Rollover risk prediction of heavy vehicles by reliability index and empirical modelling

This paper focuses on a combination of a reliability-based approach and an empirical modelling approach for rollover risk assessment of heavy vehicles. A reliability-based warning system is developed to alert the driver to a potential rollover before entering into a bend. The idea behind the proposed methodology is to estimate the rollover risk by the probability that the vehicle load transfer ratio (LTR) exceeds a critical threshold. Accordingly, a so-called reliability index may be used as a measure to assess the vehicle safe functioning. In the reliability method, computing the maximum of LTR requires to predict the vehicle dynamics over the bend which can be in some cases an intractable problem or time-consuming. With the aim of improving the reliability computation time, an empirical model is developed to substitute the vehicle dynamics and rollover models. This is done by using the SVM (Support Vector Machines) algorithm. The preliminary obtained results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.     

竞争性运输通道选择的博弈模型研究

通过对博弈论原理和竞争性运输通道选择问题的特性的研究,可以用博弈论的方法和原理比较和选择竞争性运输通道。在对竞争性运输通道的选择问题进行抽象的数学描述后,建立了相应的博弈论数学模型,并运用剔除严格劣战略的方法,对模型构造了可行的算法。同时对参与人集合的确定;纳什均衡的个数以及模型的拓展等问题做了进一步的分析.最后,通过与AHP的比较,提出了模型向贝叶斯博弈拓展的设想。为竞争性运输通道的选择优化问题提供了一种新的研究思路.     

应用网络流模型解决航班衔接问题

针对单枢纽机场航线结构的特点，以所需飞机数最少为目标，提出了一种描述航班衔接问题的图论模型及优化算法。首先将航班衔接问题转化为航班节的衔接问题，并建立一个描述航班节衔接问题的二部图，将航班衔接问题转化为二部图的最大匹配问题，然后由二部图生成一个具有单源汇网络特征的辅助图，利用Ford-Fulkerson算法求该网络的最大流，进而得到二部图的最大匹配，从而得到了一个需用飞机数最少的航班节衔接方案，为利用计算机自动编制并优化航班衔接方案提供了一种可行方法。并且通过调整过站时间上限，可以得出不同的航班衔接方案，为制订生产计划提供了必要的灵活性。     

物资企业经营计划优化模型研究

结合物资企业的经营特征,通过对经营计划制定过程的分析,给出了多品种、价格有折扣、市场需求随机、经营方式灵活的物资经营计划优化模型及求解方法,并对模型的适应性进行了讨论。因模型的建立与物资企业的实际情况相适应,所以对物资企业经营有较大的指导意义。     

考虑溢流费用的路径选择模型的条件研究

通过考虑路段的溢流费用,即路段交通负荷超过该路段交通负荷标准时所分配给用户的费用。路段交通负荷低于路段负荷标准时补贴给用户。建立一些约束条件,动态用户最优的路径选择条件和动态用户最优的溢流费用条件等。为进一步建立具有溢流费用的动态交通网络流的路径选择变分不等式模型及其算法研究打下基础。     

舰船风浪中航行及操纵系统

基于风浪中经验航法和理论航法相结合的观点；汲取耐波性等领域的研究成果，提出了一种实用的风浪航行操纵系统，集合3个子系统（海浪计算子系统，航向航速优选子系统，摇荡短期时历预子系统）的计算结果，合理组合，可满足风浪航行及转向时机，舰载直升机起降时同，海上补给及拖带航向航速选择等决策的需求。     

超细长三体船阻力计算研究

主船体为超细长体,两侧配置两个小侧体而形成的三体船是一种很有潜力的新船型,近年来已引起了广泛的关注。本文对三体船的阻力原理进行了分析,以“相当平板”假设为基础计算摩擦阻力,采用“1＋k”的方法计算形状阻力;采用线性兴波阻力理论建立三体船的兴波阻力计算方法,提出了一套计算三体船阻力的完整方法。经与船模试验结果比较,采用本方法预报三体船的阻力,Cw的计算结果可以定性地反映侧体布置位置对三体船兴波阻力的影响,计算结果比较接近实际情况,具有一定的可靠性,可用于该船型的阻力预报。     

船舶推进轴系纵向振动及其控制技术研究进展

  目的  为了解决潜艇推进轴系纵向振动问题,  方法  将复杂的潜艇推进轴系简化为均匀阶梯轴系连续模型,采用波分析（WPA）法对各均匀轴段的纵向振动传递关系进行推导。结合实际推进轴系边界条件,给出推进轴系纵向振动在螺旋桨激励下的稳态响应。进一步对推进轴系纵向振动的第1阶固有频率的无量纲公式进行推导,并分析结构参数对固有频率的影响。  结果  将理论计算值与有限元软件仿真结果及实验测试值进行对比,证明了均匀阶梯轴系连续模型的可靠性,可应用于推进轴系纵向振动研究分析。得到的第1阶无量纲公式为后续对潜艇推进轴系纵向振动的分析打下基础。  结论  研究成果具有一定的工程应用价值。     

Slip-based terrain estimation with a skid-steer vehicle

In this paper, a novel approach for online terrain characterisation is presented using a skid-steer vehicle. In the context of this research, terrain characterisation refers to the estimation of physical parameters that affects the terrain ability to support vehicular motion. These parameters are inferred from the modelling of the kinematic and dynamic behaviour of a skid-steer vehicle that reveals the underlying relationships governing the vehicle-terrain interaction. The concept of slip track is introduced as a measure of the slippage experienced by the vehicle during turning motion. The proposed terrain estimation system includes common onboard sensors, that is, wheel encoders, electrical current sensors and yaw rate gyroscope. Using these components, the system can characterise terrain online during normal vehicle operations. Experimental results obtained from different surfaces are presented to validate the system in the field showing its effectiveness and potential benefits to implement adaptive driving assistance systems or to automatically update the parameters of onboard control and planning algorithms.     

Quantification of motorway capacity variation: influence of day type specific variation and capacity drop

Many road authorities work with static values for road capacities, while it has been proven that capacity is not a fixed quantity. At the same time, there is an increasing need for accurate stochastic input for traffic models, such as the variation in road capacity. In this paper, a methodological framework with a conceptual model for practical stochastic capacity estimation is presented, and a quantification of motorway capacity variation is given for the influence of day‐type specific variations in capacity values. The results of the analysis show that there is a reduction in motorway breakdown capacity of 4% on weekend days in comparison with workdays. Furthermore, a capacity decrease of 8% was found for the discharge capacity in comparison with workdays. The analysis further shows that the breakdown capacity on holidays is not significantly lower than on workdays. Discharge capacity and capacity drops are also derived in each case. The results show that the capacity is significantly different depending on the type of day. A quantification of these differences is given in the form of a Weibull capacity estimation fit for each type‐of‐day scenario. Further consideration of the implications and applications of the framework is also given. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.