船舶绕避热带气旋安全-经济决策模型

为了同时对多个来源的热带气旋预报进行综合处理,对可供船舶选用的绕避方案从安全和经济效益两方面同时给予定量评价和分析,基于神经网络的多源热带气旋路径集成预报和未来风浪场确定技术、风险分析理论和模糊信息优化处理技术以及气象-经济决策理论等方面的最新研究成果,提出了一种可用于大洋中船舶绕避热带气旋方案选优的安全-经济决策模型。在对“天丽海”轮7个不同绕避热带气旋方案进行的模拟优选计算中,该模型能够根据决策者的具体要求,优选出效益最佳或效用最佳的绕航方案,得到的结论与多位具有丰富绕避热带气旋经验的船长分析的最佳绕航方案基本一致。     

西太平洋航线温带爆发性气旋活动与天气海况分析

根据观测是统计和天气海洋资料,分析了西太平洋航线温带爆发性气旋活动的气修学特征,并结合个例考查了爆发性气旋的天气与海况特点。结果表明爆发性气旋具有不同于一般气旋活动的规律和天气海况特征,认识它们有助于减少或避免海损事故的发生。     

船舶—热带气旋动态标绘系统

为解决目前航运企业和船舶驾驶人员采用的在“台风位置标示图”上标绘热带气旋和船舶位置的作业方式工作量较大、繁琐、效率低下的问题,提出基于电子海图显示与信息系统(ECDIS)的船舶-热带气旋动态显示标绘系统.该系统应用API、V3和JS等计算机技术,并使用准确率较高的中、日、美三国气象预报机构提供的热带气旋路径预报数据,可将热带气旋的前期移动轨迹、当前位置、未来的移动路径和未来不同时刻的位置自动标绘在航行数据全面的ECDIS平台上;同时,可方便地进行船舶位置的标绘,便于企业船舶管理人员和船舶驾驶人员随时了解船舶与热带气旋在未来不同时刻的相对位置关系及变化.本系统的特点是动态、直观、实时、使用方便,可取代当前使用的传统的“台风位置标示图”,便于企业船舶管理人员和船舶驾驶人员依据本系统提供的信息,迅速、合理地制定绕避热带气旋的新航线,确保船舶绕避热带气旋的成功.     

近58年西北太平洋热带气旋频数和强度的变化特征研究

文章利用1950-2007年西北太平洋热带气旋（TC）资料,对热带气旋发生频数、强度、登陆频数和地点在季节、年际、年代际时间尺度上的变化规律进行了分析。分析结果表明：近58年西北太平洋热带气旋的发生频数总趋势是下降的,且强度在年代际变化上呈现出逐渐减弱的趋势。登陆热带气旋的年际和年代际变化与西北太平洋生成频数密切相关,对我国的影响主要为华南沿海、台湾及浙江以南的华东沿海地区。     

Propagation and origin of warm anomalies in the Angola Benguela upwelling system in 2001

Warmer than average sea surface temperatures were observed by the Tropical Rainfall Mission Microwave Imager in the Angola Benguela Current system in late austral summer 2001 and persisted for about three months. These coastal anomalies extended offshore by 1 to 4° longitude and were not due to local ocean atmosphere interaction or relaxation of the upwelling favorable southerly winds. Instead, they were remotely forced by ocean atmosphere interaction in the Tropical Atlantic. Satellite remote sensing and a linear ocean model suggest that relaxation of trade winds along the equator triggered Kelvin waves that crossed the basin within a month in early 2001. Westerly wind anomalies were also observed in December 2000 and January 2001 over most of the Tropical Atlantic contributing to a warm preconditioning due to an enhancement of the oceanic annual cycle. This led to abnormal sea level heights near equatorial Africa that propagated southwards along the coast towards the Angola Benguela Frontal zone. This process increased the seasonal penetration of warm and salty water of tropical origin into the Angola Benguela upwelling system.     

舰船防台风预警预报系统的研究

热带气旋是灾害性的天气系统,论文关于“舰船防台风预警预报系统”的研究,能在实时卫星云图的基础上,对热带气旋进行精确定位,预报其短时路径和强度,并利用系统提供的其他数据库资料,为舰船优选防台锚地,最大限度地利用锚地的天然屏障,提高防台的安全性和有效性。     

Effect of wave boundary layer on sea-to-air dimethylsulfide transfer velocity during typhoon passage

A full-spectral third-generation ocean wind–wave model (Wavewatch-III) implemented in the South China Sea is used to investigate the effects of the wave boundary layer on the drag coefficient and the sea-to-air transfer velocity of dimethylsulfide (DMS) during passage of Typhoon Wukong (September 5–11, 2000) with a maximum sustained wind speed of 38 m s^− 1. The model is driven by the reanalyzed surface winds (1° × 1°, four times daily) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. It is found that the wave boundary layer evidently enhances (16.5%) the drag coefficient (in turn increases the momentum flux across the air–sea interface), and reduces (13.1%) the sea-to-air DMS transfer velocity (in turn decreases the sea-to-air DMS flux). This indicates the possibility of important roles of wave boundary layer in atmospheric DMS contents and global climate system.     

对影响船舶航行安全的爆发性气旋的诊断分析

对2个典型的黄—东海入海气旋进行了诊断分析和数值实验，考查了个例在不同阶段各动力—热力因子的空间和水平分布特征以及水汽的水平和垂直输送的演变过程。结果表明，在冷季大气斜压背景场产生的强温度平流和由积云对流活动产生的大量凝结潜热释放等因子的共同作用下，入海气旋变成有利的特定空间结构、地面地转相对涡度急剧增加时，气旋便出现爆发性发展。爆发性发展时凝结潜热释放需要的大量水汽主要来源于气旋入海过程中，当地海—气相互作用过程所积累的水汽起主导作用，它通过影响后续的凝结潜热释放在一定程度上制约了入海气旋是否会发展为爆发性气旋。这对指导航海者深入认识气旋的爆发性发展具有重要意义。     

Journal of Marine Science and Application 2014 Sum. Contents

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Developing a Sustainable Community-Based Aquaculture Plan for the Lagoon of CuyutlÀn through a Public Awareness and Involvement Process

This study presents evidence from the Cuyutlàn lagoon, which demonstrates that aquaculture can be socially acceptable, economically viable and environmentally friendly when consideration is first taken of the local circumstances and environment. This evidence was obtained through a user survey, which asked key questions of the local fishing community. These questions aimed to determine the desires and needs of the local community in the context of the local environment. The results from this survey of 56% of the fishing community were presented. The wishes of the fishing community are discussed and a compromise suggested for a sustainable aquaculture for the Cuyutlàn lagoon.