城市群双线客流分布预测方法研究

鉴于城市群客流预测在城市群轨道交通规划中的重要性,为提高其预测精度,对城市群客流预测中的分布预测方法进行研究.分析现实能够收集到的资料及城市群交通分布的特点,提出城市群双线分布预测方法.在城市群资料有限的情况下,研究如何得到城市群分布的预测结果;阐述分布预测的计算方法,建立相关的计算模型,对几种常用的分布预测模型进行优缺点及适用性分析.     

雾化液滴尺寸和速度分布函数的推导

为了增强雾化液滴质量和热量的传递,有效预测与评价喷雾质量,应用最大熵原理和动量守恒定律推导出了新的雾化液滴尺寸和速度的概率密度分布函数,包括数目分布函数、数目微分分布函数、体积分布函数、体积微分分布函数与总体积公式。当不考虑速度分布时,推导的喷雾液滴尺寸分布与曹建明先前推导的尺寸分布具有完全相同的形式,其分布函数是Nukiyama-Tanasawa型雾化液滴尺寸分布函数的一种特定形式,推导结果具有普适意义。     

沥青混合料油膜厚度计算方法

为了精确计算沥青混合料油膜厚度,考虑了矿粉粒度、沥青混合料压实程度和沥青比例的影响,采用HORIBA-300型激光散射粒度分布分析仪对矿粉的粒度进行测量,分析了矿粉粒度的尺寸范围,提出了沥青隔离膜的概念,建立了沥青油膜厚度计算模型。采用旋转压实仪成型沥青混凝土试件,对比分析了沥青油膜的计算值与实际测量值。分析结果表明:采用新的油膜公式反算的沥青用量范围为4.55%～4.85%,采用传统方法反算的沥青用量范围为4.20%～5.20%,而试验最佳沥青用量为4.70%,显然新方法精度高。     

Enhancing stated preference surveys in transportation research: the contribution of geographic information systems

In this paper we argue that visualization, data management and computational capabilities of geographic information systems (GIS) can assist transportation stated preference research in capturing the contextual complexity of many transportation decision environments by providing respondents with maps and other spatial and non-spatial information in graphical form that enhance respondents' understanding of decision scenarios. We explore the multiple inherent contributions of GIS to transportation stated preference data collection and propose a framework for a GIS-based stated preference survey instrument. We also present the design concepts of two survey prototypes and their GIS implementation for a sample travel mode choice problem.     

TRIP DISTRIBUTION MODELLING USING FUZZY LOGIC AND A GENETIC ALGORITHM

This article examines possibilities for the application of soft computing techniques for the prediction of travel demand. The model, based on fuzzy logic and a genetic algorithm, successfully solves the trip distribution problem. The possibilities of using the proposed model in solving trip generation, modal split and route choice problems have also been indicated. The model has been tested on a real numerical example. Exceptionally good correspondences between estimated and real values of passenger flows have been obtained.     

Cycle commuting in Belgium: Spatial determinants and ‘re-cycling’ strategies

This paper attempts to explain the spatial variation of the use of a bicycle for commuting to work at the level of the 589 municipalities in Belgium. Regression techniques were used and special attention was paid to autocorrelation, heterogeneity and multicollinearity. Spatial lag models were used to correct for the presence of spatial dependence and a disaggregated modelling strategy was adopted for the northern and southern parts of the country. The results show that much of the inter-municipality variation in bicycle use is related to environmental aspects such as the relief, traffic volumes and cycling accidents. Town size, distance travelled and demographic aspects also have some effect. In addition, there are regional differences in the effects of the structural covariates on bicycle use: the impact of variables such as traffic volume and cycling accidents differs substantially between the north and the south of the country. This paper also suggests that high rates of bicycle use in one municipality stimulate cycling in neighbouring municipalities, and hence that a mass effect can be initiated, i.e. more cycle commuting encourages even more commuters in the area to cycle. These findings provide some recommendations for decision-makers wishing to promote a shift from car to bicycle use.     

Design and evaluation of an integrated inventory and transportation system

This paper proposes the adoption of an integrated inventory and transportation system (IITS) to minimize the total costs of inventory and transportation. A non-linear programing is developed by analyzing transportation and inventory costs with one supplier and many retailers in the distribution environment. The paper compares the proposed model with the traditional approach in computing total costs with numerical data. The results indicate that the total costs can be optimized by adopting integrated programing rather than the traditional approach, along with achieving improved customer service levels. In particular, sensitivity analysis is applied to determine the performance of the IITS under various transportation costs, holding costs and shortage costs. It shows that the transportation cost per unit is most sensitive in the proposed model. In this situation, the IITS is more effective for cost saving when set-up cost, holding and shortage costs are high, but is less effective for situations involving high per-unit transportation costs.     

Accessibility and transport infrastructure improvement assessment: The role of borders and multilateral resistance

The market potential indicator is a commonly used tool in transport planning for evaluating the potential economic effects derived from improvements in transport infrastructures. The general assumption is that exports from a given region will rise with increased accessibility, thus benefiting economic activities. However, the specification of the market potential model is typically very simple and ignores both the impact of competing rivals and the role of international borders, which leads to unrealistic results. Spatial interaction models on bilateral trade have already proved that international trade is affected by multilateral resistance, borders, adjacency, language or currency. Nevertheless, apart from some recent analyses that simply calibrate the distance decay parameter from trade datasets, these variables have hardly been integrated into research on market potential. This paper sets out to demonstrate that more realistic results are obtained by calibrating the distance-decay parameter and introducing the impact of competing rivals and border effects into the market potential formulation. The proposed model is then applied to the assessment of the accessibility impacts of new road transport infrastructure in the European Union between 2001 and 2012, which shows that the greatest improvements in accessibility were experienced by peripheral countries with high road infrastructure investment.     

公路隧道供配电设计午若干问题探讨

针对公路隧道供配电系统设计中存在的一些问题，结合实际工程中供配电系统的设计、施工及运营管理经验进行简要分析，并就公路隧道供配电系统的设计提出具体意见和建议，供设计、施工人员参考     

物流配送中心服务能力仿真评价

通过描述和分析配送中心服务系统的功能和结构,构建了每天订单到达数量服从泊松分布、订单到达间隔时间服从指数分布、每次订货数量服从某一均值的正态分布的物流配送中心仿真模型,采用Java语言开发了仿真程序,并通过案例运行了该仿真模型,证明了该仿真系统对于评价物流配送中心服务能力的有效性.