基于风险网络的轨道交通车辆风险评价

针对轨道交通车辆系统的风险网络和关键部件风险评价开展研究,以系统部件和部件连接关系作为节点和边,建立了风险网络模型,分析了节点固有风险的影响因素和计算方法.根据节点之间故障传播概率得到边的作用强度和路径风险.对节点固有风险和路径风险进行分析,得到节点综合风险,并通过幂法对节点综合风险进行求解,从而识别部件对系统的影响程度.以转向架系统为例进行综合风险计算,结果表明：部件固有风险大小不能完全决定综合风险大小,还与部件连接关系和作用强度相关;与实际经验得出的关键部件综合风险排序对比,利用本文方法得到的关键部件排序一致性与其他方法相比有明显提升.     

Modeling user adoption of advanced traveler information systems: dynamic evolution and stationary equilibrium

This paper models the growth rate and the saturation market penetration level for advanced traveler information system (ATIS) products/services with heterogeneous drivers. The price of using and the benefit gained from ATIS services are considered two key factors in explaining the growth of adoption of ATIS products. The information benefit is measured as the travel time saving between equipped and unequipped drivers and evaluated by a mixed stochastic and deterministic network equilibrium model. A modified logistic type growth model is adopted to describe the cumulative adoption of ATIS products over years. The final stationary equilibrium level of ATIS market penetration is so determined that the value of the information provided will decline to the point at which no new users will find it advantageous to purchase that service. The endogenous growth and stationary equilibrium model of market penetration of ATIS services is useful for forecasting the growth process and the impacts on the system performance of ATIS.     

Are railways really that bad? An evaluation of rail systems performance in Europe with a focus on passenger rail

With a large number of railway development projects in Europe and worldwide, which once completed will be serving rail passengers of the future, this paper aims to take a step back and evaluate current railway systems performance. The objectives are to compare statistical data on various passenger-related parameters of the railway system in a number of selected European countries and draw conclusions on the level of their performance when compared to the European average.Analyses of publically available statistical data, extracted from the Eurostat service at a European level will allow for a comparison of various indicators which influence the performance of the railway systems from an infrastructure and operational perspectives. The analyses will also allow identifying key performance indicators for the accurate assessment of the rail systems.The paper will highlight case studies for various parameters which are important to stakeholders of the railways, including infrastructure managers, rail operators, policy makers and the end users. This knowledge will be to the benefit of today’s railway industry as well as the rail systems of the future, as it will show trends drew upon existing data which might continue in the future.     

Proposed collision warning system for right-turning vehicles at two-way stop-controlled rural intersections

At two-way stop-controlled (TWSC) rural intersections, a right-turning driver who is departing the minor road may select an improper gap and subsequently may be involved in a rear-end collision with another vehicle approaching on the rightmost lane on the major road. This paper provides perceptual framework and algorithm design of a proposed infrastructure-based collision warning system that has the potential to aid unprotected right-turning drivers at TWSC rural intersections. The proposed system utilizes a radar sensor that measures the location, speed, and acceleration of the approaching vehicle on the major road. Based on these measurements, the system’s algorithm determines if there will be any potential conflict between the approaching and the turning vehicles and warns the driver of the latter vehicle if such a conflict is found. The algorithm is based on realistic acceleration profile of the turning vehicle to estimate its acceleration rates at different times so that the system can accurately estimate the time and distance needed for the departing vehicle to accelerate to the same speed as for the approaching vehicle. That realistic acceleration profile is established using actual experimental data collected by a Global Positioning System (GPS) data logger device that was used to record the positions and instantaneous speeds of different right-turning vehicles at 1-s intervals. The algorithm also gives consideration to the time needed by the driver of the departing vehicle to perceive the message displayed by the system and react to it (to start departure) where it was found that 95% of drivers have a perception–reaction time of 1.89 s or less. A methodology is also illustrated to select the maximum measurement errors suggested for the detectors in measuring the locations of the approaching vehicle on the major road where it was found that the accuracy of the system significantly deteriorates if the errors in measuring the distance and the azimuth angle exceed 0.1 m and 0.2°, respectively. An application example is provided to illustrate the algorithm used by the proposed system.     

A simultaneous route-level transit patronage model: demand,supply, and inter-route relationship

In this paper we present a route-level patronage model that incorporates transit demand, supply and inter-route effects in a simultaneous system. The model is estimated at the route-segment level by time of day and direction. The results show strong simultaneity among transit demand, supply and competing routes. Transit ridership is affected by the level of service, which in turn is determined by current demand and ridership in the previous year. The model demonstrates that a service improvement has a twofold impact on ridership; it increases ridership on the route with service changes, but it also reduces the ridership on competing routes so that the net ridership change is small. The model is thus useful for both system-level analysis and route-level service planning.     

The acquisition of pre-trip information: A stated preference approach

This paper describes a study into the effects of pre-trip information on travel behaviour, carried out as part of the DRIVE project EURONETT. The aim of the study was to investigate travellers' requirements for different types of travel information and methods of enquiry and to relate the process of information acquisition to changes in travel behaviour. The study was carried out using a stated preference approach, built on the use of a microcomputer based simulation of an in-home pre-trip information system offering information on travel times from home to City Centre, by bus and car, at different times of the day. A novel feature of the stated preference exercise was that respondents effectively generated their own choice set of alternatives through the process of information acquisition. Surveys were undertaken in parallel in Birmingham and Athens, thus allowing a comparison to be made between behaviour in typical Southern and Northern European settings.The first part of the paper discusses some of the fundamental behavioural and modelling issues raised by the introduction of advanced traveller information systems. It then describes the study methodology and the stated preference experiment. Results are presented from an analysis of the information acquisition process itself and from choice models relating the acquired information to effects on different dimensions of travel behaviour.     

飞轮储能系统建模与仿真研究

为研究独立电力系统采用飞轮储能系统对大功率脉冲负载的供电性能,本文在分析了飞轮储能系统工作原理基础上,对飞轮储能系统建模与仿真开展了研究。采用了PSCAD/EMTDC软件搭建按照其实际组成搭建了SPWM控制的变流器及触发控制信号仿真模型,利用具有大转动惯量、小摩擦系数和小阻力转矩的负载模拟飞轮转子,建立了飞轮储能系统的全系统模型。通过对建立的模型进行仿真,给出了飞轮储能系统在储能状态、放能状态及两者之间的转换过渡时刻的转速、转矩、电流及母线直流电压响应曲线,深入分析表明,该仿真结果与理论完全一致,证明了飞轮储能负载的仿真模型是正确有效的。研究的相关结论可用于相关电力系统供电稳定性的仿真设计。     

舰艇作战系统信息模型研究

系统安全机制是舰艇作战系统的重要组成部分,建立舰艇作战系统信息模型是构建舰艇作战系统安全机制的基础。在分析舰艇作战系统体系结构的基础上,对系统的功能组成进行研究,利用UML建模工具,从数据模型和动态模型2个方面完成系统信息模型的描述。舰艇作战系统信息模型的建立,为实现系统安全机制的构建提供了坚实的基础。     

客运专线铁路信号系统调试

介绍客运专线铁路信号系统调试的目的、调试程序和调试内容,简要介绍设备单项静态调试、子系统静态调试、信号地面系统联合调试及车地联调联试等方面的调试内容。     

地铁车辆段检修库移动式架车机的工艺分析

地铁车辆段检修库中移动式架车机是车体与转向架分解组装以及车底电器、制动等模块拆装的必备设备,移动式架车机以其适用车型广、组合灵活、成本低的特点,得到广泛应用,而移动式架车机要想实现上述功能,需要分析研究与之配套设施的工艺特点。提出移动式架车机在检修库中采用有检查坑和无检查坑的布置方案,通过分析总结后,认为临修库中设置移动式架车机时,采用无检查沟的形式,在架修库设置移动式架车机时,采用有检查坑的形式。