Cash flow sensitivities during normal and crisis times: Evidence from shipping

Using a system of equations model, we analyze how cash flow shocks influence the investment and financing decisions of shipping firms in different economic environments. Even financially healthy shipping firms felt strong negative effects on their financing activities during the recent crisis. These firms were nevertheless able to increase long-term debt. Banks internalized the impact of foreclosure decisions on vessel prices and avoided an industry-wide collateral channel effect. Even during benign economic conditions, financially weak shipping firms underinvest because of their inability to raise sufficient external capital. The substitution between long- and short-term debt during the pre-2008 crisis periods shows that the composition of financing sources is more indicative of whether firms face financial constraints than the pure size of the financing-cash flow sensitivities. An analysis of firms’ excess cash holdings confirms the importance of financial flexibility.     

The impact of outcome framing and psychological distance of air pollution consequences on transportation mode choice

Recent years, air pollution phenomenon has become one of the crucial problems of Tehran, Iran. Due to main political and economic role of Tehran, population of this metropolis is high and increasing. Urban transportation of this highly populated city contributes more than 70% of air pollution problem in this city. Although a number of urban transport developments, policy measures and regulations have been employed, Tehran’s air pollution has remained crucial thus far. Finding ways to encourage individuals to behave more sustainable can be considered as a substantial approach of tackling environmental problems such as air pollution, since it can be highly cost-effective and fast. This research attempt to evaluate the impacts of two factors of outcome framing and psychological distance of air pollution on citizen’s willingness to behave environmental friendly, particularly to change the travel mode choice. Results illustrate that communicating the consequences of air pollution can provoke individuals’ to act more environment friendly or in particular to change their intention for using more sustainable mode of transportation. Framing the positive consequences of mitigating air pollution take precedence over framing the negative consequences. Moreover the gains of mitigating air pollution have an impact on the willingness to use of bicycle and bus. Results also show that decreasing the psychological distance of air pollution in order to make manipulated frame more personally relevant has no significant impact on respondents.     

How much disruption to activities could fuel shortages cause? – The British fuel crisis of September 2000

In September of 2000 the UK experienced a blockade of oil refineries in response to rising fuel prices. These protests resulted in severe fuel supply disruptions that intensified over the course of about one week. During the peak of the crisis, travel activity by car was curtailed. This paper analyzes survey data collected about two months after the crisis utilizing the recent memory of respondents as to how they would expect this sort of disruption to affect their participation in daily activities. Specifically, we focused on a variety of non-discretionary and discretionary activities and examined what factors are associated with respondents expecting disruption to those activities. Statistical models were developed to analyze how demographic factors, commute mode selection, vehicle characteristics, and various other factors can explain how individuals expect disruption to their activities. Results suggest that the majority of individuals do not expect major disruptions, although for more car-dependent individuals, disruption was expected to be substantial, especially for work-related trips. These results have implications for the potential success and benefits of an integrated transport policy.     

2003年SARS对我国铁路客运量的后影响评价

2003年SARS是高传染性的公众健康危机,我国铁路旅客运输出现严重“滑坡”并蒙受巨大损失。本文依据本底趋势线理论,对此次危机造成铁路客运量损失、危机生命周期及全国28个省市区差异进行了定量分析与估算。结果显示:①2003年SARS共造成铁路客运量损失1.043亿人,占全国客运量总损失的10.22%,相对损失率为9.69%;②2003年3~4月危机开始生成显现,5~6月全面爆发并达到鼎盛,7~10月为衰减恢复期,SARS危机对铁路客运的影响持续8个月;③SARS危机对全国各省份铁路客运量所造成的损失差异较大,其中,北京、辽宁、广东、四川、黑龙江、河北的客运量损失在686万~867万人,江苏、河南、浙江、陕西、吉林、上海、山西的客运量损失在417万~607万人;④剔除青海和广东两省,26个省份铁路客运量损失与客运量基数、SARS确诊人数具有显著的相关性,其中,SARS确诊人数的边际系数为11.4%。     

高校校园危机事件中的心理干预模式研究——以一名精神分裂大学生引发的校园危机事件为例

精神分裂症作为一种重度精神疾病，最近几年逐渐成为高校校园危机事件的重要因素之一。文章通过对一名患有精神分裂症学生的个案研究，讨论了校园危机事件的处理策略，以及如何对受到影响的同学进行及时有效的心理干预，从而为校园危机事件的处理和校园危机管理机制的建立提供参考。     

Post-disaster debris reverse logistics management under psychological cost minimization

This work presents a novel reverse logistics system for post-disaster debris. Effectiveness of the proposed system is demonstrated by applying it to a case study in Wenchuan County of China. The county was the epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008. A multi-objective linear programming model is also formulated capable of systematically minimizing total reverse logistical costs, corresponding environmental and operational risks, and psychological trauma experienced by local residents why they waited for medical treatment and removal of debris. The psychological stress induced during the debris reverse logistic process is the integral of an increasing marginal function of the waiting time for medical treatment and debris removal. Numerical results indicate that when considering risk-induced and psychological costs, the proposed model can reduce such costs associated with post-disaster debris reverse logistics by 22.62% and 54.93%, respectively, from their values when only the logistical costs are minimized. Although reducing the psychological cost of disaster victims, the temporary storage of disaster-hit sites increases the psychological costs of individuals who are processing the debris. We recommend increasing on-site storage and treatment capacities to reduce risk-induced and psychological costs with a lower increase in logistical costs. When the risk tolerance ranges from its minimum value to +25%, the Pareto fronts are closer than those of the risk tolerance increase by more than +25%. Efforts are underway to design a tool based on the Pareto analysis method for future decision making.     

大学生心理危机引发的思考

做好大学生心理危机的干预工作,是高校辅导员的一项重要任务。本文介绍了心理危机的表现形式、产生的原因以及辅导员在心理危机干预中的角色认知,为我院进行学生心理危机干预提出了一些建议。     

金融危机背景下的返乡农民工情况调查与分析——以南通市为例

文章对南通市的如皋县、海安县的89住返乡农民工进行了走访调查，系统地分析了返乡农民工返乡的理性因素、现实因素及自身因素等方面的原因。针对返乡农民工面临的土地流转、新生代农民工不适应农村生活、再就业和创业难度较大等方面的问题，提出了几点建议。     

发展船舶融资租赁 引领航运事业振兴

文中对船舶融资租赁进行了概述,分析了我国船舶融资租赁业发展中存在的问题,探讨了金融危机下发展船舶融资租赁的必要性,并据此提出了对策和建议。     

关于中小企业金融危机中突“危”问题的思考

受金融危机冲击,至2008年6月底,我国规模以上的中小工业企业停产、半停产6．7万家,下岗工人约2000万人。到了下半年,情况趋于严重。就金融危机对中小企业的冲击、契机及如何突“危”问题进行了一些思考,期望从中为深受冲击的部份中小企业带来一点启示。