基于分段单孔反演的隧址区多断层地应力分布特征

目前，针对具有多个原位地应力测试钻孔的隧址区初始地应力场反演，往往一次性将全部实测值用以计算值的回归反分析，没有考虑到隧道纵向长度远超其他方向且钻孔分布较远的特点，单个钻孔表征的临近区域地应力分布特征或反演精度被其余钻孔实测值“拉低”，导致整体反演结果容易陷入局部优解。依托拉林铁路桑珠岭隧道、叙毕铁路斑竹林隧道、沿江高速火山隧道、木寨岭公路隧道等工程，采用多元线性回归法结合最小二乘法寻优准则，分析了隧址区仅有单个钻孔反演精度较高的原因，提出了对具有多个钻孔的隧址区分段并分别进行单钻孔回归反演的新方法。在此基础上，重点讨论了木寨岭公路隧道断层破碎带区域地应力分布特征。结果表明：分段单孔反演较多孔反演进一步提高了反演精度；地应力的分布在断层前后呈现出先急剧增大后急剧减小的特征；除自重应力与埋深存在一定关联外，两项水平主应力随断层间距或厚度的增大突变性加剧；断层之间间距、断层倾角、断层厚度均是影响地应力方向偏转大小的重要因素，断层之间间距或断层倾角越小、断层越厚，地应力方向偏转越显著。     

考虑拥堵空间排队与溢出的道路网静态交通流分配

为刻画拥堵空间排队与溢出现象对交通流分配的影响，提出考虑拥堵空间排队与溢出的道路网静态交通流分配问题，并构建相关的求解算法，用于描述交通需求在起讫点移动过程中路网整体的宏观运行状态。首先，丰富和完善考虑拥堵空间排队与溢出的静态交通流分配的相关假设，提出次生瓶颈、拥堵干扰与渗透和分段化路段阻抗等基本概念和理论，来刻画拥堵交通瓶颈、拥堵空间排队等交通现象；其次，建立网络瓶颈识别算法和空间排队回溯算法，基于此构建考虑拥堵空间排队和溢出的增量分配算法，用于求解交通流分配的结果；最后，通过使用一个具有说明型的算例进行对比分析。研究结果表明：建立的瓶颈识别、排队回溯和增量分配算法可以识别路网中的瓶颈位置及其拥堵排队区域，并可计算得到各路段上的分段分配流量；与点排队只影响瓶颈路段的运行状况和均一的路段分配结果相比，可有效描述路网整体的宏观运行状态以及由于拥堵空间排队所导致的拥堵干扰与渗透现象；不同于“时间片”的伪动态交通流分配模型，新建算法的分配结果是“全时段”与“整体性”的路网宏观运行状态，包含了拥堵瓶颈的具体位置和空间排队的干扰与渗透情况；一般拥堵点排队模型和基于“时间片”的拥堵空间排队模型难以刻画拥堵干扰与渗透现象以及路网整体的宏观运行状态，故所建立的分配方法是对传统拥堵交通流分配的丰富和发展。     

Integrated models of land use and transportation for the autonomous vehicle revolution

ABSTRACT

The advent of the autonomous vehicle (AV) will affect not only the transportation system, but also future patterns of land development. Integrated land use and transportation models will be critical tools in assessing the path forward with this technology. Key questions with respect to land use impacts of AVs arise from potential changes in sensitivity to travel and reduced demand for parking. It is an open question whether AVs will induce urban sprawl, or whether spatial economies of agglomeration will mitigate any reductions in travel time sensitivity. The deployment of shared fleets of AVs would likely reduce parking demand, producing yet to be explored impacts on property development within existing urban footprints. We perform a critical assessment of currently operational models and their ability to represent the adoption of AVs. We identify the representation of time in such models as a vital component requiring additional development to model this new technology. Existing model applications have focused on the discrete addition of new infrastructure or policy at a fixed point in time, whereas AV adoption will occur incrementally through time. Stated adaptation surveys are recommended as tools to quantify preferences and develop relevant model inputs. It is argued that existing models that assume comparatively static equilibrium have been convenient in the past, but are insufficient to model technology adoption. In contrast, dynamic model frameworks lack sufficient structure to maintain reasonability under large perturbations from base conditions. The ongoing advancement of computing has allowed models to move away from being mechanistic aggregate tools, towards behaviourally rich depictions of individual persons and firms. However, much work remains to move from projections of existing conditions into the future, to the evolution of the spatial economy as it evolves through time in response to new technologies and exogenous stresses. Principles from complex and evolutionary systems theory will be important in the development of models with the capacity to consider such dynamics.     

Online channel strategies under different offline channel power structures for the Belt and Road of China

ABSTRACT

This paper explores the online channel strategies adopted by Chinese manufacturers with regard to the Belt and Road. It also investigates the effect of offline channel power structures and maritime transportation costs on online channel mode selection and pricing strategies. The offline channel power structures are classified into three types, namely, Chinese manufacturer Stackelberg (MS) structure, vertical Nash (VN) structure, and foreign retailer Stackelberg (RS) structure. Furthermore, a game model is developed among the Chinese manufacturer, foreign retailer, and cross-border e-tailer to investigate the interactions among offline channel power structures, maritime transportation costs, and Chinese manufacturers’ online channel mode selection. The results show that Chinese manufacturers’ preferences for the online agency selling mode increases correspondingly with the decrease in their market position and bargaining power. Moreover, foreign retailers can obtain higher profits in the online agency selling mode under the VN structure. However, the level of profit for foreign retailers depends on the intensity of their competition with cross-border e-tailers under the MS and RS structures. Finally, consumers in countries along the Belt and Road can obtain a higher surplus in the online agency selling mode under all of the structures.     

基于AHP-TOPSIS的山区低等级公路路面破损评价方法

以山区低等级公路路面为研究对象,依据不同种类路面的破损危害性不同,拟在公路路面评价中提出路面破损指数概念,对山区低等级公路路面破损程度进行综合评价。所用模型是利用层次分析法(AHP)对不同种类的路面损毁危害性进行赋权,并利用逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)计算山区低等级公路路面破损程度与最优情况的贴近度,进而将山区低等级公路路面破损情况转化成区间为[0,1]的路面破损指数,其中路面破损指数越大表示路面的破损程度越高。此模型方法简单,能够运用少量数据对山区低等级公路路面的破损程度进行定量评价,可为山区公路的养护工作提供更准确的数据参照。     

散货船舱口盖剩余强度

通过对散货船舱口盖极限强度的理论分析，采用了正交各向异性板及刚塑性模型进行了理论上的推导，并对7万t散货船的1号舱的舱口盖(两块对称滚动式)，进行了ILL66及IACS URS21(1998年版与上述ILL66的88议定书中载荷的量级相当)的外载荷的比较及线性和非线性的有限元分析。本文所采用的有限元的线性及弹塑性计算对实际的舱口盖进行评估的结果证明，IACS URS21(ILL66的88议定书)的标准比ILL66的标准有所提高。采用非线性有限元法是在初始设计阶段使用的可行方法。这些结果可供规范研制工作参考。     

船舶碰撞后的处理

从船舶碰撞责任的基础知识出发，结合运实务，指出了碰撞发生后的处理程序，对船长及船东在发生此类海事后的处理方法提供了参考，有一定的指导意义。     

海洋钻井的数据集成原理及实践

介绍将信息技术与传统石油工业相结合的DTS(Data Totalization System)数据集成系统。该系统集成了油田开发过程中钻井、完井、油藏测试等各个阶段的现场数据，形成了完善的钻完井信息管理系统。利用计算机和信息技术对数据进行收集、整理和分析；同时实时传回后方基地对现场远程传输回的数据进行处理，作出对钻井工程具有实际指导意义的决策方案，在公司总部实现对现场施工的远程监控、动态管理，并形成涵盖整个作业区域的钻完井数据库。在过去的两年里，DTS数据集成曾服务于QHD326—A26海底大位移井、中国西北石油局的TK431井。目前已经推广到渤海QHD和SZ36—1作业区及南海作业区。     

公路工程监理与国际惯例的差距探讨

通过对我国公路工程监理和国际惯例的比较，指出了我国公路工程监理机制与国际惯例的差距，并提出了解决问题的建议。