Survivability of an ocean patrol vessel – Analysis approach and uncertainty treatment

Military ocean patrol vessels (OPVs) are today an increasingly common type of naval ship. To facilitate the wide range of tasks with small crews, OPVs represent several ship design compromises between, for example, survivability, redundancy and technical endurance, and some of these compromises are new to military ships.The aim of this study is to examine how the design risk control-options in relation to survivability, redundancy and technical endurance can be linked to the operational risk in a patrol and surveillance scenario. The ship operation for a generic OPV, including the actions of the threat, is modelled with a Bayesian network describing the scenario and the dependency among different influences.The scenario is described with expert data collected from subject matter experts. The approach includes an analysis of uncertainty using Monte Carlo analysis and numerical derivative analysis.The results show that it is possible to link the performance of specific ship design features to the operational risk. Being able to propagate the epistemic uncertainties through the model is important to understand how the uncertainty in the input affects the output and the output uncertainty for the studied case is small relative to the input uncertainty. The study shows that linking different ship design features for aspects such as survivability, redundancy and technical endurance to the operational risk gives important information for the ship design decision-making process.     

Global Fish Trade,Prices, and Food Security in an African Coral Reef Fishery

This study evaluated the potential impact of global fish trade on local food prices by analyzing a 16-year locally collected time series of disaggregated coral reef fish products and prices that differed in their market chain linkages—ranging from local to international markets. We were primarily interested in evaluating how local and global markets interacted with the local prices of beef, fish, and maize. There was no cointegration between the prices of exported octopus and that of maize and beef over this study period. Further, the three types of fish and associated markets responded in different ways to various price changes. For internationally traded octopus, we found a positive association between price and catch rates but no evidence that the global trade in octopus markets created local inflation, particularly the prices of the fish eaten by the poor. In general, there was no evidence for price transmission from export to nonexport fish products even though fishers appeared to focus on octopus when prices were high. Consequently, fishers' behaviors and trade policies that promote adjusting fishing effort to internationally traded fish did not appear to promote poverty or food insecurity in this fishery.     

海洋工程基础打桩船的技术现状与发展动态

从海洋工程基础打桩工艺、打桩船类型和关键技术等方面着手,阐述了打桩船的技术现状及发展趋势.研究发现,随着向海经济日趋繁荣,为满足超大桩径、桩深、集桩/补桩等打桩作业的需求,稳定性高、定位精度高以及环境友好型的超大专用打桩船将得到快速发展.     

The trophic role of the tunicate Salpa thompsoni in the Antarctic marine ecosystem

During a repeat grid survey and drogue study carried out in austral summer 1994/95, the abundance and feeding activity of salps were estimated in the Lazarev Sea region from net tows and in situ measurements of gut fluorescence. Throughout the survey area, Salpa thompsoni accounted for >95% of the total salp stock while Ihlea racovitzai was consistently represented in very low abundances. Maximum densities of S. thompsoni, with ≈4000 ind. 1000 m⁻³, were recorded in the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ) in December when chlorophyll-a concentrations were well below 1 mg m⁻³. A dramatic decrease in salp stock was observed at the beginning of January, when S. thompsoni virtually disappeared from the most productive area of the MIZ where chlorophyll-a concentrations had by then reached bloom levels of 1.5–3 mg (Chl-a) m⁻³. In situ grazing measurements showed that throughout the cruise S. thompsoni exhibited the highest ingestion rates per individual of any of the most abundant components of the grazing pelagic community, with maxima of ≈160 μg (pigm) ind. ⁻¹ d⁻¹. These feeding rates are 3 to 5 times higher than those previously obtained using in vitro incubations. The total daily consumption of the population of S. thompsoni varied from 0.3 to 108% of daily primary production. We suggest that competitive removal of food by S. thompsoni, rather than direct predation, is responsible for the low krill abundances generally associated with salp swarms.     

Life cycle strategies of epipelagic copepods in the Southern Ocean

Twelve epipelagic copepod species were reviewed to compare their adaptations to the short primary production season and low temperatures which characterise the Southern Ocean. The species show a spectrum of adaptations, but three broad life cycle strategies were defined: (1) herbivorous in summer, a short reproductive period and winter diapause at depth (Calanoides acutus and possibly Ctenocalanus citer); (2) predominantly omnivorous/detritivorous diet, an extended period of feeding, growth and reproduction and less reliance on diapause at depth (Metridia gerlachei, Calanus propinquus, Calanus simillimus, Oithona similis, Microcalanus pygmaeus, and possibly Oncaea curvata and Oithona frigida); (3) overwintering and feeding within sea ice as early nauplii or copepodids (Stephos longipes and Paralabidocera antarctica). The large species Rhincalanus gigas appears to be intermediate between strategies (1) and (2). Contrasting species from groups (1) and (2), namely C. acutus and O. similis, were selected for more detailed comparison. For C. acutus, maximum (probably food saturated) feeding and egg production rates are well below equivalent values for Calanus spp. at lower latitudes. Likewise, summer growth and moulting rates are slower, and the growth season of this herbivore is only 2–4 months. Therefore, both the low summer temperatures and short primary production season seem to dictate a long (1 year) life cycle for C. acutus. A collation of data on O. similis revealed that its abundance increases about tenfold from the Antarctic shelf northwards to the Polar Frontal Zone, where abundances are similar to those in temperate and tropical shelf seas. In contrast to C. acutus, O. similis appears to remain in the epipelagic and reproduce there year-round, although the food sources which sustain this are still uncertain.     

CO2 ocean sequestration by moving ships

Ocean sequestration of the CO₂ captured from fossil-fuel burning is a possible option to mitigate the increase in CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere. It can isolate huge amounts of CO₂ from the atmosphere for a long time at relatively low cost, if it is acceptable from the viewpoint of the environmental impact on the ocean. The concept of CO₂ dispersion in the ocean depths by ships is a promising method for efficient dilution. That is, liquefied CO₂ is delivered to the site and injected into the ocean at depths of 1000–2500 m with a suspended pipe towed by a slowly moving ship. In addition to the horizontal movement of the release point, the vertical journey of CO₂ droplets until they disappear by dissolution is effective for the dilution of CO₂ in seawater. In this paper, the possibility of the generation of relatively large-sized droplets from a moving nozzle is investigated experimentally. In addition, the terminal velocity of CO₂ droplets in deep-sea circumstances is measured in a large high-pressure tank to investigate the influence of the hydrate film formed on the surface of the droplet. Finally, it is shown by simulation that an initial dilution ratio of one to some ten thousandths is possible on a realistic engineering scale in the moving ship type of CO₂ ocean sequestration. Received: August 7, 2001 / Accepted: September 13, 2001     

Circulation features in the Japan/East Sea related to statistically obtained wind patterns in the warm season

A response of the circulation in the Japan/East Sea (JES) to different kinds of wind forcing is studied, with the emphasis on the warm season, using a primitive equation oceanic model. Wind forcing is based on typical patterns obtained from complex empirical orthogonal functions of 1°-gridded NCEP/NCAR 6 h winds for 1998–2005. These patterns are distinguished by a prevailing wind direction. Northwestern wind and strong cyclonic (C) curl prevail in winter, while a variety of patterns occur in the warm season, differing in the wind direction and curl. Three model runs are performed to examine the circulation in response to a prevailing C wind stress curl or an alternating C and anticyclonic (AC) curl or a strong C curl in the warm season. The simulated features are consistent with the observational evidence, in particular with thermal fronts and frequent eddy locations derived from multi-year infrared satellite imagery. The simulated C circulation intensifies and the subarctic region extends southward with the strengthening of a summer C wind stress curl over the JES. Variability of Subarctic Front (SF) in the western JES (between 130°E and 133°E) is strongly affected by summer wind stress curl. Forcing by an AC curl tends to shift SF northward, while SF shifts to the south under the forcing by a C curl, reaching the southern Ulleung Basin in the case of the strong C curl. In the northwestern JES (off Peter the Great Bay, Russia, and North Korea), the SF northwestern branch (NWSF) is simulated. It is a known feature in autumn and early winter and can also occur in the warm season. The simulation results suggest an AC wind stress curl as the forcing of the formation of the NWSF in the warm season. The Siberia Seamount and sharply bending coastline near Peter the Great Bay facilitate partial separation of the Primorye (Liman) Current from the coast. The wind stress curl can be an additional forcing of the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC) branching off the Korea Strait to the East Korea Warm Current (EKWC) and the offshore branch (OB). In the warm season, the simulated TWC bifurcation occurs farther north, the EKWC is strong, and the OB is weak under the forcing of the AC wind stress curl. The EKWC is weak and the OB is strong under the forcing of the strong C wind stress curl.     

美国海军海洋环境信息应用系统综述

就海上作战战法而言，掌握海洋环境参数及其变化与掌握敌情态势同等重要，海洋环境要素是在作战准备和临战对抗行动中取得主动权所不可或缺的条件。因此，使各级海上指战员了解并利用环境因素以取得军事优势，是现代高技术条件下作战的一个主要方面。美国海军非常重视环境信息技术，从环境信息数据库系统、决策综合信息支持系统及信息获取、提供、处理到水面水下不同应用特色等方面介绍了几个成熟的系统，希望为我国海军的信息化技术发展提供参考。     

作业成本法在远洋集装箱运输企业的应用探讨

论文根据作业成本法的特点,对其在远洋集装箱运输企业应用的适用性作出探讨,并列出了远洋集装箱运输企业作业成本的计算过程。     

Multivariate assimilation in MERCATOR project: New statistical parameters from forecast error estimation

The new operational prototype of Mercator (french Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment contribution) is composed of a North Atlantic primitive equation ocean model OPA (Ocean Parallel Algorithm between 20°S and 70°N, [Madec, G., P. Delecluse, M. Imbard and C. Lévy (1998). OPA8.1 ocean general circulation model reference manuel. Notes du pôle de modélisation IPSL. n°11: 91p]) and of a multivariate and multidata assimilation scheme [De Mey, P. and M. Benkiran (2002). “A multivariate reduced-order optimal interpolation method and its application in Mediterranean basin-scale circulation.” Ocean Forecasting : Conceptual basis and application, Pinardi, N., Springer Verlag.] This system has already given some significant improvements from previous Mercator configurations (M. Benkiran, personal communication). However some biases on ocean state still remain in the tropics where the reduced-order optimal interpolation scheme is suspected to be ill-parameted in the model forecast error. Indeed the guess error covariance matrix is decomposed into an error variance value and a spatio-temporal correlation function which are assumed to have some “good” properties (spatial homogeneity of the correlation function, constant ratio between signal and error variance). This study shows how we can use ensemble methods to validate these assumptions. We can see that the correlation function can reach negative values locally, mostly in regions of high variability contradictory with the homogeneous hypothesis. The reduced space used in the operational configuration is based on the signal seasonal Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). An empirical relationship between signal and error variance has been set and the correlation function is the same on every dimension of the reduced space. By projection of the estimated guess error variance onto the reduced space, we find a repartition of this quantity quite different to what was set in the system. The error statistics is found to be inhomogeneous compared to hypothesis made in the assimilation scheme. These two new parameters tested separately in the assimilation scheme gives significant improvements of the forecast and analysis results. This is particularly obvious in the tropics. But relationship between signal and error statistics (as assumed in the optimal interpolation) is found to be complex.