失效件数很少的可靠性试验数据处理方法研究

可靠性试验的数据是产品设计与改进的重要依据，本针对现有的数据处理方法不能满足失效件数很少时对试验数据的处理这一情况，提出了一种有条件的数据处理方法并举例予以说明，在此基础上开发出了包括这种处理方法模块的分析软件。     

CA498柴油发动机曲轴可靠性的研究

研究了ＣＡ４９８柴油发动机曲轴的可靠性与曲轴的结构参数、强化工艺之间的关系，对比研究了锻钢曲轴和铸铁曲轴两种不同成本的曲轴，为开发经济型、增压型的曲轴提供了一定的依据；并阐述了有限元分析在研究曲轴可靠性方面的应用。     

汽车半轴凸缘的可靠性设计

在基本随机变量的概率特性已知的情况下，采用摄动法对汽车半轴凸缘进行可靠性设计，并编制了实用的计算程序，可以方便准确地得到汽车半轴凸缘的可靠的可靠性设计参数，此方法对机械零部件的可靠性设计具有通用性。     

汽车制动功能失常故障树仿真建模与分析

本文采用Ｍｏｎｔｅ－Ｃａｒｌｏ随机抽样方法，建立汽车制动功能失常故障树仿真模型，编制出故障桎仿真程序ＳＦＴＡ，求出该系统的平均无故障工作时间、累积换效及各底事件重要度。同时借助于故障树仿真程序对系统进行可靠性分析，不仅能解决故障树分析中部件为非指数分布所遇到的困难，而且能够从仿真的运行过程中，观察到系统内部部各部分对整个系统可靠性所产生的作用，对于整体提高汽车制动系统的可靠性提供了有益的参考依据。     

船舶驾驶员危险预测能力在人因可靠性评估中应用的设想

通过对复杂水域系统海事事故的特点及不同经验船舶驾驶员操船特点进行分析,结合熟练操作技能的特征,提出可采用船舶驾驶员的危险预测能力对船舶驾驶员的人因可靠性进行评价.     

准点可靠公交系统建设策略探讨

大多数城市中,公交车普遍存在可靠性不高的现象,提出可靠的公交这一理念,分析公交运行可靠性的影响因素,给出改进措施,保证公交在线路运行上的优先性,达到准点可靠,提高公交效率的目的。     

Location planning for transit-based evacuation under the risk of service disruptions

The effectiveness of transit-based emergency evacuation highly depends on the location of pick-up facilities, resource allocation, and management. These facilities themselves are often subject to service disruptions during or after the emergency. This paper proposes a reliable emergency facility location model that determines both pre-emergency facility location planning and the evacuation operations afterwards, while facilities are subject to the risk of disruptions. We analyze how evacuation resource availability leverages individual evacuees’ response to service disruptions, and show how equilibrium of the evacuee arrival process could be reached at a functioning pick-up facility. Based on this equilibrium, an optimal resource allocation strategy is found to balance the tradeoff between the evacuees’ risks and the evacuation agency’s operation costs. This leads to the development of a compact polynomial-size linear integer programming formulation that minimizes the total expected system cost from both pre-emergency planning (e.g., facility set-up) and the evacuation operations (e.g., fleet management, transportation, and exposure to hazardous surroundings) across an exponential number of possible disruption scenarios. We also show how the model can be flexibly used to plan not only pre-disaster evacuation but also post-disaster rescue actions. Numerical experiments and an empirical case study for three coastal cities in the State of Mississippi (Biloxi, Gulfport, and D’lberville) are conducted to study the performance of the proposed models and to draw managerial insights.     

The effect of slow zones on ridership: An analysis of the Chicago Transit Authority “El” Blue Line

Transit agencies frequently upgrade rail tracks to bring the system to a state of good repair (SGR) and to improve the speed and reliability of urban rail transit service. For safety during construction, agencies establish slow zones in which trains must reduce speed. Slow zones create delays and schedule disruptions that result in customer dissatisfaction and discontinued use of transit, either temporarily or permanently. While transit agencies are understandably concerned about the possible negative effects of slow zones, empirical research has not specifically examined the relationship between slow zones and ridership. This paper partially fills that gap. Using data collected from the Chicago Transit Authority (CTA) Customer Experience Survey, CTA Slow Zone Maps, and, the Automatic Fare Collection System (AFC), it examines whether recurring service delays due to slow zones affect transit rider behavior and if the transit loyalty programs, such as smart card systems, increase or decrease rider defections. Findings suggest that slow zones increase headway deviation which reduces ridership. Smart card customers are more sensitive to slow zones as they are more likely to stop using transit as a result of delay. The findings of this paper have two major policy implications for transit agencies: (1) loyalty card users, often the most reliable source of revenue, are most at risk for defection during construction and (2) it is critical to minimize construction disruptions and delays in the long run by maintaining state of good repair. The results of this paper can likely be used as the basis for supporting immediate funding requests to bring the system to an acceptable state of good repair as well as stimulating ideas about funding reform for transit.     

Indicators of reliability and vulnerability: Similarities and differences in ranking links of a complex road system

This article investigates two performance attributes of road networks, reliability and vulnerability, analyzing their similarities as well as the differences that justify distinct definitions, based on consolidation of recent studies. We also discuss the indicators found in the literature for these two performance attributes. Since various authors treat vulnerability as an aspect of reliability instead of a specific attribute, we carried out an application to a complex road network representative of the city of Rio de Janeiro to check the suitability of this approach. The results show that the vulnerability indicators are more strongly affected by the characteristics of alternative routes while the reliability metrics are more sensitive to the congestion level. The conclusion is that reliability and vulnerability should be treated distinctly for evaluating the performance of road network links.     

DMIS系统的可靠性和安全性设计

介绍了DMIS(运输调度指挥管理信息)系统在可靠性和安全性方面的设计与实现。