A note on the use of correlation coefficients for assessing goodness-of-fit in spatial interaction models

The use of correlation coefficients to evaluate the accuracy of spatial interaction models is inappropriate unless such models have been fitted using least squares techniques. In other cases the correlation involves an implicit intercept value and a regression coefficient that may significantly modify the interaction model's estimates. Researchers have not acknowledged the role of these two parameters when the correlation is used. A generalized root mean square error is proposed as an alternative indicator of accuracy that may be used with any model.     

京津冀一体化轨道交通协调发展研究和展望

京津冀协同发展上升为国家战略,需要区域轨道交通协调发展来支撑和服务于区域一体化发展。从京津冀协同发展空间布局及产业转移的角度出发,提出各种轨道交通的层次及服务功能,在此基础上对轨道交通协调发展研究提出应抓住规划,处理好既有轨道交通与新增轨道交通、客货运主要通道与交通引导(TOD)、各种轨道交通间协调衔接等方面关系;加快投融资改革,实施同步建设;创新体制,实现管理协调发展;加大政策扶持,达到轨道交通可持续发展等方面进行研究,同时对区域轨道交通进行展望,对京津冀一体化轨道交通协调发展研究方向、研究领域和空间进行了浅议。     

Spatial fisheries ecology: Recent progress and future prospects

We review recent progresses made in the study of fish distribution and survival over space — i.e., fisheries spatial ecology. This is achieved by first surveying the most common statistical approaches and relative challenges associated with the analysis of fisheries spatial data, loosely grouped in geostatistical and regression approaches. Then we review a selected number of case-studies implementing the discussed techniques. We conclude by proposing new areas of statistical and ecological research to further our understanding of how fish distribute and survive in space. This review serves a dual purpose by emphasizing the scientific importance of studying spatial interactions to better understand the temporal dynamics of fish abundance, and by promoting the development of new analytical and ecological approaches for the analysis of spatial data. Through our survey we cover different statistical techniques, marine ecosystems and life stages. This analytical, geographic and ontogenetic variety is also purposely selected to highlight the importance of comparative and multidisciplinary studies across diverging ecological disciplines, ecosystems and life stages. Besides having a general ecological relevance this review also bears a more applied significance, owing to the increasing need for protecting renewable marine resources along with their primary habitat.     

Choice of parking: Stated preference approach

Over recent years, parking policy has become a key element of transport policy in many countries. Parking policy measures can affect many different dimensions of travel behaviour but are likely to be most significant in terms of travellers' choice of parking type and location. This dimension of travel choice has, to date, received comparatively little attention, yet is of vital importance if we are to properly understand and predict the effects of parking policy measures.This paper presents two studies addressing this issue carried out in the United Kingdom and Germany. Both studies used a stated preference approach in order to collect disaggregate data on travellers responses to changes in parking attributes and used these data to build simple logit models of parking type choice. The studies were designed in order to allow comparable choice models to be estimated from the two datasets. The results obtained strongly indicate the need to separately identify the costs associated with different components of the parking activity (e.g., general in-vehicle time, parking search time, egress time) and also point to the existence of significant differences in the relative valuation of these components across different journey purposes. Where possible, the results of the choice modelling exercises are also compared with existing revealed and stated preference results and are found to be generally in line with prior expectations.     

Management of coastal eutrophication: Integration of field data, ecosystem-scale simulations and screening models

A hybrid approach for eutrophication assessment in estuarine and coastal ecosystems is presented. The ASSETS screening model (http://www.eutro.org) classifies eutrophication status into five classes: High (better), Good, Moderate, Poor and Bad (worse). This model was applied to a dataset from a shallow coastal barrier island system in southwest Europe (Ria Formosa), with a resulting score of Good. A detailed dynamic model was developed for this ecosystem, and the outputs were used to drive the screening model. Four scenarios were run on the research model: pristine, standard (simulates present loading), half and double the current nutrient loading. The Ria Formosa has a short water residence time and eutrophication symptoms are not apparent in the water column. However, benthic symptoms are expressed as excessive macroalgal growth and strong dissolved oxygen fluctuations in the tide pools. The standard simulation results showed an ASSETS grade identical to the field data application. The application of the screening model to the other scenario outputs showed the responsiveness of ASSETS to changes in pressure, state and response, scoring a grade of High under pristine conditions, Good for half the standard scenario and Moderate for double the present loadings. The use of this hybrid approach allows managers to test the outcome of measures against a set of well-defined metrics for the evaluation of state. It additionally provides a way of testing and improving the pressure component of ASSETS. Sensitivity analysis revealed that sub-sampling the output of the research model at a monthly scale, typical for the acquisition of field data, may significantly affect the outcome of the screening model, by overlooking extreme events such as occasional night-time anoxia in tide pools.     

Investigating the influence of soil properties on railway traffic vibration using a numerical model

This paper presents the influence of dynamic and geometrical soil parameters on the propagation of ground vibrations induced by external loads. The proposed approach is based on a three-dimensional model, focusing on realistic excitation sources like impulse loads and moving railway vehicles. For the latter, a complete vehicle/track model is developed. The simulation is performed in time domain, offering an interesting approach, compared with classic cyclic analyses. The ground is modelled initially as an elastic homogeneous half-space and additionally as a layered half-space. First, the effect of homogeneous soil properties on ground vibration is analysed. Soil stratification is then taken into account, using various configurations. Analysis reveals that as receiver distance increases ground wave reflection in a layered ground plays an important role in the reduction of ground surface motion. This effect is magnified when the phase velocity wavelength becomes large compared with the depth of the surface layer.     

混输原油管道优化运行技术研究

针对长吉输油管线采用混合输送方式输送俄罗斯原油和大庆原油及该管线的工程实际,以总运行费用最小为原则,以各站进站温度和开泵方案为决策变量,建立了该管线优化运行的数学模型,采用穷举法穷举出各种可能的开泵方案作为外层嵌套,将进站温度的优化作为内层嵌套求解该模型。通过某天实际运行方案和优化运行方案对比可以看出,优化运行方案总费用降低7%。     

Experimental Investigation of TARMAX Model for Modeling of Hydrodynamic Forces on Cylinder-like Structures

A new approach that models lift and drag hydrodynamic force signals operating over cylindrical structures was developed and validated. This approach is based on stochastic auto regressive moving average with exogenous (ARMAX) input and its time-varying form, TARMAX. Model structure selection and parameter estimation were discussed while considering the validation stage. In this paper, the cylindrical structure was considered as a dynamic system with an incoming water wave and resulting forces as the input a...     

平面信号控制交叉口行人过街的时间模型

平面信号控制交叉口行人过街时间是道路交通安全和交通信号设置的重要参数.通过对成都市6个无左转专用信号的平面信号控制交叉口的24条人行横道上行人过街时间的调查与分析,利用统计学得到平面信号控制交叉口行人过街平均时间模型、85%位时间模型和90%位时间模型,最后根据最小二乘法对所选的主要影响因素与各个多元线性回归模型进行相...     

Financial and environmental impacts of hypothetical Finnish dry port structure

One main theme of European Union’s in transport policy statements has been the increased role of railways in the reducing environmental impacts and costs of transport activity. One option to increase the modal share of rail transport is to utilize the dry port concept, particularly applicable to general cargo. At the Port of Gothenburg (Sweden) use of this concept in combination with rail transport has led to a reduction of CO₂ emissions, and lower transport energy costs. The main objective and motivation of this research work are to examine through analytical models, how this same dry port concept could be implemented in the Finnish transportation network, with estimates of the benefits being gained.The research method of this study is macro gravitational models of distribution. Main input data for the models are distances and population in the area. The approach aims to research, how relative transport costs behave by increasing the number of dry port distribution locations. For the actual computation work the authors apply linear integer programming. Based on the results, the authors argue that relative transport costs can decrease considerably by increasing the number of dry ports, up to the level of six locations. This is considerably less than what is the current situation in Sweden. The found solution also differs from Sweden as the fragmented Finnish seaport system enables using numerous seaports instead of one, which further decreases inland transportation distances and volumes considerably. At the same time forthcoming sulphur emission reduction regulation (for sea transports) might impact the transportation network structure by decreasing sea transport and the number of seaports used. This might lead to a further increase in land-based hinterland transport.