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为识别区域综合交通系统能耗驱动因子,测算其对系统能耗的贡献度,将驱动因素分为规模效应、结构效应和技术效应,采用ASIF数据构造原理和时序列回归法识别各因子的相关性,运用迪氏分解方法建立扩展LMDI分解模型,计算各因子能耗贡献度.计算表明,规模效应和技术效应的影响程度在逐渐减弱,结构效应的影响程度在逐渐增加;运输结构还需要进一步优化,对系统能耗的影响还有很大下降空间;近年来能耗效率已经得到很大提高,但能耗效率对能耗的贡献正在逐渐减弱,未来提高运输强度对降低能耗有明显效果.经实证检验,计算模型可靠、结论可信,能为区域综合低碳交通政策制定提供更科学的依据.     

A Modeling Framework for Bus Rapid Transit Operations Evaluation and Service Planning

Abstract

In this paper, we present a dynamic traffic assignment-simulation modeling framework (DYNASMART-P) to support the evaluation and planning of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) services in urban transportation networks. The model represents the different characteristics associated with BRT operations such as: exclusive right-of-way lanes, limited-stop service, signal prioritization at congested intersections, and enhanced bus stops to reduce passenger boarding times. A set of simulation experiments is conducted using the model to study the impact of introducing a hypothetical BRT service in the Knoxville area in the State of Tennessee. In these experiments, the different operational characteristics of BRT are evaluated in terms of potential impact on transit ridership and on the interacting auto traffic. The results illustrate the advantages of BRT for increasing transit ridership and improving overall system performance.     

The treatment of traffic in the Dutch environmental outlooks: the role of science in policy making and policy evaluation

The Dutch National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection publishes Environmental Outlooks in which 25‐year projections are made. These Outlooks quantifying the environmental problems, form the scientific basis for Dutch environmental policy. Traffic and transport is one of the main sectors causing environmental problems. The emissions and energy use of all relevant categories (road traffic, non‐road traffic) are based on model simulations with models. This paper describes the main models used.

If present policy is implemented only a minority of the environmental targets will be met.

If a sustainable transport system for the Netherlands means a large reducton in CO₂ emissions and energy use after 2010 a stronger emphasis on both technical and non‐technical measures (such as land‐use planning combined with public transport improvements) for the period until 2010 is needed than proposed in the Second Transport Structure Plan, unless a sustainable energy source becomes available.     

快速公交客流量影响因素解释结构模型构建与应用

针对当前交通拥堵、能源紧张、尾气污染等一系列问题,为加快快速公共交通的发展、提高公共交通利用率,本文找出了影响快速公交客流的主要因素,利用系统工程学中的ISM方法,构建了快速公交客流系统解释结构模型,通过分析探讨快速公交客流的主要影响因素,进而明确了各因素间的清晰结构,得到影响快速公交客流量的5级递阶结构;最后找出影响快速公交客流因素的各影响因素.通过影响因素,建立了多元回归模型,从影响程度、影响方向、影响时期分别归类分析.通过分析各层级因素对快速公交客流量的影响,可引导更多居民选择快速公交出行,对缓解交通压力提供了一定方法指导和决策支持.并通过合理分析为快速公交运输服务提出了建议.     

The ‘Four Dimensions of Behaviour’ framework: a tool for characterising behaviours to help design better interventions

This paper sets out the rationale and structure of a tool for assisting policy-makers and practitioners to understand behavioural challenges and open up thinking on the design of effective ‘behaviour change’ interventions. The ‘Four Dimensions of Behaviour’ (4DB) framework is based on the theoretical and empirical research in a range of policy domains including transport and pro-environmental behaviour more generally. The 4DB framework characterises multifaceted behaviours along dimensions of actor, domain, durability and scope. Its application in workshop or structured settings opens up diverse and non-exclusive discussion on designing interventions to match salient behavioural characteristics. The use of the 4DB framework in the transport domain is demonstrated for travel behaviours of interest to policy-makers using examples of buying plug-in vehicles (PiVs), commuting by bicycle, eco-driving and making business trips by train.     

基于Object ARX的铁路纵断面自动出图系统的研究

对铁路纵断面绘图要素的分类、数据结构的组织、线路里程点的定位,纵断面要素的具体绘制等进行了研究,在AutoCAD图形数据库结构的基础上,以AutoCAD 2002为绘图平台,运用Visual C++编译环境结合objectARX库函数,实现线路纵断面的自动出图,提高绘图速度和绘图精度.     

铁路旅客服务信息处理平台的研究

在铁路现有信息系统的基础上,铁路旅客服务信息处理平台借助铁路现有的数据传输网,实现基于互联网、电话语音,手机短信等多种模式的旅客实时信息服务系统.就系统的总体结构、基本功能、业务流程、实现方式和安全规范等进行研究,对系统的建设实施提出初步设想.     

ARIMA模型在HIS预测中的初步研究

时间序列预测分析在医院信息系统中具有广泛的应用前景,而ARIMA模型是挖掘时间序列模式的一个有效的方法.介绍利用ARIMA模型发现时间序列模式的方法,并应用于医院时序数据预测,为管理层提供决策依据,完善医院信息系统.     

系统最优的动态交通网络流分配模型的研究

智能交通系统是一个复杂的大系统。交通网络配流是智能交通系统的一个关键问题,其中对交通网络配流模型的建立和算法的设计是非常重要的。通过建立系统最优的动态交通网络流分配的最优控制模型,并经过一系列的积分变换转化为一种简单而特殊的非线性规划问题。文中只是局限于对最优控制模型进行化简,目的是为了进一步研究已简化模型的有关性质和算法的设计。     

道路运输车辆达标车型整车主动安全项目测试简析

道路运输车辆达标车型的实施,有效提升了道路运输车辆的安全性能。文章主要从电子稳定性控制系统、车道偏离预警系统、前向碰撞预警系统、自动紧急制动系统四个整车主动安全测试项目对道路运输车辆达标车型相应标准进行介绍,为道路运输车辆达标车型相关从业人员提供了主动安全整车项目试验参考。