基于问卷调查的公众交通安全意识评价方法

为了评价公众交通安全意识,进而明确不同年龄、不同受教育程度、不同职业和不同出行方式的公众群体交通安全意识的差异性,对公众交通安全意识调查数据进行了量化分析。首先,基于自主编制的公众交通安全意识问卷对5 029名参与者进行了调查;其次,对回收的问卷进行因子分析和信度、效度检验,得到了交通安全行为、交通安全态度和交通管理认知3个因子;最后,选取上述因子作为3个一级评价指标,因子所含条目作为17个二级评价指标,对公众交通安全意识进行评价,采用主成分分析法计算因子得分,并应用熵值法确定一级评价指标权重,再通过灰色关联分析计算灰色关联度,最终根据模糊综合评价得出不同公众群体的交通安全意识水平。研究结果表明：不同年龄段的公众中,18~40岁群体交通安全意识水平最高（b=0.79）,41~65岁（b=0.44）和65岁以上（b=0.45）群体交通安全意识水平较低;不同受教育程度的公众中,专科学历群体的交通安全意识水平最高（b=1）,小学及以下学历群体其交通安全意识水平较低（b=0.33）;不同职业的公众中,事业单位人员群体的交通安全意识水平最高（b=0.93）,农民群体的交通安全意识水平较低（b=0.33）;不同出行方式的公众中,以公交车为主要出行方式的群体其交通安全意识水平最高（b=0.91）,而以三轮车（b=0.35）和自行车（b=0.36）为主要出行方式的群体其交通安全意识水平较低。研究结果可用于不同公众群体交通安全意识的度量,并为不同群体的交通安全意识提升方法制定提供理论依据。     

Artificial forces for virtual autonomous ships with encountering situations in restricted waters

ABSTRACT

Even if the same two ships operate in the same encountering situation, the actual strategies and timing of operations may be different. Therefore, the fixed collision avoidance trajectory and ship movements are no longer suitable for simulating the real ship behaviour. This paper tries to develop an artificial intelligent system that fully sensitive to the local circumstances and command a ship in virtual environment. Based on AIS (Automatic Identification System) data, this study has developed artificial forces which help decision makings on-board independently under different situations and catching the stochastic nature of ship behaviours during collision avoidances manoeuvring. Actual ship tracks are helpful for ascertaining the parameters that contribute to artificial forces in collision avoidances, while the correlation coefficient analysis is helpful to distinguish the parameters. This study will help to develop a navigation traffic simulation to reflect the realistic ship behaviour and provide reliable information for port and waterway planning, risk analysis, and mitigation measures. The method can be used in developing algorithms for autonomous ships. The method introduced in this study lays a foundation for developing artificial forces at intersections or bends, although the model is only applicable in straight channels at the moment.     

船舶物流技术发展探究

本文系统梳理了我国船舶物流技术的发展现状及其成因,进而提出了船上物流标准化、信息化、自动化和智能化的总体发展方案,尤其是融合发展策略,将助推船舶物流技术的发展。     

浅析结合用户调研管理汽车感知质量

文章首先综合分析的当前国内乘用车市场形势,提出汽车感知质量提升势在必行,接下来分析了行业内主流的用户调研手段,研究了用户调研与感知质量两者之间的关系,总结了用户调研信息对感知质量管理的作用。     

Benefit of speed reduction for ships in different weather conditions

Currently, the shipping industry is facing a great challenge of reducing emissions. Reducing ship speeds will reduce the emissions in the immediate future with no additional infrastructure. However, a detailed investigation is required to verify the claim that a 10% speed reduction would lead to 19% fuel savings (Faber et al., 2012).This paper investigates fuel savings due to speed reduction using detailed modeling of ship performance. Three container ships, two bulk carriers, and one tanker, representative of the shipping fleet, have been designed. Voyages have been simulated by modeling calm water resistance, wave resistance, propulsion efficiency, and engine limits. Six ships have been simulated in various weather conditions at different speeds. Potential fuel savings have been estimated for a range of speed reductions in realistic weather.It is concluded that the common assumption of cubic speed-power relation can cause a significant error in the estimation of bunker consumption. Simulations in different seasons have revealed that fuel savings due to speed reduction are highly weather dependent. Therefore, a simple way to include the effect of weather in shipping transport models has been proposed.Speed reduction can lead to an increase in the number of ships to fulfill the transport demand. Therefore, the emission reduction potential of speed reduction strategy, after accounting for the additional ships, has been studied. Surprisingly, when the speed is reduced by 30%, fuel savings vary from 2% to 45% depending on ship type, size and weather conditions. Fuel savings further reduce when the auxiliary engines are considered.     

大型活动的交通调查及分析

随着我国经济的不断发展,全国各地举行的大型活动越来越多。大型活动产生突增交通量造成周边地区的交通拥挤,而分析大型活动带来的交通拥挤则是以对大型活动的交通调查为基础的。以长春市南岭体育场周围的道路交通系统为基础,对举行足球比赛产生的观众到达高峰和离开高峰进行了实地调查,并通过问卷的方式对观众出行方式及其他与此活动相关的特性进行了分析。     

基于规范方法的小水线面双体船疲劳强度研究

论文介绍了船舶结构疲劳强度评估基本原理,并对一条2200t级小水线面双体船进行规范法疲劳强度评估。针对小水线面双体船结构特点,采用规范进行疲劳载荷计算;结合全船有限元计算结果进行疲劳部位筛选;采用有限元法提取疲劳部位的热点应力,并计算疲劳部位的累积损伤度。分析计算结果,提出疲劳部位优化方案。     

带扰动观测器的船舶轨迹跟踪自适应动态面滑模控制

针对遭受未知外部环境扰动的三自由度全驱动船舶轨迹跟踪控制问题,设计一种带扰动观测器的自适应动态面滑模控制方法。该方法构造扰动观测器估计未知扰动,并对控制量进行前馈补偿,采用σ修正泄漏项的自适应律估计扰动观测误差的界以提高控制精度,结合动态面技术解决传统反演法的微分爆炸问题,并选取李雅普诺夫函数证明该控制器可保证闭环系统内所有信号的一致最终有界性。基于一艘供给船舶进行仿真试验,结果表明,所设计的控制器输出合理有效且跟踪精度高,在工程实际中具有一定的参考价值。     

How do economies of density in container handling operations affect ships’ time and emissions in port? Evidence from Norwegian container terminals

Efficient port services are prerequisites for competitive and sustainable maritime transports. This paper makes advances in studying the determinants of the time that ships spend in port and the associated emissions to air. We estimate a production model for cargo handling based on a unique dataset containing each port of call at the largest container terminals in Norway in 2014. In turn, we use auxiliary engine emission factors to estimate particulate matter and nitrogen oxide emissions from ships at berth, to determine how the corresponding damage costs of air pollution vary with container throughput, location, and terminal investments. We find that Norwegian container terminals operate under increasing returns to density. Small ships that unload few containers are far from reaping economies of density, leading to high marginal time requirements for container handling and consequently high marginal external costs. From a Pigouvian taxation perspective, port charges should therefore be regressive in the number of containers handled. Moreover, we find that the external costs of maritime transports are severely understated when port operations are ignored. Our model allows determining the marginal productivities of port facilities. Thereby, it is instrumental in designing port charges that are diversified according to the quantity of containers handled and the service quality (i.e., the speed of handling operations). Regarding contextual factors, we find that establishing high-frequent liner services improves the ship working rate, while simultaneous calls at a terminal impede productivity. The type of container (loading/unloading; empty/laden) also appears to influence the duration of ship working.     

燃气轮机的大型集装箱船LNG燃料舱布置

为了满足环保新法规要求,很多船东首选LNG作为船用燃料。本文基于燃气轮机推进的大型集装箱船的布置特点及IGF规则的要求,对LNG燃料舱布置的位置和LNG燃料舱适用的形式进行了论证,获得了满足大型集装箱船性能需求和IGF规则要求的LNG燃料舱设计方案。