A cause of oversupply and failure in the shipping market: measuring herding behavior effects

ABSTRACT

The shipping market is volatile. In general, the shipping market cycle shows four stages, through—recovery—peak—collapse, while a upward trend lasts for 7~8 years and a downward trend for another 7~8 years. So the market’s bubble is not sustainable but always ends in a recessionary trend. The economic cycle is common knowledge and an axiom of the shipping industry, but many ship-owners take no account of it. Previous study stated that ship-owners’ fears, triggered by a violently changeable market, make them mimic the crowd mind or herd mentality, following market sentiment. This study aims to measure the effects of herding behavior (HB), triggered by market sentiment, on the shipping market. We attempt to address two research questions: (1) How does HB arise, and what course does it follow? (2) How many vessels (or how many tons) were purchased under the influence of HB? We estimate that 50.5% (227.8 vessels) of the total vessels or 30.4% (3,670.2 tons) of the total tonnage were purchased under the influence of HB. Looking at international finance, we found that ship investment HB is a very strong factor of the recent shipping market, at least in Korea.     

价值工程在工程设计方案优选中的应用

建设项目投资控制贯穿于工程建设全过程,设计阶段是全过程投资控制的关键环节。在工程设计方案优选中引入价值工程理论,并指出价值工程分析的不确定性,应用灰色关联分析理论改进价值工程,使工程造价、使用成木及建筑产品功能匹配合理,有效降低建设投资。     

Towards improved port capacity investment decisions under uncertainty: a real options approach

ABSTRACT

Port activity plays an important role in facilitating international trade. Sufficient capacity is indispensable for a port to attract flows to a region and retain them. The capacity decision is the result of a trade-off between investment and waiting costs. Traditional methods to value expansion projects do not deal adequately with managerial flexibility in the face of uncertainty from different sources in the complex port environment. In this paper, real options (RO) models are identified as an alternative method to making project valuations and investment decisions, as they attribute the correct value to managerial flexibility under uncertainty. In order to be able to build and use such RO models for port capacity investment decisions, the sources and implications of uncertainty in the port and the different RO model specifications need to be understood. To this end, both the literature about uncertainty in the port context and the literature about real options models are reviewed in order to provide researchers who want to build their own decision-making models, with the necessary knowledge of both fields. The review makes clear that the complex interactions in and competition between the logistics chains and their actors coming together in ports have significant impacts on port capacity. Uncertainty is also caused by uncertain international trade flows and changes in legislation following new technologies and environmental impacts. An analysis of the components of some general RO models shows how the options of flexible output, investment size and timing are valued by RO models in a setting with demand uncertainty. Moreover, the review presents researchers with insights in how to deal with cooperative and competitive interactions in the chain, time to build, cyclical markets and legislation changes. It also shows how to value the expansion and the phased investment options. The new insights resulting from this review are subsequently combined in a framework that serves as a guideline to build RO models for port capacity investments. Finally, an exemplifying application of the framework is used to build an actual port capacity investment decision model.     

新形势下的基础设施投融资改革初探——城市轨道TOD实践带来的启示

基础设施项目建设对国民经济的拉动效应显而易见,轨道交通建设给城市发展带来更多的机遇和挑战。地方政府在轨道建设前期如何前瞻规划、统筹安排和有效整合沿线资源,探索适合的建设模式对实现项目的可持续发展至关重要。以深圳地铁6号线为例,借鉴香港"轨道+物业"轨道发展经验,通过优化轨道交通沿线土地利用布局和开发强度,实践轨道交通TOD开发模式。阐述城轨TOD与香港地铁"轨道+物业"的理念,分析香港地铁"轨道+物业"模式在大陆应用存在的问题,介绍"轨道+物业"理念在深圳地铁6号线规划研究中的应用成果,将"轨道+物业"的模式与传统模式进行对比,总结城市轨道交通TOD模式成功实施的重要条件。最后对国内城轨TOD成功实施提出一些建议:创新城市轨道交通沿线土地出让和储备机制,探索城市轨道交通和城市空间规划接驳机制,完善城市轨道交通管理体制机制,完善政策及技术规范支撑,加强法规制度保障等。     

停车场产业政策环境及投资分析

随着汽车产量及保有量飞速增长,各城市停车场供给严重不足,中国停车场产业的发展面临巨大挑战。首先对中国停车场产业市场环境和政策环境进行分析,指出中国停车场投资建设项目享受的优惠政策有限且扶持力度一般。然后,对停车场经营企业的主要业务模式进行归纳,重点对不同投资规模项目进行分析。结果显示：轻资产类型停车场项目对成本控制要求比较严格,毛利率较低,主要依靠规模经济;重资产类型项目对产业政策依赖程度较高,若无足够政策扶持,投资的内部收益水平及投资回收期都难以达到正常投资要求。最后指出,中国停车场产业需要更有效的行业政策支持,特别是商业配套面积扶持。     

降低客运行车事故的客运站安全管理分析

本文通过对客运行车事故因素的分析,确定了客运站对于客运行车事故具有不可推卸的责任,进而从驾驶人员、车辆、旅客、行包、气候恶劣行车管理五个方面对客运站安全管理进行分析,提出了客运站相应的安全管理措施建议。     

投资项目后评价的应用案例研究

结合企业投资管理中项目后评价的操作经验,阐述项目后评价的内涵、主要内容及实际应用中需关注的要点,最后,针对企业实际投资的项目进行案例研究。     

水泥稳定砂性料掺碎石铺筑路面基层的应用

为了开辟筑路材料的新来源,节约工程投资,对用水泥稳定砂性料掺碎石能否铺筑路面基层的应用问题作了探讨。结合省道238线普宁段二级公路改建工程的实践,介绍用水泥稳定砂性料掺碎石铺筑路面基层的施工过程。     

市政管网共同沟建设分析

随着现代社会经济的高速发展,城市的规模逐渐扩大,将各种市政管线以合理的方式进行集中统筹安排,已是大势所趋,建设共同沟正是解决这一问题的最佳方法。     

城市交通投资的消费者福利评价

城市交通中多种出行方式共存等特性使传统的成本一效益分析法难以分析出交通投资产生的效果。文中假设发生在各起讫点问的交通出行是1个消费者代表的出行选择结果,推导一般均衡条件下交通服务供应水平变化与消费者剩余之间的关系。通过Logit模型模拟方式选择得到需求函数,结果显示交通投资产生的消费者福利与交通方式选择集的最大效用的期望值有关,表明以离散选择模型为基础的福利评价方法适用于多种交通投资的效果评价,包括交通方式选择集发生变化的情况。