Mobility, social exclusion and well-being: Exploring the links

Building on a growing research foundation, transport policy makers have begun to associate the ability to be mobile with having a role in the facilitation of social inclusion. However, the further connection to well-being is not as well understood. This paper explores the association between a person’s travel patterns, their risk of social exclusion and self-assessed well-being. Key influences on social exclusion are discussed, with trip making emerging as a significant influence. Trip making is not a significant direct influence on well-being but does exercise an indirect influence through the impact on risk of social exclusion. The modelling process enables a value for additional trips to be estimated, the value being about four times the values derived from conventional generated traffic approaches. Similar high values are found in separate metropolitan and regional case studies, confirming the significance of the results.     

不同类型交通需求管理实践与探索——以深圳市为例

交通需求管理是大城市交通政策的重要组成部分,提出了基于实施难易影响因素的交通需求管理措施分类,总结了深圳从20世纪90年代中期开始相继实施的一系列相对较易实施的交通需求管理措施情况,分析展望需进一步考虑的交通需求管理措施。针对交通拥挤收费这一较难及重大的需求管理措施,回顾了深圳探索性研究拥挤收费方案,包括交通拥挤收费总体调控目标、收费区域范围、收费模式与时段、收费系统技术选型等,分析了实施面临的困难,并提出了实施突破与替代的建议。     

随机利率下的外汇欧式期权定价

在随机利率情况下,利用鞅方法研究了外汇欧式期权的定价问题,得到了欧式期权(看涨和看跌)价格的解析表达式,及其评价关系.文中考虑了期权的对冲问题及本国和外国利率波动的非零相关性,本国和外国利率波动对汇率波动的影响.     

基于累积前景理论的城际列车分时定价研究

城际客流具有时段分布不均衡特点,表现为高峰时段一票难求而低峰时段客座率低。为均衡客流、提高城际高铁收益,选取客运通道内不同时段车次进行差别定价。考虑旅客选择行为的差异性和有限理性,采用潜在类别分析对旅客进行分类,选取票价和时段价值两个影响因素, 建立双参照点的旅客平行车次产品效用模型,以累积前景值刻画异质旅客对平行车次的出行效用。基于累积前景值构建以铁路企业收益最大,旅客广义出行费用最小的分时定价双层规划模型,设计基于灵敏度分析的启发式算法求解。最后以南宁-北海为例对高峰、非高峰时段平行列车进行实例分析,结果表明,本文提出的分时定价方法能提升收益约2.5%,且高峰、非高峰时段的客流更加均衡。     

Is the curb 80% full or 20% empty? Assessing the impacts of San Francisco’s parking pricing experiment

The city of San Francisco is undertaking a large-scale controlled parking pricing experiment. San Francisco has adopted a performance goal of 60–80% occupancy for its metered parking. The goal represents an heuristic performance measure intended to reduce double parking and cruising for parking, and improve the driver experience; it follows a wave of academic and policy literature that calls for adjusting on-street parking prices to achieve similar occupancy targets. In this paper, we evaluate the relationship between occupancy rules and metrics of direct policy interest, such as the probability of finding a parking space and the amount of cruising. We show how cruising and arrival rates can be simulated or estimated from hourly occupancy data. Further, we evaluate the impacts of the first two years of the San Francisco program, and conclude that rate changes have helped achieve the City’s occupancy goal and reduced cruising by 50%.     

The impact of a congestion pricing exemption on the demand for new energy efficient vehicles in Stockholm

As governments seek to transition to more efficient vehicle fleets, one strategy has been to incentivize ‘green’ vehicle choice by exempting some of these vehicles from road user charges. As an example, to stimulate sales of energy efficient vehicles (EEVs) in Sweden, some of these automobiles were exempted from Stockholm’s congestion tax. In this paper the effect this policy had on the demand for new, privately-owned, exempt EEVs is assessed by first estimating a model of vehicle choice and then by applying this model to simulate vehicle alternative market shares under different policy scenarios. The database used to calibrate the model includes owner-specific demographics merged with vehicle registry data for all new private vehicles registered in Stockholm County during 2008. Characteristics of individuals with a higher propensity to purchase an exempt EEV were identified. The most significant factors included intra-cordon residency (positive), distance from home to the CBD (negative), and commuting across the cordon (positive). By calculating vehicle shares from the vehicle choice model and then comparing these estimates to a simulated scenario where the congestion tax exemption was inactive, the exemption was estimated to have substantially increased the share of newly purchased, private, exempt EEVs in Stockholm by 1.8% (±0.3%; 95% C.I.) to a total share of 18.8%. This amounts to an estimated 10.7% increase in private, exempt EEV purchases during 2008, i.e., 519 privately owned, exempt EEVs.     

Options for reducing noise from roads and railway lines

The fundamental noise generation mechanisms of road and rail vehicles are discussed with attention to noise abatement measures. Based on an evaluation of publicly available tire noise data and the European road traffic noise emission model CNOSSOS, it is shown that on the road side there is a significant noise reduction potential in the usage of low-noise tires. From a three months measurement campaign a noise model was derived to predict the maximal sound pressure level of heavy duty vehicles during a pass-by in 7.5 m distance with the parameters vehicle speed and number of axles. With help of recently published information about external costs caused by heavy duty vehicles and the noise prediction tool, a model was developed to derive a money equivalent that can be used as a bonus/malus in a heavy duty vehicle fee. As a measure at the infrastructure, the installation of low-noise pavements is an effective, durable and economically attractive measure. Recent experiences with different technologies from all over the world are compiled and evaluated. On the rail side, an overview of the possible noise reduction strategies is given, followed by a discussion of the current policy and legislation in the EU and on the national level of different European countries.     

Is equilibrium in transport pure Nash,mixed or Stochastic?

The classical theory of transport equilibrium is based on the Wardrop’s first principle that describes a Nash User Equilibrium (UE), where in no driver can unilaterally change routes to improve his/her travel times. A growing number of economic laboratory experiments aiming at testing Nash-Wardrop equilibrium have shown that the Pure Strategy Nash Equilibrium (PSNE) is not able to explain the observed strategic choices well. In addition even though Mixed Strategy Nash Equilibrium (MSNE) has been found to fit better the observed aggregate choices, it does not explain the variance in choices well. This study analyses choices made by users in three different experiments involving strategic interactions in endogenous congestion to evaluate equilibrium prediction. We compare the predictions of the PSNE, MSNE and Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE). In SUE, the observed variations in choices are assumed to be due to perception errors. The study proposes a method to iteratively estimate SUE models on choice data with strategic interactions. Among the three sets of experimental data the SUE approach was found to accurately predict the average choices, as well as the variances in choices. The fact that the SUE model was found to accurately predict variances in choices, suggests its applicability for transport equilibrium models that attempt to evaluate reliability in transportation systems. This finding is fundamental in the effort to determining a behaviourally consistent paradigm to model equilibrium in transport networks. The study also finds that Fechner error which is the inverse of the scale parameter in the SUE model is affected by the group sizes and the complexity of the cost function. In fact, the larger group sizes and complexity of cost functions increased the variability in choices. Finally, from an experimental design standpoint we show that it is not possible to estimate a noise parameter associate to Fechner error in the case when the choices are equally probable.     

Demandeur pays: The EU and funding improvements in South Asian ship recycling practices

Questionable practices for dismantling end-of-life ships or ‘ship recycling’ on South Asian countries’ shores have elicited unease given their dominance of this unevenly regulated global industry. International efforts to establish enforceable regulations have met with limited success so far, and yet this limited success may be further eroded as different interests promote their own preferred arrangements—or ignore them altogether. This paper focuses on narrowing differences between the European Union and South Asian ship recycling nations over regulating this trade by sequentially detailing its economic rationales, environmental regimes and relevant sustainability principles. These tasks performed, I deductively build a case for an aid-based, ‘demandeur pays’ approach to meaningfully address this impasse after considering other options to fund improved ship recycling practices in South Asia.     

Using the revenues from congestion pricing

The economic theory behind congestion pricing relies on using the revenues to help compensate highway users. But can practical methods of using revenues come close to achieving this compensation, and still have salient appeal to important political groups? This paper investigates the possibilities for designing a package of revenue uses that can achieve these twin goals. The suggested approach returns two-thirds of the revenues to travelers through travel allowances and tax reductions, and uses the rest to improve transportation throughout the area, including affected business centers. By replacing regressive sales and fuel taxes, this approach offsets the tendency of the prices alone to have a regressive distributional impact. By lowering taxes, funding new highways, improving transit, and upgrading business centers, the package provides inducements for support from several key interest groups. The potential amounts of money involved are discussed using nationwide data, and in more detail using a case study of ubiquitous facility pricing throughout the Los Angeles region. Illustrative calculations of the effects on various individuals confirm that such a package can create net benefits for a wide spectrum of people and interest groups.