Short/medium-term prediction for the aviation emissions in the en route airspace considering the fluctuation in air traffic demand

This paper proposes a novel short/medium-term prediction method for aviation emissions distribution in en route airspace. An en route traffic demand model characterizing both the dynamics and the fluctuation of the actual traffic demand is developed, based on which the variation and the uncertainty of the short/medium-term traffic growth are predicted. Building on the demand forecast the Boeing Fuel Flow Method 2 is applied to estimate the fuel consumption and the resulting aviation emissions in the en route airspace. Based on the traffic demand prediction and the en route emissions estimation, an aviation emissions prediction model is built, which can be used to forecast the generation of en route emissions with uncertainty limits. The developed method is applied to a real data set from Hefei Area Control Center for the en route emission prediction in the next 5 years, with time granularities of both months and years. To validate the uncertainty limits associated with the emission prediction, this paper also presents the prediction results based on future traffic demand derived from the regression model widely adopted by FAA and Eurocontrol. The analysis of the case study shows that the proposed method can characterize well the dynamics and the fluctuation of the en route emissions, thereby providing satisfactory prediction results with appropriate uncertainty limits. The prediction results show a gradual growth at an average annual rate of 7.74%, and the monthly prediction results reveal distinct fluctuation patterns in the growth.     

A Comparative Study of Three Multivariate Short-Term Freeway Traffic Flow Forecasting Methods With Missing Data

Short-term traffic flow forecasting is a critical function in advanced traffic management systems (ATMS) and advanced traveler information systems (ATIS). Accurate forecasting results are useful to indicate future traffic conditions and assist traffic managers in seeking solutions to congestion problems on urban freeways and surface streets. There is new research interest in short-term traffic flow forecasting due to recent developments in intelligent transportation systems (ITS) technologies. Previous research involves technologies in multiple areas, and a significant number of forecasting methods exist in the literature. However, most studies used univariate forecasting methods, and they have limited forecasting abilities when part of the data is missing or erroneous. While the historical average (HA) method is often applied to deal with this issue, the forecasting accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This article makes use of the spatial relationship of traffic flow at nearby locations and builds up two multivariate forecasting approaches: the vector autoregression (VAR) and the general regression neural network (GRNN) based forecasting models. Traffic data collected from U.S. Highway 290 in Houston, TX, were used to test the model performance. Comparison of performances of the three models (HA, VAR, and GRNN) in different missing ratios and forecasting time intervals indicates that the accuracy of the VAR model is more sensitive to the missing ratio, while on average the GRNN model gives more robust and accurate forecasting with missing data, particularly when the missing data ratio is high.     

试述邓小平理论中关于行政体制改革思想

本文通过对邓小平行政体制改革思想的论述 ,阐明了只有运用科学思维 ,才能使理论走向科学的现代化 ,唯现代化理念才可实践出现代化成果。这正是邓小平理论立于 2 1世纪中国社会主义现代化建设重大意义之所在。     

关角隧道进口段浅埋砂层隧道稳定性特征研究

文章运用突变理论,对关角隧道进口段浅埋砂层隧道的稳定性进行研究,揭示不同的应力释放率下围岩的变形规律,并在此基础上确定隧道变形的极限位移,用以指导设计和施工。     

推移质间相互作用力研究

沉降性浆体中固体颗粒处于滑跳移运动状态时,固体颗粒将受到摩擦力的影响。推移质的整体摩擦力等于推移质间剪切力和推移质与管壁间摩擦力的和。任意推移质的剪切力与固体颗粒的体积分数成比例,由力的平衡方程可以推导出其比例系数。     

船舶前置导管流态的数值计算与分析

利用Fluent 6.0软件计算和分析了船舶螺旋桨前置导管的平面流流态.比较了安装前置导管前后船体艉部流态,发现安装后流态发生了改变,旋涡大幅减少,流速显著增加,伴流不均匀性减小.用数值方法再显了现有模型试验分析的结果.     

计算流体动力学在轨道交通环控系统分析中的应用

介绍了近年来发展较快的一种计算机辅助设计技术——计算流体动力学(CFD),并将其与世界上第一个地铁环控计算机模拟软件SES进行比较,对CFD在城市轨道交通环控系统中的应用进行了分析和探讨。     

高速公路入口匝道连接处车辆等待延误研究

高速公路入口匝道延误由车辆等待延误与车辆加减速延误组成,等待延误占据总延误的80％左右,而对于车辆的等待延误研究较少。文中以排队论和可接受间隙理论等为基础,讨论了高速公路入口匝道连接处的等待延误。在入口匝道和高速公路主线不同车辆到达流量的情况下,分别进行了研究,建立起了相应的模型,获得了匝道车辆的等待延误。等待延误的研究,对于评价入口匝道的通行状况,和作为一项改进入口匝道设计的依据,以及对交通管理和控制策略的评价完善是十分有益的。最后,通过选取模型中的参数数据,用matlab编程描述了匝道车辆等待延误与临界间隙及匝道车辆平均到达率等参数的关系,表明模型较符合实际运行状况,具有一定的适用性。     

基于混沌理论的短时交通流量预测

随着智能交通的发展,实时动态交通分配成为当前研究热门问题。短时交通流预测是实时动态交通分配的关键技术之一,在当今交通控制以及车辆导航中具有不可替代的地位。通过对交通流数据进行分析,得出交通系统具有耗散系统特性,并且存在混沌。在此基础上,运用混沌理论对交通流数据进行相空间重构,并用多元局域预测法对时间序列进行预测。通过分析预测数据,得出基于混沌理论的短时交通流量预测在2～5 min内具有较高的预测精度。     

陶行知教育理论在学生管理工作中的应用

文章运用陶行知教育理论,从教育动机、教育重点、教育方法等多个维度对学生管理工作进行了探讨,旨在寻求新时期学生管理工作的新模式。