运输需求预测计算机辅助系统研究

在改进传统四阶段预测方法的基础上,设计预测系统的总体结构和流程,介绍供需平衡调整方法,着重阐述系统在多方式运输网络拓扑结构描述方法、广义费用的构成和路径选择模型的改进3方面的工作,并开发了相应的计算机软件系统。在含拟建京沪客运专线在内的多方式运输网的基础上建立研究案例,采用"有无项目"对比的方法,使用所开发的软件系统分析了对比方案中京沪沿线相关区域运输需求的变化。     

灰色预测CO浓度在舰船火灾探测中的应用

为了有效地探测舰船火灾,根据舰船火灾信号的特点,选取CO浓度作为火灾探测信号的特征,并提出采用灰色系统模型预测CO浓度增大趋势,通过与实际探测值比较得出相应时刻的预测误差,进而判断是否存在火灾威胁的探测方法,同时结合舰船工作环境的特点,设计了三级火灾报警等级。仿真结果证实了该方法的有效性,对现有的火灾探测方法是一种补充。     

货车焊接结构疲劳寿命预测研究

基于国际焊接学会标准和英国标准,结合有限元静强度结果和实测载荷谱,对某出口运煤车车体关键部位典型焊接接头形式进行了疲劳寿命对比分析。结果表明,合理选择焊接接头形式和焊接工艺可以成倍地提高结构的疲劳寿命。     

基于滞回分配的VBR视频流量带宽管理方案

基于VBR视频流量预测提出了一种新的动态带宽分配算法———滞回算法。与Girish提出的门限算法和Youssef提出的基于GOP场景检测的带宽分配方案相比,对缓存尺寸的需求、信元丢失率等性能有明显提高。大量的仿真表明,该算法能够以较低的开销(带宽重分配次数百分比≤2%)同时兼顾了CLR和带宽利用率,而且只有在缓存队长超过迂回门限时才触发带宽重分配过程,有利于在线实现。     

用内阻法预测阀控铅酸蓄电池故障

免维护电池不等于不需要维护。本文介绍了用内阻法测量蓄电池故障的原理及方法,并通过试验得出:根据免维护电池内阻值的变化可预测出机车蓄电池的故障。     

基于船模试验数据库的快速性预报研究

充分利用已发展成熟的计算机技术，依托上海船研所的船模试验数据库，进行基于船模试验数据库的快速性预报研究．并据此开发一套快速、高效、实用的新船快速性预报系统，给传统的母型船预报法注入新的活力。最后，给出算例并对其结果进行分析对比。本系统关键是数据库的准确和丰富，预报的水平则取决于所选的母型船。     

1/32° real-time global ocean prediction and value-added over 1/16° resolution

A 1/32° global ocean nowcast/forecast system has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory at the Stennis Space Center. It started running at the Naval Oceanographic Office in near real-time on 1 Nov. 2003 and has been running daily in real-time since 1 Mar. 2005. It became an operational system on 6 March 2006, replacing the existing 1/16° system which ceased operation on 12 March 2006. Both systems use the NRL Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) with assimilation of sea surface height from satellite altimeters and sea surface temperature from multi-channel satellite infrared radiometers. Real-time and archived results are available online at http://www.ocean.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom. The 1/32° system has improvements over the earlier system that can be grouped into two categories: (1) better resolution and representation of dynamical processes and (2) design modifications. The design modifications are the result of accrued knowledge since the development of the earlier 1/16° system. The improved horizontal resolution of the 1/32° system has significant dynamical benefits which increase the ability of the model to accurately nowcast and skillfully forecast. At the finer resolution, current pathways and their transports become more accurate, the sea surface height (SSH) variability increases and becomes more realistic and even the global ocean circulation experiences some changes (including inter-basin exchange). These improvements make the 1/32° system a better dynamical interpolator of assimilated satellite altimeter track data, using a one-day model forecast as the first guess. The result is quantitatively more accurate nowcasts, as is illustrated by several model-data comparisons. Based on comparisons with ocean color imagery in the northwestern Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, the 1/32° system has even demonstrated the ability to map small eddies, 25–75 km in diameter, with 70% reliability and a median eddy center location error of 22.5 km, a surprising and unanticipated result from assimilation of altimeter track data. For all of the eddies (50% small eddies), the reliability was 80% and the median eddy center location error was 29 km. The 1/32° system also exhibits improved forecast skill in relation to the 1/16° system. This is due to (a) a more accurate initial condition for the forecast and (b) better resolution and representation of critical dynamical processes (such as upper ocean – topographic coupling via mesoscale flow instabilities) which allow the model to more accurately evolve these features in time while running in forecast mode (forecast atmospheric forcing for the first 5 days, then gradually reverting toward climatology for the remainder of the 30-day forecast period). At 1/32° resolution, forecast SSH generally compares better with unassimilated observations and the anomaly correlation of the forecast SSH exceeds that from persistence by a larger amount than found in the 1/16° system.     

组合预测模型在上海内河港口吞吐量预测中的应用

建立时间序列和二元线性回归的组合预测模型,对上海内河港口2010年、2015年和2020年的货物吞吐量水平进行了预测。研究发现,组合预测模型相比单个预测方法具有较高的精度,能够较准确地预测上海内河港口货物吞吐量。     

基于改进BP神经网络的船舶操纵性能预报

以某单桨大型船舶在海上的回转性能为例，探讨了应用改进的BP神经网络（Back-pmpagation Neural Network）建立船舶操纵性预报数学模型的方法，并利用matlab语言对其进行了仿真。研究结果表明，改进的BP算法有更快的收敛速度和更好的计算精度。