,保证了工程的顺利建成。     

深圳市北站公交场站运营服务评估

为保障深圳市北站公交场站安全运营,在全面掌握深圳市北站公交场站及配套工程规划建设的基础上,从公交场站静态设施、动态运行两个层面开展运营服务评估工作,并提出对公交场站的改善建议和措施,最大程度保证枢纽开通后能够提供安全的公交运营服务。     

北美航线——海上丝绸之路的最远端

北美航线是近代以广州为起点的海上丝绸之路的一部分,开端于美国独立后不久的1784年美国商船“中国皇后号”中国广州之旅．通过北美航线,美国商人以北美的人参、皮货交换中国的茶叶、丝绸和瓷器,在大洋彼岸的这两个国家互通有无、平等相处了整整60年光景．并通过分析北美航线的开端、繁盛和衰落,古为今用,说明了“北美航线”的历史作用．     

Wave climate evolution in the Bay of Biscay over two decades

As a background, a review of long term evolution of wave climate in the North Atlantic is discussed. Most studies show that interannual evolutions in wave heights may be related to climatic factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation Index for example.Data of a waverider, consisting of a time series of 20 years in the Bay of Biscay (off Biscarosse, France), are analysed. Based on these data obtained from 1980, wave heights tend to decrease over the period. Also, interannual evolutions exist, particularly in the wave period. The fact that the annual wave periods at Biscarosse are found to vary more significantly than the annual wave heights led us to assume that it is an indirect effect of the evolution in the location of generating storms relative to the buoy. The relationships between wave parameters and climatic factors such as the North Atlantic Oscillation Index and the Garonne discharge have been derived: they show that the NAO index is negatively correlated with the river discharge and positively correlated with the wave period. This result is in agreement with the general climate scheme associated with NAO cycle proposed by Kushnir et al. [Kushnir, Y., Cardone, V.J., Cane, M., 1995. Link between Atlantic climate variability of surface wave height and sea level pressure. Proc. Fourth Int. Workshop on Wave Incasting and forecasting, Banff, AB, Canada, 59–64.]: NAO+ shifts storm tracks northward and dry weather are encountered in the southern part of Europe (conversely NAO− brings storm tracks and rainfall closer). Concerning wave heights, the lack of dependence on NAO index may be associated with compensation effects between wind intensity and storm tracks: wave energy is partly dissipated while reaching the Bay of Biscay in case of severe but distant storms (NAO+), which is not the case for storms generated nearer to the buoy and associated with moderate westerly winds (NOA−). However, the reason of the decrease in wave heights is not clear.