Active school travel: homogeneity or heterogeneity? That is the question

ABSTRACT

To explain and predict active school travel (AST), most studies have not investigated to what extent considering taste heterogeneity is an important influence on AST share. The main aim of the present study was to evaluate whether considering unobserved taste heterogeneity through mixed logit models – including random coefficient and random coefficient analysis (RCA) – materially improves/influences the AST prediction compared to a simpler model – the multinomial logit (MNL) model. The database comprises 735 valid observations. The results show that, with a 10% increase in perceived walking time to school, the MNL model predicts that the AST share would decrease by 7.8% (from 18.9% to 17.4%) while the RCA model predicts that it would decrease by 8.5% (from 18.9% to 17.3%). Thus, the expected share of AST is overestimated by MNL by one-tenth of a percentage point. Although there might be random taste variations around perceived distance to school, it seems the other important policy-sensitive variables, such as safety perception, homogeneously impacts on the AST share across households with different socioeconomic and built environment characteristics. Our empirical assessment suggests that considering taste heterogeneity does not necessarily improve the accuracy of analysis for the aggregate share of the AST concerning policy-sensitive variables.     

Effect of surface roughness and initial gap on the vortex-induced vibrations of a freely vibrating cylinder in the vicinity of a plane wall

We studied the effects of the surface roughness and initial gap on the responses of vortex-induced vibration (VIV) of a circular cylinder near a stationary plane wall, employing numerical methods. The VIV response amplitudes, lock-in regions, hydrodynamic forces, VIV trajectories and flow fields for three different surface roughnesses and two different initial gaps were systematically compared. The results reveal that the reduced velocity range can be divided into three regions based on the VIV amplitude as pre-lock-in, lock-in, and post-lock-in regions. The width of the lock-in region is not sensitive to the variation of the roughness. The mean drag coefficient has a decreasing tendency with the increased roughness. For a small initial gap, the clockwise wall boundary layer vortices has coalesced with the clockwise vortices shed from the upper side of the cylinder, which further suppresses the shedding of the counter-clock wise vortices from the lower side of the cylinder. The vortex shedding flow pattern displays a weak 2S mode. However, for a large initial gap, there is no coalescing action operating in the wake region and hence most of the vortex shedding flow patterns show an asymmetric 2S mode.     

Dynamic responses analysis of a 5 MW spar-type floating wind turbine under accidental ship-impact scenario

Ship impact against offshore floating wind turbine (OFWT) has been identified as one of the major hazards with the development of OFWTs. The dynamic responses of OFWTs under ship impact should be taken into consideration during the design phase. This paper addresses a study on the dynamic responses of an OFWT in ship collision scenarios. Firstly, a mathematical model for external mechanism of ship-OFWT collision scenario is developed. Secondly, this model is combined with an in-house programme, DARwind, which can be used to predict nonlinear dynamic responses of whole OFWT system in time-domain. With the newly combined analysis tool, simulation cases for different scenarios are conducted to investigate the nonlinear dynamic responses of OFWT system, including the cases of still water condition, wave-only condition and wind-wave condition. It is shown that in still water condition, the ship impact will more obviously change the responses of motions and mooring system, compared with those in wave and wave-wind conditions. In the wave-only condition, these motions responses of platform are suppressed by wave effect, but the tower vibration and tower top deformation are sensitive to ship collision. For the wave-wind combined condition, the motions increment in surge and pitch due to ship collision becomes smaller than that of wave-only condition, but yaw motion has a considerable variation compared with those of the other two conditions. Additionally, the blade tip deformation increment due to ship collision are analyzed and it is found that the edgewise tip deformation got more obvious increment than that of flapwise. To further asses the safety of OFWT, the acceleration at nacelle are analyzed because some equipment might be sensitive to acceleration. The analysis results indicate that even though the OFWT structure doesn't get critical damage by ship impact, the equipment inside may still fail to work due to the high value of acceleration induced by ship impact. The research outcomes can benefit the safety design of OFWT in the engineering practice.     

Stochastic averaging for estimating a ship roll in random longitudinal or oblique waves

In this work, the C11 container ship is taken as an example to analyze its rolling performances in random longitudinal or oblique waves. Firstly, a dynamic model of C11 roll in random waves is improved, and it is verified by the model test and numerical simulation. Mathematically, this dynamic model is a one-dimensional stochastic differential equation with random parametric (and external) excitation. Secondly, an enhanced stochastic averaging method is proposed to solve this stochastic differential equation. The validity of the solutions was verified by Monte Carlo simulation. At last, the probabilistic characteristics of the extreme rolling response were investigated based on the calculated results using enhanced stochastic averaging method. According to the analysis, some advices for ship's manoeuvring can be put forward when ships are navigating in random waves.     

某集装箱船实船与模型试验相关分析

本文对某集装箱船模型试验预报结果及5条姊妹船实船试航数据进行了相关分析。同一型船因为实际试航海况的差异，采用ISO15016:2015的方法进行修正后，得到的功率相关因子值有一定差异。这主要因该修正方法还是难以考虑到实际试航时各种复杂的气象、海况及水文条件。该方法虽存有一定的近似和不周之处，但其修正后的结果通常还是可以用于常规的航速预报，有一定的可信度，但与在标准试航条件下所测得的结果还是会有一定的差异。     

Ocean wave spectrum estimation using measured vessel motions from an in-service container ship

This article is about the use of measured wave-induced vessel motions for estimation of ocean wave spectra by application of the wave buoy analogy. In the study, data from a larger, in-service container ship is considered. The estimation of wave spectra, equivalently sea state parameters, is based on measurements from, respectively, a gyro and two accelerometers leading to the simultaneous use of the pitching motion together with the horizontal and vertical accelerations in a position close to the forward perpendicular. The study of in-service data leads to contemplations about the vessel's advance speed, as the possible existence of sea current means that speed-over-ground (SOG) and speed-through-water (STW) will be different. The article discusses aspects related to advance speed in the context of the wave buoy analogy, and a smaller sensitivity study is conducted. Preceding to the sensitivity study, a comparison is made between sea state estimates by the wave buoy analogy and estimates obtained from a hindcast study. The article shows an acceptable agreement between the two sets of estimates. Following, the main conclusion from the sensitivity study on advance speed is that errors and uncertainties in the speed log have an effect on the estimates of the wave buoy analogy. In fact, the effect can be severe if reliable STW measurements are not available. In the final part, the article includes a few discussions about (non)stationary conditions in the context of the wave buoy analogy, and, although the effect on results is not necessarily detrimental, care must be shown when the wave buoy analogy is applied during in-service conditions.     

某公务船抗碰撞性能研究

公务船在领海和专属经济区执行维权执法任务时,存在较高的与其他船舶发生主动或被动碰撞的风险。为了准确评估公务船的耐撞性能,本文以某公务船为例,考虑多种计算工况,对目标船的耐撞性能进行动态响应计算,获得了机舱及首部区域的结构损伤、应力、能量吸收等动态结构响应,并计算获得被撞船达到临界状态时的极限撞击速度。研究成果可为公务船的防撞结构设计提供参考。     

基于生存分析的山区双车道公路超车持续时间模型

为研究混合交通流条件下山区双车道公路超车行为，确定关键影响因素与超车持续时间的关系。以云南省典型山区双车道公路为例，利用无人机采集超车行为视频数据，提取参与超车行为的机动车轨迹，构建超车行为变量指标体系，分析山区双车道公路超车行为特性；建立基于生存分析的山区双车道公路超车持续时间模型，确定影响超车持续的关键协变量，并分析关键协变量与超车持续时间的定量关系。结果表明：混合交通流条件下，山区双车道公路平均超车持续时间为10.3 s，平均超车距离为201.3 m，由驾驶员的驾驶风格、较高的行驶速度及复杂的交通流条件共同作用所致；Log-logistic 加速失效时间模型对超车持续时间拟合效果最好，AIC和BIC分别为272.989和265.650，危险函数拐点约为13 s，说明超车行为在13 s前结束的可能性最大；影响超车持续时间的关键变量分别为超车距离和超车车辆与被超车车辆的初始速度差、最大横向距离、是否有对向车、被超车车辆长度和超车车辆类型，影响程度较大的协变量为超车车辆类型和是否有对向车，当超车车辆为货车时，超车持续时间增加了22.9%，当有对向车时，超车持续时间降低了17.8%。     

河床墩台局部冲刷计算公式及其影响因素研究

在介绍国内外桥墩局部冲刷公式的基础上,以泰州长江公路大桥为例,验算了我国现行规范中的桥墩局部冲刷计算公式,分析局部冲刷的影响因素。结果表明:桥墩非黏性土冲刷公式中,65-1修正式计算结果较为合理;影响桥墩局部冲刷深度的因素有潮流作用和偏角大小。     

浅析隆鑫二代三轮自卸摩托车的开发设计

采用液压动力单元的三轮自卸摩托车与传统三轮自卸摩托车相比,发动机动力传递系统与自卸驱动系统相互独立,并且自卸驱动系统集成于一体,使整个结构进一步紧凑,避免了互相产生的不利影响,自卸过程较稳定,拆卸和安装方便,能够安装于不同车辆,通用性较强。