Embedding risk attitude and decision weights in non-linear logit to accommodate time variability in the value of expected travel time savings

In recent years we have seen important extensions of logit models in behavioural research such as incorporation of preference and scale heterogeneity, attribute processing heuristics, and estimation of willingness to pay (WTP) in WTP space. With rare exception, however, a non-linear treatment of the parameter set to allow for behavioural reality, such as embedded risk attitude and perceptual conditioning of occurrence probabilities attached to specific attributes, is absent. This is especially relevant to the recent focus in travel behaviour research on identifying the willingness to pay for reduced travel time variability, which is the source of estimates of the value of trip reliability that has been shown to take on an increasingly important role in project appraisal. This paper incorporates, in a generalised non-linear (in parameters) logit model, alternative functional forms for perceptual conditioning (known as probability weighting) and risk attitude in the utility function to account for travel time variability, and then derives an empirical estimate of the willingness to pay for trip time variability-embedded travel time savings as an alternative to separate estimates of time savings and trip time reliability. We illustrate the richness of the approach using a stated choice data set for commuter choice between unlabelled attribute packages. Statistically significant risk attitude parameters and parameters underlying decision weights are estimated for multinomial logit and mixed multinomial logit models, along with values of expected travel time savings.     

基于自抗扰控制器的猎雷声纳基阵姿态稳定系统研究

依据声纳基阵姿态控制稳定回路数学模型及工作环境的特点,采用具有非线性结构的自抗扰控制器实现了声纳基阵姿态稳定系统的控制.仿真结果说明,稳定系统的动、静态性能满足指标要求;与经典的PID控制效果相比,控制性能得到了全面改善.     

基于两台双天线GPS测向单元的靶船测姿方法

介绍了GPS侧向单元CrescentVectorModule性能,给出了一种利用两台GPS侧向单元测量靶船姿态的硬件与软件实现方法,给出了标校方法和测量精度。根据测试方案实现的测姿平台在海上试验的实际应用中取得了很好的效果。     

The role of residential self-selection in land use-travel research: a review of recent findings

ABSTRACT

Residential self-selection (RSS) is an important concern in the land use-travel research. Although many studies have addressed RSS during the past two decades, empirical results are inconsistent in terms of the existence, magnitude, and direction of self-selection bias. Moreover, recent studies substantiated other plausible associations within the theoretical framework of RSS, such as the endogeneity of travel attitudes. These further complicate the role of RSS in the land use-travel relationship. To improve understanding, this paper summarises recent progress in the RSS research, especially the studies published in the last decade. Specifically, we review three types of influences among the built environment, attitudes, and travel behaviour, and discuss unsolved problems within each type. We also discuss measurement issues of the built environment and attitudes in the RSS research. Because attitudes could be confounders, moderators, and mediators of the link between the built environment and travel behaviour, we recommend panel data with at least three waves of household travel surveys to address the complicated influences of attitudes. Future research needs to be more process-oriented to better understand the nature of RSS and its complex roles in the land use-travel research.     

较大安装误差时浮标倾角的测量方法

浮标水中姿态的测量是研究浮标性能的重要环节，通过在浮标上安装姿态传感器可以测量浮标的姿态，但姿态传感器的安装误差会影响测量准确性。给出了一种矩阵变换求解浮标姿态的方法，可以在姿态传感器具有较大安装误差时精确地解算出浮标姿态，该方法可以推广至一般水面漂浮物的姿态测量。     

GPRSTK在航潮位测量及在天津新港航道的实现

在分析传统潮位测量方法和潮位模型缺陷的基础上,给出了GPS在航潮位测量方法。基于GPSRTK动态定位技术,系统地研究了GPS RTK在航潮位测量、数据处理的基本理论和流程,并对潮位测量和数据处理中的GPS RTK高程质量控制、姿态改正、动态吃水改正、潮位提取、垂直基准转换5个关键问题进行了深入研究,最终确定了测量船测量期间的在航潮位。将这些研究成果应用到天津新港航道的在航潮位试验中,2 d的试验结果表明,GPS在航潮位测量方法相对传统的潮位测量方法在实施的简便性、精度等方面具有较大的优越性。鉴于该方法的特点以及航道的特点,建议该方法广泛推广应用于航道在航潮位测量中。     

青少年逆反心理及其疏导

青少年在接受学校教育过程中常常存在着一些特殊心理活动现象,逆反心理就是其中的一种。如何从学校教育的角度认识逆反心理现象,从教育、心理理论研究的视角探讨青少年客观存在着的心理“逆反”问题,对提高学校教育教学效果具有极其深刻的现实意义。     

弹道导弹中段RCS控制研究

RCS是影响防御系统雷达探测和目标识别的重要因素。针对导弹突防面临的预警雷达威胁,在空间弹道解算的基础上,分析弹头姿态角随时间的变化规律,建立雷达电磁波对导弹入射角模型。在雷达电磁入射角变化下,仿真分析弹道导弹中段RCS起伏特性。该研究为合理规划弹道导弹姿态控制要求,降低防御系统雷达探测跟踪能力具有一定的参考价值。     

基于CFD的两栖车辆阻力和浮态数值模拟

运用fluent软件,基于计算流体力学(CFD)理论知识,对两栖车辆水上行驶阻力和行驶浮态进行了数值模拟。重点介绍了混合网格的划分方法,对模拟结果和实验结果进行了对比分析。模拟结果和实验结果基本吻合,从而论证了用数值模拟方法对两栖车辆的水上性能模拟研究的可行性。     

基于前景理论的船舶避碰决策优化方法

针对船舶避碰决策行为差异,提出一种运用前景理论求取最佳船舶避碰决策方案的优化方法。在分析避碰行为个体差异的基础上,运用前景理论和多指标灰关联决策相结合的方法,构建考虑驾驶员风险态度的船舶避碰方案选择决策优化模型,以船舶碰撞危险度、航程损失和轨迹平稳性作为决策指标,研究在同一会遇场景下驾驶员不同风险态度的最优避碰方案并进行对比分析。研究结果表明:该模型可优化船舶驾驶员在不同风险偏好下的最优避碰方案选择,将前景理论运用到船舶避碰决策优化中是可行且有效的,能为船舶避碰决策和决策拟人化提供支持。