波罗的海干散货指数的简单预测方法

波罗的海干散货指数(BDI)被公认为国际干散货市场的晴雨表,预测BDI十分困难,也十分重要。着重介绍几种简单实用的数值拟合方法,并建立BDI预测模型,为航运管理人员提供参考。     

Roads in transition: Integrated modeling of a manufacturer-traveler-infrastructure system in a mixed autonomous/human driving environment

This paper develops an integrated model to characterize the market penetration of autonomous vehicles (AVs) in urban transportation networks. The model explicitly accounts for the interplay among the AV manufacturer, travelers with heterogeneous values of travel time (VOTT), and road infrastructure capacity. By making in-vehicle time use more leisurely or productive, AVs reduce travelers’ VOTT. In addition, AVs can move closer together than human-driven vehicles because of shorter safe reaction time, which leads to increased road capacity. On the other hand, the use of AV technologies means added manufacturing cost and higher price. Thus, traveler adoption of AVs will trade VOTT savings with additional out-of-pocket cost. The model is structured as a leader (AV manufacturer)-follower (traveler) game. Given the cost of producing AVs, the AV manufacturer sets AV price to maximize profit while anticipating AV market penetration. Given an AV price, the vehicle and routing choice of heterogeneous travelers are modeled by combining a multinomial logit model with multi-modal multi-class user equilibrium (UE). The overall problem is formulated as a mathematical program with complementarity constraints (MPCC), which is challenging to solve. We propose a solution approach based on piecewise linearization of the MPCC as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) and solving the MILP to global optimality. Non-uniform distribution of breakpoints that delimit piecewise intervals and feasibility-based domain reduction are further employed to reduce the approximation error brought by linearization. The model is implemented in a simplified Singapore network with extensive sensitivity analyses and the Sioux Falls network. Computational results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the solution approach and yield valuable insights about transportation system performance in a mixed autonomous/human driving environment.     

财富积累与可持续发展:华村的启示

财富的积累与社会的变迁相联系。华村集体与村民财富的积累得益于城市化和市场经济的机遇。经济精英的创新作为是华村可持续发展的主体动因。     

也论柴油轿车在国内市场的发展前景

研究了世界范围内柴油机在乘用车领域内的应用现状,阐述了柴油机作为车用动力的优势。根据国内的政策环境与市场环境,分析了排放法规、柴油品质对市场的影响。根据对柴油轿车的性能要求,包括振动和噪声、排放等,分析了更适合我国轿车柴油机发展的技术路线,并重点对若干关键技术和难点进行了剖析。柴油机技术进步和市场化应用表明,柴油轿车在我国具有广阔的应用前景,政府和企业应做好政策和技术上的准备。     

The value of options for time charterparty extension: an artificial neural networks (ANN) approach

The most frequently associated options in the physical shipping market are options to extend the charter period on time charters and additional shipment options on contracts of affreightment. The value of freight options, in practice, is estimated mostly by referring to forward curves. An option on freight has different properties from its financial counterparts, and the straightforward adoption of theoretical models does not produce promising results. In this paper, extension options, which have the property of options on futures, were transformed into regular European options before the application of the Black-Scholes model (BSM). The efficient market hypothesis, which justifies the parity of the performance of a long-term charter to that of repetitive short-term charters, worked as the basis for the transformation. The option values determined by the BSM were compared with actual realized values. Additionally, the artificial neural networks (ANN) was employed to derive the option values. This study is meaningful as the first-time application of both the closed-form solution and the ANN to the valuation of physical freight options. The research results can contribute to the quality of chartering decisions. The results could also be used in quantifying credit risk, as extension options tend to be granted to charterers with more creditability.     

伊朗城市轨道交通工程市场分析和开拓策略

通过对伊朗城市轨道交通工程市场的分析和评估,结合中伊两国经贸合作发展和我国企业的优势,提出对伊朗城市轨道交通工程的市场开拓策略。     

关于国际海员劳务的几点思考

航运业随着经济全球化快速扩展,对海员的需求日益增长。文中通过对国际海员劳务的重要性、国际海员劳务环境以及我国海员劳务竞争力的分析,提出大力发展国际海员劳务输出对我国经济、社会发展的积极作用,并结合实际提出了提高我国海员劳务竞争力的建议。     

基于网络融合下通信运营企业的市场策略

随着新一代通信标准的建立,网络融合对通信产业的发展起很大作用,在现有通信网发展的基础上,通过价值网络的分析和规划,明确网络融合下通信运营企业的市场策略,从而为产业的健康发展提出建设性的指导方案。     

运输市场企业定制营销模式浅析

对于运输市场而言,消费者的逐渐成熟和多元化发展势必对其提出更高的要求,采用定制营销策略无疑是运输企业适应社会发展需要,顺应时代潮流的一项明智之举.     

我国航运企业发展现代物流的战略思考

世界经济一体化进程不断加快,一些国际航运公司实施全球承运人战略,纷纷抢占包括我国在内的世界物流服务市场。我国航运企业面临着如何对日益激烈的市场竞争局面。现就我国航运企业发展物流服务的必要性。开展物流服务的机遇与挑战以及对策等三个方面作系统的研讨。