Variability of the Bohai Sea circulation based on model calculations

The circulation and the hydrography of the Bohai Sea are simulated with the Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM). The model is three-dimensional, prognostic baroclinic and has a resolution of 5 min in latitude and longitude and 10 layers in the vertical. It is initialised and forced with the five main tidal constituents, temperature and salinity distributions taken from the Levitus database, monthly mean river run-off values and European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) re-analysed data of air pressure, wind stress and of those parameters relevant for the calculation of heat fluxes. The simulation period covers 14 years from 1980 to 1993 due to the availability of the time-dependent ECMWF forcing.The results are analysed by means of time series and EOFs focussing on the interpretation of fluctuations with periods above the tidal cycle. Furthermore, tracer simulations are carried out and turnover times are calculated in order to evaluate the importance of these fluctuations on the renewal and transport of water masses in the Bohai Sea.One of the major outcomes of the investigation is the overall dominance of the annual cycle in all hydrographic parameters and the importance of stochastic weather fluctuations on the transport of water masses in the Bohai Sea.     

穿浪双体船兴波阻力研究

对穿浪双体船（WavePiereingCatamaran,简称WPC）兴波阻力理论计算方法进行了研究,在此基础上对一艘穿浪双体船模型的兴波阻力进行了理论计算,并将理论计算结果与模型试验结果、25°系列阻力图谱计算结果进行比较,探讨了片体修长系数、片体间距对WPC兴波阻力影响的规律。     

Large deformation coupled analysis of embedded pipeline – Soil lateral interaction

Subsea pipelines buried in the seabed may undergo large lateral displacement under environmental, operational, and accidental loads at different interaction rates and hence different drainage conditions. The undrained shear strength is commonly used in practice to assess the pipe-soil interaction assuming a sufficiently high displacement rate. This approach neglects consolidation effects and the rate-dependent response of the soil and may significantly underestimates the lateral resistance for a pipeline moving slowly relative to the ground. In this study, a coupled large deformation finite element (LDFE) framework is developed via a remeshing and interpolation technique with small strain (RITSS). A Modified Cam-Clay (MCC) model with efficient numerical integration is used. The proposed coupled LDFE framework is verified against selected physical model tests. Effects of the interaction rate and hence drainage condition on the p-y curve, excess pore pressure generation and dissipation, and failure mechanisms are discussed. An empirical relationship between the ultimate resistance and the normalized velocity of the pipe (denoting the drainage condition) is proposed, which may be applied for the integrity and safety analysis of buried pipes in landslide or fault-crossing regions.     

Three-dimensional equivalent static analysis for design of submerged floating tunnel

Stress evaluation of a submerged floating tunnel (SFT) is an issue important for determining the section dimensions required to resist environmental loads. However, the complex interaction between an SFT and surrounding fluid has confined most research on SFTs to longitudinal global time-history analyses based on Morison's equation [1]. Even though these analyses give sufficient information in the longitudinal direction, too little information about the circumferential direction compels an SFT section to be designed conservatively. This means that SFT design requires additional information on the structural behavior of the tunnel in the circumferential direction for efficient design. Accordingly, a supplementary approach by which to obtain structural responses in the circumferential direction is introduced in this paper. Upon consideration of the static responses equivalent to the dynamic behavior, three-dimensional (3-D) finite-element analyses of an SFT were performed by application of static loads corresponding to dynamic loads equivalent to those of wave, current and earthquake. The validation of each equivalent static load was supported by the results from comparison of the tension forces in mooring lines obtained using OrcaFlex [2] and ABAQUS [3]. These were used mainly for longitudinal dynamic analysis and 3-D stress evaluation, respectively, of an SFT. Based on the stresses obtained in the longitudinal and circumferential directions, the selection of suitable section dimensions for an SFT is considered.     

Semi-submersible wind turbine hull shape design for a favorable system response behavior

Floating offshore wind turbines are a novel technology, which has reached, with the first wind farm in operation, an advanced state of development. The question of how floating wind systems can be optimized to operate smoothly in harsh wind and wave conditions is the subject of the present work. An integrated optimization was conducted, where the hull shape of a semi-submersible, as well as the wind turbine controller were varied with the goal of finding a cost-efficient design, which does not respond to wind and wave excitations, resulting in small structural fatigue and extreme loads.The optimum design was found to have a remarkably low tower-base fatigue load response and small rotor fore-aft amplitudes. Further investigations showed that the reason for the good dynamic behavior is a particularly favorable response to first-order wave loads: The floating wind turbine rotates in pitch-direction about a point close to the rotor hub and the rotor fore-aft motion is almost unaffected by the wave excitation. As a result, the power production and the blade loads are not influenced by the waves. A comparable effect was so far known for Tension Leg Platforms but not for semi-submersible wind turbines. The methodology builds on a low-order simulation model, coupled to a parametric panel code model, a detailed viscous drag model and an individually tuned blade pitch controller. The results are confirmed by the higher-fidelity model FAST. A new indicator to express the optimal behavior through a single design criterion has been developed.     

Wave climate evolution in the Bay of Biscay over two decades

As a background, a review of long term evolution of wave climate in the North Atlantic is discussed. Most studies show that interannual evolutions in wave heights may be related to climatic factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation Index for example.Data of a waverider, consisting of a time series of 20 years in the Bay of Biscay (off Biscarosse, France), are analysed. Based on these data obtained from 1980, wave heights tend to decrease over the period. Also, interannual evolutions exist, particularly in the wave period. The fact that the annual wave periods at Biscarosse are found to vary more significantly than the annual wave heights led us to assume that it is an indirect effect of the evolution in the location of generating storms relative to the buoy. The relationships between wave parameters and climatic factors such as the North Atlantic Oscillation Index and the Garonne discharge have been derived: they show that the NAO index is negatively correlated with the river discharge and positively correlated with the wave period. This result is in agreement with the general climate scheme associated with NAO cycle proposed by Kushnir et al. [Kushnir, Y., Cardone, V.J., Cane, M., 1995. Link between Atlantic climate variability of surface wave height and sea level pressure. Proc. Fourth Int. Workshop on Wave Incasting and forecasting, Banff, AB, Canada, 59–64.]: NAO+ shifts storm tracks northward and dry weather are encountered in the southern part of Europe (conversely NAO− brings storm tracks and rainfall closer). Concerning wave heights, the lack of dependence on NAO index may be associated with compensation effects between wind intensity and storm tracks: wave energy is partly dissipated while reaching the Bay of Biscay in case of severe but distant storms (NAO+), which is not the case for storms generated nearer to the buoy and associated with moderate westerly winds (NOA−). However, the reason of the decrease in wave heights is not clear.     

Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in a coastal zone

A method is introduced to determine the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which provides a measure of the uncertainty of the model as a result of the uncertainties of the input parameters.In addition to a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method was applied to an oil spill that occurred in 1989 near Sines in the southwestern coast of Portugal. This model represented well the distinction between a wind driven part that remained offshore, and a tide driven part that went ashore. For both parts, the method defined two trajectory envelopes, one calculated exclusively with the wind fields, and the other using wind and tidal currents. In both cases reasonable approximation to the observed results was obtained.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling proved to give a better interpretation of the trajectories that were simulated by the oil spill model.     

Determinants of modal choice in freight transport

In the next few years, exciting developments in the field of freight transport are likely to occur. The Channel Tunnel will be perceived as giving railways much greater distance of operation, compared to the current train ferry to/from Great Britain. The further development of swap-body technology will allow easier modal transfer and the creation, in 1992, of a single market in Europe will transform the pattern of trade. All of these are likely to have significant impacts on modal choice, and hence modal split, in freight transport. Reappraisal by many firms of the modes of transport used is likely but will it result in a net transfer of freight from road to rail and, if so, to what extent? To answer such questions, an accurate and reliable method of predicting modal split is required. Research in the past has concentrated on the development of modal split models based on generalised costs. These fail to explain adequately the prevalence of road freight in the UK. From surveys of freight managers within industry, it is clear that models to date rely too heavily on the economic cost factor and too little on behavioural factors (Jeffs 1985). This paper derives from a recent study of freight transport modal choice from the standpoint of the transport decision-maker within the firm. It attempts to shed light on the actual parameters which should be incorporated into a modal split model. Many variables appear to exert an influence on modal choice decision-making process. However, it is possible to categorise them into six main groups, namely: customer-requirements; product-characteristics; company structure/organisation; government interventions; available transport facilities; and perceptions of the decision-maker him/herself. It is the interactions and inter-relationships between these which ultimately determine freight modal split. This study has shown that the relationship between the outcome of the transport decision process and the values of particular determinants of modal split is not straight-forward, due to the complexity and variety of interactions involved. Perhaps one of the main reasons for researchers' failure hitherto to develop a successful modal-split model has been the preoccupation with techniques that rely on the development of common metric (e.g. generalised cost), which has led to the exclusion of some important explanatory variables along quite different dimensions. Another important issue concerns the appropriate level of aggregation. In order not to reduce the explanatory power of the key variables, it is important to work at a disaggregate level, although this does make substantial demands on data. The use of factor analysis enables both the aggregation of information without loss of behavioural reality and the specification of variables in terms of a common metric. In conclusion, freight transport has usually been examined within too narrow a framework. It must be placed firmly within the context of the total industrial process. The demand for freight transport is directly influenced by the level, composition and geographical distribution of production and consumption activities. Freight flows are complex and so it is highly unlikely that a universal mode-choice model can ever be developed. Future research should, therefore, be directed towards developing partial models in response to specific needs of those involved in decision-taking in the freight sector.     

常见机车车轴实物对比试块的新应用

介绍利用目前现有的几种常见机车车轴实物对比试块,校验DF8B(滚抱)和DF7G型内燃机车分体轮、SS6B型电力机车整体轮、8K型机车轮对的车轴齿轮座镶入部横波探伤灵敏度的方法,以实现齿轮座镶入部和内侧卸荷槽的全面扫查。