基于元胞自动机的城市道路仿真系统

为解决实时交通仿真系统对计算效率的要求，本文提出一种针对交通信号控制下城市道路路段的元胞自动机模型。在模型中采取了适合城市交通特点的元胞空间划分和时间步长方案以及元胞更新规则。本文还给出基于此模型的一个小型仿真系统的软件体系结构。另外，本模型还能反应出驾驶员的进取性（aggressiveness）的状况，并对驾驶员存不同进取性下对变通的影响做了研究。通过现场采集的交通数据和CORSIM仿真平行的对比试验表明本文提出的模型在路段平均速度意义下与实际变通数据符合较好，并具有较高的运行效率。     

A Comparative Study of Three Multivariate Short-Term Freeway Traffic Flow Forecasting Methods With Missing Data

Short-term traffic flow forecasting is a critical function in advanced traffic management systems (ATMS) and advanced traveler information systems (ATIS). Accurate forecasting results are useful to indicate future traffic conditions and assist traffic managers in seeking solutions to congestion problems on urban freeways and surface streets. There is new research interest in short-term traffic flow forecasting due to recent developments in intelligent transportation systems (ITS) technologies. Previous research involves technologies in multiple areas, and a significant number of forecasting methods exist in the literature. However, most studies used univariate forecasting methods, and they have limited forecasting abilities when part of the data is missing or erroneous. While the historical average (HA) method is often applied to deal with this issue, the forecasting accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This article makes use of the spatial relationship of traffic flow at nearby locations and builds up two multivariate forecasting approaches: the vector autoregression (VAR) and the general regression neural network (GRNN) based forecasting models. Traffic data collected from U.S. Highway 290 in Houston, TX, were used to test the model performance. Comparison of performances of the three models (HA, VAR, and GRNN) in different missing ratios and forecasting time intervals indicates that the accuracy of the VAR model is more sensitive to the missing ratio, while on average the GRNN model gives more robust and accurate forecasting with missing data, particularly when the missing data ratio is high.     

北京奥运智能交通管理系统建设与应用

奥运交通组织与安全保障,对北京奥运会成功举行起着至关重要的作用。在保证城市交通正常运行的同时,完成繁重、复杂、高标准的奥运交通组织,必须拥有一个功能强大的技术支撑系统——奥运智能交通管理系统。本文介绍了北京奥运智能交通系统的建设与应用情况。     

基于TDM的出租车供需调控方案研究

交通需求管理（TDM）是能从根本上解决城市交通问题的策略,具有现实的意义。针对成都市出租车供需现状,运用系统的思想对各供需调控方案进行评价比选,分析交通需求管理的必要性并提出针对出租车的交通需求管理的具体措施,可为解决出租车的供需矛盾提供参考。     

社区卫生服务信息管理系统的设计与实现

本文从系统设计和实现的角度阐述了如何把开展社区卫生服务同计算机管理相结合 ,为社区卫生服务信息管理提供了一种模式和解决方案。     

成都市道路交通安全分级规划方法

交通安全管理是个多层次的分级管理系统与层次化行为综合体,每一级都是个完整的系统,都有自己的控制目标和特点,而国内外交通安全管理规划往往忽视这一点,造成对策普遍存在非完美性、非灵活性和强制性等缺点。根据系统的等级性、层次性等机理,采用“物理-事理-人理”系统方法,将交通安全系统划分为“四维”体系：时间维、空间维、功能维与行为维。基于此划分,按照交通安全规划、设计、管理、维护与评价以及交通事故预防、交通安全保障、交通事故救援与交通安全管理评价两条主线对交通安全进行分级规划,并以成都市交通安全为对象进行分级规划方案设计,期望以此方法来实现交通安全有序化管理与有效管理。     

Transient design waves for green-water loading on bulk carriers

The wave surface profiles associated with extreme relative motion between a slender stationary vessel and the adjacent wave surface are investigated for long-crested head seas. The methodology is based upon an established statistical relationship for a Gaussian random process which indi-cates that in the vicinity of an extreme event the most probable shape of the time history approaches that of the autocorrelation function. Attention is given to the relative motion at a longitudinal position which is representative of the No. 1 hatch cover location on a bulk carrier. Second-order corrections to the wave surface profiles are used to provide estimates of nonlinear relative motions. It is shown that extreme relative motion at the hatch cover location is associated with the vessel encountering a steep-fronted wave with pronounced asymmetry in the horizontal and vertical directions. In order to evaluate the exceedence probabilities, it is hypothesized that the peaks of the nonlinear relative motions are closely correlated with the peaks of an underlying linear process. The overall methodology is applied to an investigation of relative motion exceedence probabilities for vessel lengths of 250 m and 300 m over a range of survival seastates. Received: July, 1999 / Accepted: November, 1999     

我国航运企业发展现代物流的战略思考

世界经济一体化进程不断加快,一些国际航运公司实施全球承运人战略,纷纷抢占包括我国在内的世界物流服务市场。我国航运企业面临着如何对日益激烈的市场竞争局面。现就我国航运企业发展物流服务的必要性。开展物流服务的机遇与挑战以及对策等三个方面作系统的研讨。     

雅马哈摩托车的ABS装置(1)

介绍雅马哈ABS摩托车电路工作原理、液压系统结构与工作原理、ABs装置的维修方法及安全骑乘注意事项等。     

基于自适应神经模糊推理的交通状态判别方法

文章针对交通状态具有模糊性和主观性的特点,建立能够真实反映人对交通拥塞程度感觉的自适应-神经模糊推理系统,使具有变化连续的交通流参数模糊化处理,实现了道路交通状态的准确、快速辨别。