通信网络运维保障转变研究

通过多个方面对通信企业通信网络运维保障发展转变进行研究,对通信网络运维保障转变进行分析和总结,并从中寻找未来通信网络运维保障的发展趋势。     

因应气候变迁趋势下云端智慧空间决策支援系统探讨

全球暖化的威胁程度日趋严重,世界各地纷传环境灾害事件,依据英国政府2006年公布的《史登报告》（SternReview）,指出：．全球暖化的破坏力很可能使全球经济萎缩20%,全球只要增温2℃,经济生产将会减少3％,每排放1t二氧化碳,就会造成至少85美元的损失,而未来10年全球经济则可能因气候暖化付出7兆美元的代价j。为因应气候变迁,减缓（mitigation）与调适（adaptation）对策是二大策略方向;因此文中针对节能与灾害应变两顼气候调适决策支援为主题,讨论智慧型运输系统（intelligenttransportationsystems,ITS）的节能减碳效果与灾害防救系统的GIS决策支援。     

对公路建设项目后评价的学习和思考

“后评价”工作由世行贷款项目建设引入我国以来,经历了由试点到全面推广的阶段,2011年新《管理办法》和《编制办法》的颁布标志着我国公路建设项目后评价工作得到了又一次的提升,结合对新、旧《办法》的对比学习,简析公路建设项目后评价工作内容的新变化。     

施工方如何加强工程变更管理之我见

结合施工实际,详细地介绍了施工方如何加强工程变更管理,并提出了在具体工作中需要注意的问题。     

刘家院子隧道换拱方案设计研究

探讨了刘家院子隧道Zk13+ 210～Zk13+ 320段换拱的设计方法,同时用midas计算软件对换拱段进行了数值模拟,得出换拱之后衬砌的位移及应力,以此来评价换拱方案的可行性,同时对换拱施工提出了一些建议,对以后类似的工程有一定的借鉴意义.     

Managing Shoreline Change Under Increasing Sea-Level Rise in Ghana

Relative sea-level rise will affect vulnerable coastal communities globally. Quantifying this effect on the coastal environment and infrastructure provides critical information that enables coastal managers to develop sustainable mitigation and adaptation measures. Modeling applications have enabled the past, present, and future trends in shoreline morphology to be investigated in detail. Predictive numerical models depend largely on the reliability of the input data. This article reports on using the Soft Cliff and Platform Erosion (SCAPE) numerical model to simulate future shoreline evolution trend in the central Accra coast in Ghana. The model input parameters include historic shoreline recession rates, wave data, tidal data, bathymetry, beach volume, beach topography, historic relative sea-level rise rates, and the shoreline orientation. The data fed the SCAPE numerical model which simulated the emergence of soft rock shore profiles over timescale of decades to centuries, to project future positions of the central Accra shoreline for the next 100 years under different scenarios of climate change. Simulated future shoreline positions overlaid on a 2005 orthophoto map of Accra enabled vulnerable areas and infrastructure at risk to be identified. It emerged that a highly populated community in central Accra will be inundated by 2065, while the Rivera beach resort will be eroded from 2035. A natural fish landing site in Osu (suburb in Accra) will be lost from 2045. The study has demonstrated that considerable ecological, economic, social, and national losses should be expected within the next century. Shoreline change management options should be explored to help mitigate the expected impact of the sea-level rise.     

Climate Change and Tourist Comfort on Europe's Beaches in Summer: A Reassessment

Major impacts of climate change have been projected for tourism in Europe. Typically, these projections took general tourism activities such as sight-seeing and their climate requirements as their point of reference. The purpose of this study is to reassess the impact of climate change, by looking specifically at beach tourism in summer, a crucial market segment in Europe and more specifically in the Mediterranean. As beach tourism requires relatively high temperatures, relatively modest shifts in attractiveness are found. With respect to climate, the Mediterranean is likely to remain Europe's prime region for summer-time beach tourism for at least the next 50 years. Coastal managers in Mediterranean destinations are advised to focus some of their attention on other climate change impacts such as sea-level rise or water availability, and include environmental quality and diversification of activities in their deliberations. In non-Mediterranean regions, a promising strategy may be to focus on short- and medium-distance visitors who can take advantage of the new opportunities for beach tourism, and to explore the merits of seasonal climate forecasting.     

Testing the Effects of Constraints on Climate Change–Friendly Behavior among Groups of Australian Residents

This study explores the relationship between Australian's attitudes toward climate change impacts on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and environmentally responsible behavior (ERB). We hypothesize that general attitudes toward climate change, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control predict intended and reported behavior, and that attitude negatively influences constraints on adopting ERB. The moderating effect of residential condition (urban vs. rural contexts) was tested across these hypothesized relationships. We randomly selected 200 individuals from eight regions: Five within 50 km of the GBR Coastline and three from the Statistical Metropolitan Areas in Australia. We yielded 1,623 surveys by telephone interviews. Findings confirm our hypotheses and suggest the most important predictor of intentions is perceived behavioral control. The two groups of respondents (urban vs. rural) illustrate different relationships. This study offers insight on how managers of the GBR can effectively shape residents' behavioral tendencies that minimize human impacts on the natural environment.     

万州晒网坝滑坡变形机理及稳定性规律跟踪研究

针对万州晒网坝滑坡地质勘查与长期监测滑移趋势不一致的现状,进行滑移机理跟踪,并通过物探验证跟踪结论。研究了135～175 m范围变化库水位及24 h强降水对该滑坡稳定性的影响,揭示了真实滑移面地质状况,纠正了地勘存在的不足,同时分析了滑移破坏机理。结果表明:该滑坡整体稳定、局部缓慢滑移;并提出了埋入式抗滑桩、裂隙封闭及地表排水的维护方案。     

Impact of Everyday Weather on Individual Daily Travel Behaviours in Perspective: A Literature Review

Despite the hundreds of billions of dollars being spent on infrastructure development -- from roads, rail and airports to energy extraction and power networks to the Internet -- surprisingly little reliable knowledge exists about the performance of these investments in terms of actual costs, benefits and risks. This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost performance in transport infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 258 projects in 20 nations worth approximately US$90 billion (constant 1995 prices). The paper shows with overwhelming statistical significance that in terms of costs transport infrastructure projects do not perform as promised. The conclusion is tested for different project types, different geographical regions and different historical periods. Substantial cost escalation is the rule rather than the exception. For rail, average cost escalation is 45% (SD=38), for fixed links (tunnels and bridges) it is 34% (62) and for roads 20% (30). Cost escalation appears a global phenomenon, existing across 20 nations on five continents. Cost estimates have not improved and cost escalation not decreased over the past 70 years. Cost estimates used in decision-making for transport infrastructure development are highly, systematically and significantly misleading. Large cost escalations combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial risks. However, such risks are typically ignored or underplayed in decision-making, to the detriment of social and economic welfare.