神朔铁路钢轨折断风险评估模型研究

钢轨折断是一类严重的线路故障,研究钢轨折断风险评估对保障线路安全具有重要作用。基于模糊推理方法构建钢轨折断风险评估模型,该模型利用设备台账数据、钢轨状态检测数据和维修数据等相关的生产数据,识别钢轨折断致灾因子,量化评定致灾因子状态,建立模糊推理规则库,利用Mamdani模糊推理算法计算钢轨折断风险事件发生的可能性。最后采用神朔铁路神木北至黄羊城区间2013~2015年共3年的实际生产数据对模型的有效性进行验证,结果表明:所建模型可以较好地评估神朔铁路钢轨折断风险事件发生的可能性,对钢轨折断风险管理具有重要指导意义。     

Short-term statistics of ice loads on ship bow frames in floe ice fields: Full-scale measurements in the Antarctic ocean

Ship operation and ice loading in floe ice fields have received considerable interest during recent years. There have been several numerical simulators developed by different institutes which can simulate ship navigation through floe ice fields and estimate ship performance and local ice loads. However, public data obtained from full-scale measurement covering comprehensively ship performance and ice loads under various ice thicknesses, concentrations and floe sizes are rare. The 2018/19 Antarctic voyage of the Polar Supply and Research Vessel (PSRV) S.A. Agulhas II gathered considerable data of the ship in floe ice fields under various thicknesses, concentrations, and floe sizes. The aim of this paper is to carry out statistical analysis to seek suitable probability distributions which adequately fit the measured ice load and therefore suitable to be used as parent distributions for long-term estimation. For this aim, three categories of probability distributions, namely standard distributions, truncated distributions and mixture distributions are tested. It is found that truncated distributions can fit the load data better than standard distributions bounded at the threshold. In addition, mixture distributions are shown to have promising features, which fit the data well and are able to separate distribution components. Subsequentially, the well-performed distributions are used as parent distributions to make long-term load estimations. The estimation results demonstrate that long-term estimations are sensitive to the selection of parent distribution, which addresses the importance of finding correct distribution to model short-term ice loads. The data of ten selected cases will be published for the use of other researchers.     

格值命题逻辑系统Lvpl中的推理规则

为描述取小、多重推理、多维推理等实际推理方法，在格值命题逻辑系统Lvpl中，引入了几类相应的推理规则．这些推理规则由语法和语义两部分组成，且在两部分之间存在一定的协调水平．证明了对于适当的语法语义协调水平，当Lvpl的公式集的L型模糊集为同态映射时，它们关于这几类推理规则都在一定程度上封闭.     

Additive—Multiplicative Fuzzy Neural Network and Its Performance

Introduction　　Kosko[1] hasprovedthatanadditivefuzzysystemcanapproximateanycontinuousfunctiononacompactdomaintoarbitraryaccuracy .AspointedbyWang[2 ] ,amultiplicativefuzzysystem ,whichisconstructedbyusingGaussianmembershipfunctionandcentroiddefuzzificati…     

事故树的模糊分析方法研究

以事故树作为系统模型，根据模糊集理论，将安全评价的评价等级进行了模糊量化描述，通过对基本事件进行模糊测定所获得的数据，建立了对运行系统进行动态安全评价的数学模型。     

公路隧道超欠挖控制探析

通过对隧道超欠挖数据进行统计分析，归纳出影响隧道超欠挖的五个主要因素，并总结了减小隧道超欠挖的方法。     

Severity of pedestrian injuries due to traffic crashes at signalized intersections in Hong Kong: a Bayesian spatial logit model

The present study intended to (1) investigate the injury risk of pedestrian casualties involved in traffic crashes at signalized intersections in Hong Kong; (2) determine the effect of pedestrian volumes on the severity levels of pedestrian injuries; and (3) explore the role of spatial correlation in econometric crash‐severity models. The data from 1889 pedestrian‐related crashes at 318 signalized intersections between 2008 and 2012 were elaborately collected from the Traffic Accident Database System maintained by the Hong Kong Transport Department. To account for the cross‐intersection heterogeneity, a Bayesian hierarchical logit model with uncorrelated and spatially correlated random effects was developed. An intrinsic conditional autoregressive prior was specified for the spatial correlation term. Results revealed that (1) signalized intersections with greater pedestrian volumes generally exhibited a lower injury risk; (2) ignoring the spatial correlation potentially results in reduced model goodness‐of‐fit, an underestimation of variability and standard error of parameter estimates, as well as inconsistent, biased, and erroneous inference; (3) special attention should be paid to the following factors, which led to a significantly higher probability of pedestrians being killed or sustaining severe injury: pedestrian age greater than 65 years, casualties with head injuries, crashes that occurred on footpaths that were not obstructed/overcrowded, heedless or inattentive crossing, crashes on the two‐way carriageway, and those that occurred near tram or light‐rail transit stops. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于SEA的船舶螺旋桨横振传递路径分析及降噪研究

采用统计能量分析(Statistical Energy Analysis, SEA)对某船螺旋桨轴横振在到舱室中产生的噪声进行了仿真,在图论框架下将SEA系统等效为赋权有向图,求解中高频振动能量传到舱室的主要传递路径。使用偏离算法从赋权图中得到了500条传递权重最大的路径,从而确定螺旋桨振动传递到主机舱和集控室的主要路径。分析结果显示,螺旋桨横振激励主要通过二层甲板的与横舱壁的耦合传递到船首方向的舱室产生噪音,双层底和船壳对振动传递影响较小。在传递路径结构和耦合连接处采取的降噪措施可使集控室的噪声在各频段降低3 dB。     

基于改进Petri网的船舶电力系统故障诊断

将Petri网理论用于船舶电力系统故障诊断中,提出了一种改进的Petri网故障诊断模型。在基本Petri网诊断模型的基础上引入模糊推理规则形成模糊Petri网,说明了该方法的模型构建、推理过程及解析方法的表示。利用该方法对船舶电力系统进行故障诊断使推理过程简洁、诊断快速、诊断结果也更科学有效。     

基于模糊推理的换车道模型

微观交通仿真在交通系统分析和管理方面是1种安全、有效的工具。在交通微观仿真中,用变换车道表现驾驶员行为是1个非常重要的方面;然而,以往的许多换车道模型并没有考虑驾驶员行为的不确定性和认知性。文中利用模糊推理来表现这种不确定性和认知性,从而使换车道行为更加符合现实。通过实际观察数据与模糊推理的微观仿真模拟的结果比较,表明该模型是可行的,有效的。