中小型集装箱码头装卸工艺模式分析

在分析中小型集装箱码头特性及发展趋势的基础上,分专用集装箱码头、多用途码头、综合性码头三类来研究装卸工艺的适应性,推荐了几种适合中小型集装箱码头特点的、发展前景较好的装卸工艺模式。     

Quasisteady theory for the hydrodynamic forces on a circular cylinder undergoing vortex-induced vibration

Vortex-induced vibrations of a rigid circular cylinder were studied by constructing a theory based on a wake oscillator model under quasisteady approximations, thereby evaluating vortex-induced hydrodynamic forces acting on the cylinder. A lock-in limit line representing the boundary for the occurrence of frequency lock-in was also theoretically derived. Hydrodynamic forces in forced oscillation problems estimated by the theory were compared with measured ones. Although some discrepancies were found, particularly in cases with high-frequency oscillations, good agreement was achieved in most cases. Accordingly, we conclude that the present theory captures well real phenomena in the wake downstream of a cylinder subjected to a flow.     

Water entry of a bow-flare ship section with roll angle

The two-dimensional water entry of a bow-flare ship section with constant roll angle, or heel angle, was studied by using a boundary element method. The fully nonlinear free surface conditions and exact body boundary conditions were satisfied. Nonviscous flow separation from the knuckles of the section or from the curved bottom could be simulated. The numerical calculations were compared with existing experimental results. First, the effects of roll angle were investigated and then the characteristics associated with large roll angles were examined in particular. The evolution of the free surfaces and the pressure distributions on the section surface are illustrated and the influence of nonviscous flow separation from the leeward section surface is discussed.     

舰船中央冷却系统管路流动仿真分析研究

舰船中央冷却系统是一个大型的、复杂的流体网络系统.采用流体系统仿真软件FLOWMASTER对舰船中央冷却系统建立仿真模型,进行稳态和动态工况的计算.通过稳态工况计算验证舰船中央冷却系统设计的合理性,并在此基础上模拟变工况下中央冷却系统管路参数的动态变化特性.仿真模型计算了一些实船调试中可能出现的情况,为实船中央冷却系统的调试指明了方向,确保高效、可靠、顺利地完成调试工作.     

城市群客流生成预测精度控制模型研究

城市群客流生成预测是城市群轨道交通规划中客流预测的主要组成部分,其预测精度将直接影响轨道交通客流预测精度,进而影响轨道交通规划的合理性.在分析城市群客流生成特点的基础上,提出客流生成阶段预测精度控制分为小区划分精度控制、预测方法选择、建模精度控制及模型计算结果调整4个阶段的思路;详细论述后2个阶段的精度控制内容,在模型计算结果调整中提出区域对外交通调整、空间调整、发生总量平衡调整及发生吸引平衡调整4个调整内容,并建立调整模型.     

线路客流预测分析与运营组织设计

从运营需要出发,提出客流预测的年限和内容;通过对客流量级的阐述,分析客流预测三级数据,确定运营的规模;根据OD(起讫点)客流分析来研究行车交路,做出满载率和拥挤度的评价;最终确定车辆编组与行车密度的合理组合,形成系统全面的技术方案,使客流预测更好地为运营组织服务.     

基于ARIMA的交通流量短时预测

采用AKIMA方法进行交通流量趋势预测．建模是利用现场调查得到的非平稳时间序列进行数据处理、建模．并根据AIC准则进行模型定阶,最后通过实测数据进行验证,结果表明。该ARIMA模型能够获得较好的中短期预测精度,因而可用于动态交通信号控制。     

高速公路动态交通流Elman神经网络模型

为了提高高速公路交通流建模的精度,分析了离散的高速公路动态交通流数学模型,基于Elman网络原理,建立了回归神经网络交通流模型。回归神经网络的输入层、上下文层、隐含层和输出层的节点数目分别选为8、30、30和2,采用Levenberg-Marquardt算法对回归神经网络进行训练,并对一条5路段的高速公路进行仿真。结果表明:回归神经网络平均相对误差为8.683 7×10-5,最大相对误差为4.237 1×10-4,与BP神经网络和RBF神经网络相比较,Elman回归神经网络能更好地逼近交通流数学模型,真实地描述交通流基本特性,能准确地建立动态交通流模型,适应交通状况的变化。     

Development of railway station choice models to improve the representation of station catchments in rail demand models

ABSTRACT

This paper describes the development of railway station choice models suitable for defining probabilistic station catchments. These catchments can then be incorporated into the aggregate demand models typically used to forecast demand for new rail stations. Revealed preference passenger survey data obtained from the Welsh and Scottish Governments was used for model calibration. Techniques were developed to identify trip origins and destinations from incomplete address information and to automatically validate reported trips. A bespoke trip planner was used to derive mode-specific station access variables and train leg measures. The results from a number of multinomial logit and random parameter (mixed) logit models are presented and their predictive performance assessed. The models were found to have substantially superior predictive accuracy compared to the base model (which assumes the nearest station has a probability of one), indicating that their incorporation into passenger demand forecasting methods has the potential to significantly improve model predictive performance.     

叙泸段河道非恒定流作用下水力参数的变化

金沙江与岷江干支流上水电站调峰发电下泄非恒定流引起下游叙泸段河道水流条件显著变化。结合一维非恒定流数学模型和实测资料分析研究叙泸段河道内代表性非恒定流传播过程及其造成水力参数相对于概化恒定流条件时的变化情况。结果表明:叙泸段河道内典型非恒定流波长为218 km,传播速度3 m/s;随着传播距离增加波衰减幅度减小,波形变得光滑;当宜宾水位处于波峰时,下游沿程流量呈现递减趋势,波谷则正好相反;相对于恒定流条件,其流量变化范围为0~730 m3/s,水位抬升0.5~2 m;断面平均流速变化在-0.5~0.2 m/s,比降变化范围为-0.2‰~0.2‰,比降最大值为1.38‰。