基于改进熵权与灰色模糊理论的城市轨道交通PPP项目风险评价研究

针对城市轨道交通PPP项目风险繁多复杂等特点,为保障PPP项目的成功实施,提出基于改进熵权灰色模糊理论的风险评价方法。首先,考虑风险动态性特征,采用Delphi法对城市轨道交通PPP项目全生命周期风险按阶段进行有效识别,建立相应的风险指标体系; 其次,通过灰色聚类与模糊综合评判法相结合构建城市轨道交通PPP项目风险评价模型,利用灰色白化权函数实现风险指标信息的透明化,借助模糊理论计算风险综合评价值,判断项目风险等级,并采用改进熵权法与层次分析法相结合的方法确定主客观权重; 最后,将模型应用于青岛地铁3号线实际案例中。研究结果表明该项目风险等级为“中等”,评价模型具有合理性与有效性,同时提出相应的风险应对措施。     

基于PPP模式的综合管廊工程核心驱动力研究

核心驱动力是促使综合管廊工程快速推进的重要动力,为有效认识综合管廊工程核心驱动力结构及其作用机制,从供应链协同的视角出发,构建包含基于实现力的基础层、基于协同力的核心层以及表现层的综合管廊工程核心驱动力模型。结合已有研究和实地调研列出核心驱动力影响因素,通过因子分析法对核心驱动力影响因素进行解释和概括。因子分析法对理论模型的实证研究表明： 综合管廊工程的核心驱动力由运营管理和收益能力、规划建设期各方协同力、工程与材料管理能力、战略布局及技术支撑力、融资业务能力、政府关系协同力、风险应对能力、资本运作能力、资金供应能力、运营期各方协同力和政府调控能力等11个关键能力构成,验证了理论模型的科学性。研究结果表明： 协同力对推进综合管廊工程具有核心驱动作用,在保证实现力的前提下,着重培育核心驱动力能够解决综合管廊工程推进速度迟缓等问题。     

Delivering trusting partnerships for route bus services: A Melbourne case study

The Thredbo Conference series has developed the idea of negotiated performance-based contracts as effective public transport service delivery mechanisms, with trusting partnerships between authority and operators providing an environment likely to maximise the performance of this delivery mode. However, there is a distinct lack of relevant case study material on trusting partnerships in public transport to affirm this proposition. This paper seeks to redress the balance. It outlines the system development directions that are being implemented for bus services in Melbourne, Australia, and the way that a broad-based constituency has been built to support those directions. It then illustrates the extension of the tactical trusting partnership approach between purchaser and provider to the level of the individual operator contract, showing how this should create a flexible yet disciplined environment to manage and cope with change and growth. The broad nature of the new contracts is summarised and, building on the findings from Thredbo 9, processes that are being implemented to manage the on-going relationship between purchaser and providers are outlined. Finally, the paper argues for extending KPIs beyond the operator to encompass the authority/regulator and the partnership of authority/operator, to extend performance pressures beyond the operator and recognise the interdependence of partners in a true partnership.     

Risk pricing inefficiency in public–private partnerships*

There is a drive towards delivering and operating public infrastructure through public–private partnership (PPP) rather than traditional public procurement. The assessment of the value for money achieved by the two alternative approaches rests in the cost of financing and their efficiency in delivery and operation. This paper focuses on the cost of financing, in particular the cost associated with transferring risk from the public to private sphere. If capital markets were efficient and complete, the cost of public (government) and private financing should be the same, with the relative delivery and operational efficiency remaining as the primary determinant of value-for-money. Evidence suggests, however, that the risk transfer to a PPP entails an inefficient risk pricing premium which goes beyond the direct cost of financing. We argue that a high price for PPPs results from large risk transfers, risk treatment within the private sector, and uncertainty around the past and future performance of public–private consortia. The corollary is that the efficiency gains from a PPP must be much higher than commonly expected to deliver a greater value for the money than under a traditional approach.     

Is the bus transport contracting system in South Africa leading to trusting relationships between contracted parties? An analysis of funding issues and the impact on relations between government and operators

The 1996 South African White Paper on National Transport policy provided the guidelines for the restructuring of the commuter bus industry. The restructuring objectives were based on improving the competitiveness of and service levels within the industry through a competitive tendering regime, the selective implementation of negotiated contracts and the general transformation of the industry to also include improved transparency in the funding arrangements between government and operators.In order to set the context of the paper, a brief overview is provided of the progress made with policy implementation and the background to funding issues that are experienced in the bus transport sector. To gauge the impact of the funding issues on the relationship between government and operators, a survey of the largest contracted operators was undertaken to determine, amongst other, how these funding issues have potentially impacted on trusting relationships between contracted parties.     

Does the political and economic context influence the success of a transport project? An analysis of transport public-private partnerships

The construction and provision of infrastructure services such as transport nowadays is often based on a partnership between three main actors: public sector, private sector and multilateral lenders, under a framework of Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs). This type of partnership has been employed in a wide range of projects in the transport sector and in various contexts in developing and developed countries. Given this observation, the objective of this paper is to examine how countries’ economic and political characteristics contribute to the success of PPPs in transport investments. Special focus in the analysis is given to how the perception of corruption and democratic accountability may influence the success of a PPP project in different transport sectors. We examine a database with 856 transport PPP projects using a generalized linear model in the form of a logit model in order to evaluate the transport database covering data from 72 countries, classified in six regions. The study highlights the importance of national experience. Not only does national macroeconomic experience appear to have a relevant role, but so also does its past experience (either positive or negative) of transport PPP projects. An interesting finding from the analysis is the importance of the rest of the world’s perception of a country’s level of corruption and democratic accountability for the final outcome of a PPP project.     

Goal achievement with trusting partnerships at the tactical level

Recent Thredbo Conferences have begun to explore the importance of the relationship between public transport service purchaser and provider in the development of successful public transport services. However, practical examples to test the trusting partnership model are rare. Bus service planning and delivery in Melbourne, Australia, has pioneered the trusting partnership approach, from agreement about desirable service standards and requisite operator qualifications (at the Tactical level) to detailed service delivery contracts. New negotiated performance-based metropolitan bus contracts commenced in January 2009, embodying principles discussed in previous Thredbo Conferences. This paper reports on the Tactical planning process that agreed service standards and the subsequent contract negotiation process, reflecting a trusting partnership between purchaser and provider, while remaining transparent and accountable and maintaining performance pressure on the provider. It shows how patronage growth rates have increased dramatically and identifies areas where further enhancements should be explored in the contracting area.     

基于PPP融资模式的轨道交通建设资金匡算

分析了城市轨道交通建设规模匡算方法,探讨了PPP融资模式对城市轨道交通建设及运营的影响,建立了PPP融资模式与轨道交通建设规模匡算的关系模型。该模型已在郑州市轨道交通建设规划编制过程中得到应用,并在应用结果中提出了丰富PPP的回报方式以及减轻政府出资压力的建议。     

政府如何支持公私合营模式发展——20个欧洲国家PPP的政府支持情况评估比较

本文从制度的视角构建一个政府支持公私合营模式(Public Private Partnership,PPP)程度的指数——PPP政府支持指数(PPP Governmental Support Index,GSI)——以评估政府规定的制度体系对在交通基础设施和其他行业引入和推广PPP具有何种程度的促进或阻碍作用。首先,基于大量文献综述界定PPP政府支持指数的要素,包括关于PPP的政策和政治承诺、法律和监管框架,以及精心设计的PPP支持安排。其次,计算20个欧洲国家的PPP政府支持指数,将其分类并比较各国政府对基础设施领域PPP支持程度的异同。再次,探讨20个欧洲国家的制度指数得分与基础设施领域PPP行为的潜在联系。最后,讨论当前的PPP政府支持指数的潜力、实用性以及方法局限性,并详细阐述如何将该指数用于加强交通或其他领域PPP的比较研究中。