Short-term speed predictions exploiting big data on large urban road networks

Big data from floating cars supply a frequent, ubiquitous sampling of traffic conditions on the road network and provide great opportunities for enhanced short-term traffic predictions based on real-time information on the whole network. Two network-based machine learning models, a Bayesian network and a neural network, are formulated with a double star framework that reflects time and space correlation among traffic variables and because of its modular structure is suitable for an automatic implementation on large road networks. Among different mono-dimensional time-series models, a seasonal autoregressive moving average model (SARMA) is selected for comparison. The time-series model is also used in a hybrid modeling framework to provide the Bayesian network with an a priori estimation of the predicted speed, which is then corrected exploiting the information collected on other links. A large floating car data set on a sub-area of the road network of Rome is used for validation. To account for the variable accuracy of the speed estimated from floating car data, a new error indicator is introduced that relates accuracy of prediction to accuracy of measure. Validation results highlighted that the spatial architecture of the Bayesian network is advantageous in standard conditions, where a priori knowledge is more significant, while mono-dimensional time series revealed to be more valuable in the few cases of non-recurrent congestion conditions observed in the data set. The results obtained suggested introducing a supervisor framework that selects the most suitable prediction depending on the detected traffic regimes.     

A Practice-Based Coupling of the Precautionary Principle to the Large Marine Ecosystem Fisheries Management Concept with a Policy Orientation: The Northeast United States Continental Shelf as a Case Example

This article addresses interdisciplinary sustainable aspects of fisheries as part of ocean management. Human-caused impacts and their role as modifiers of living marine resources is discussed. The research note also theorizes about contemporary global change and its prospective biological consequences, especially when coupled with human-induced factors in coastal marine waters. Also addressed is the management and ecological aspects of fish stock populations as part of a large marine ecosystem (LME) in the Northeast United States continental shelf of the Atlantic Ocean with suggestions for an interdisciplinary policy orientation paradigm to foster the sustainability of marine life in the sea.     

浮置板式轨道结构隔振效果仿真研究

建立列车—轨道结构耦合系统有限元模型,将轨道不平顺作为列车—轨道结构耦合系统的激励源,对普通碎石道床轨道结构和浮置板式轨道结构的列车—轨道结构耦合系统动力学性能进行仿真研究,对比分析这2种类型的轨道结构系统振动响应与系统振动传递函数,评价浮置板式轨道结构的隔振效果。分析结果表明,浮置板式轨道结构与普通碎石道床轨道结构相比,振动加速度降低约70%,距线路5 m处大地振动加速度响应峰值降低约62.8%,相应Z振级衰减约10 dB,竖向振动加速度频率范围由0~200 Hz降到0~60 Hz,有效起到了振动隔离效果。     

南京长江第三大桥钢塔工程控制技术

南京长江第三大桥索塔为“人”字形曲线钢塔。通过试验验证钢筋混凝土棒剪力键群传递荷载的传力机理及承载能力,并编制了制造及架设工艺技术标准。钢塔制造采用板单元件、块体、箱体三阶段制作工艺;采用组装胎型和施焊方法,控制曲线钢塔线型;开发集激光跟踪测量、计算机控制及液压技术于一体的精密加工找正技术,进行钢塔端面加工;采用计算机预拼代替多节段实际预拼,开发精度管理系统进行累计精度控制。钢塔架设采用自立式定臂塔机吊装,施工过程中对关键部位布设应变计进行实时监测,严格工序检查和现场检测,3个月完成高232 m、最大重160 t的钢塔吊装;形成并采用TMD、TLD相结合的钢塔吊装被动制振方案。2005年9月交工验收检测:安装端面接触率≥65%,最大偏位≤1/6 000。     

Gas transfer velocities of CO2 and CH4 in a tropical reservoir and its river downstream

We have measured simultaneously the methane (CH₄) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) surface concentrations and water–air fluxes by floating chambers (FC) in the Petit-Saut Reservoir (French Guiana) and its tidal river (Sinnamary River) downstream of the dam, during the two field experiments in wet (May 2003) and dry season (December 2003). The eddy covariance (EC) technique was also used for CO₂ fluxes on the lake. The comparison of fluxes obtained by FC and EC showed little discrepancies mainly due to differences in measurements durations which resulted in different average wind speeds. When comparing the gas transfer velocity (k₆₀₀) for a given wind speed, both methods gave similar results. On the lake and excluding rainy events, we obtained an exponential relationship between k₆₀₀ and U₁₀, with a significant intercept at 1.7 cm h^− 1, probably due to thermal effects. Gas transfer velocity was also positively related to rainfall rates reaching 26.5 cm h⁻¹ for a rainfall rate of 36 mm h^− 1. During a 24-h experiment in dry season, rainfall accounted for as much as 25% of the k₆₀₀. In the river downstream of the dam, k₆₀₀ values were 3 to 4 times higher than on the lake, and followed a linear relationship with U₁₀.     

通过主成分分析研究比较港口物流发展趋势——以广州港为例

通过主成分分析法可以评价一个港口的综合物流发展水平和潜力。以广州港为例,建立了展示其综合发展的数学模型,同时选择邻近的深圳港进行对比分析。结果表明广州港的货物吞吐量短期内难以与深圳港匹敌,但其广阔的腹地物流支持和经济发展潜力使其整体竞争力快速上升。对广州港集装箱以及运输系统的直接货源腹地--珠江三角洲地区也作了详细分析,并且用最新的竞争情报分析阐述了其在发展过程中所遇到的问题和挑战。最后探讨了通过加强广州港集装箱运输系统的建设,配合公路、铁路以及内陆水系的配套设施以发展整体的第3方港口物流,从港口物流规划的高度综合展望了广州港未来的发展策略。     

红水河坝淘滩航道整治

分析红水河坝淘滩滩险特性、碍航原因,并根据实测资料分析整治工程方案及整治工程效果。     

重庆至上海洋山集装箱运输方式研究

通过对长江干线集装箱运输市场、航线、货源、通航条件的调研及分析,对重庆港至上海国际航运中心大、小洋山港集装箱运输的中转、江海直达方式进行论证,认为在现阶段宜采用中转运输组织方式,而直达运输方式经济性相对较差。     

珠江水系内河航运现状及船型标准化调研报告

本文是推进珠江水系内河船型标准化工作调研报告的部分内容。报告分析了珠江水系推进船型标准化存在的问题,通过征求有关部门和地方航运业者意见,提出了珠江水系推进船型标准化的建议。     

海河护岸挡水墙裂缝产生原因及修补措施探讨

本文介绍了海河护岸工程中挡水墙裂缝产生的机理 ,并提出了修补措施 ,对今后海河护岸工程的设计具有指导意义