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江淮气旋大风预报研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
杨良华 《交通部上海船舶运输科学研究所学报》1995,18(2):54-64
江淮气旋大风预报研究的结果表明:气旋大风的预报实际上就是冷空气南下造成地面加压与气旋东移造成地面降压,这两个因素所造成气压梯度发展变化地以预报。还介绍用天气学原理建立的大风预报模式,以及用数理统计方法判别有无强风的预报,经过历史拟合和试报,在预报气旋大风中有一定的准确性。 相似文献
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针对隧洞工程设计过程中岩体力学参数取值难的问题,将能综合考虑岩块力学特性及岩体地质条件的改进H-B准则引入某公路隧洞的支护设计过程,在介绍这一准则使用条件、使用方法的基础上,应用这一准则对某公路隧洞考虑和不考虑爆破影响的岩体力学参数进行了确定,并应用大型岩土工程数值分析软件FINAL进行了模拟施工过程的仿真分析,最后对H-B准则应用过程中的几个关键问题进行了探讨。 相似文献
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研究目的:关于深埋长大隧道高地应力问题,业界存在许多理论和判据,不同行业、不同项目采用的判据各有不同。究竟如何预判岩爆地质灾害,有效指导安全施工。通过秦岭翠华山特长隧道勘察预判和施工验证,研究隧道高地应力问题及如何预判岩爆灾害。研究结论:秦岭翠华山特长隧道最大水平主应力方向与隧洞轴线方向夹角偏大,发生岩爆是不可避免的;基于地应力参数和岩石参数计算得出洞身开挖时存在岩爆可能性的结论,具有一定的片面性;翠华山隧道施工实践证明,在众多理论和判据中,应该多采用几种判据,综合分析后评价岩爆问题,更能接近于实际。 相似文献
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In this paper, a novel mesoscopic multilane model is proposed to enable simultaneous simulation of mandatory and discretionary lane-changing behaviors to realistically capture multilane traffic dynamics. The model considers lane specific fundamental diagrams to simulate dynamic heterogeneous lane flow distributions on expressways. Moreover, different priority levels are identified according to different lane-changing motivations and the corresponding levels of urgency. Then, an algorithm is proposed to estimate the dynamic mandatory and discretionary lane-changing demands. Finally, the lane flow propagation is defined by the reaction law of the demand–supply functions, which can be regarded as an extension of the Incremental-Transfer and/or Priority Incremental-Transfer principles. The proposed mesoscopic multilane cell transmission model is calibrated and validated on a complex weaving section of the State Route 241 freeway in Orange County, California, showing both the positive and negative impact of lane changing maneuvers, e.g., balancing effect and capacity drop, respectively. Moreover, the empirical study verifies that the model requires no additional data other than the cell transmission model does. Thus, the proposed model can be deployed as a simple simulation tool for accessing dynamic mesoscopic multilane traffic state from data available to most management centers, and also the potential application in predicting the impact of traffic incident or lane control strategy. 相似文献
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刘超 《铁道标准设计通讯》2018,(3):26-30
为了研究轨道结构安全监测中传感器的合理配置方法,确保城市轨道交通安全运营,通过建立桥上交叉渡线道岔模型和钢轨应变传递误差最小的目标函数,提出传感器测点选择依据和监测方案评价标准,保证监测方案的经济性、合理性。结论表明:模型数据曲线可以指导监测系统的测点位置选择;随着传感器测点数量增加,监测误差逐渐减小,但在误差比率的"拐点"后增加单位个数传感器带来的收益降低;通过建立误差最小准则的目标函数,结合误差指标可以评价和优化传感器布设方案;钢轨位移、附加力等指标的监测方案也可以通过本文方法确定。 相似文献
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结合船舶驾驶员的岗位职责,依照现代职业教育理论和成果,设计了船舶通信英语口语与听力课程标准.对该课程的课程概述、培养目标、与前后课程的联系、教学内容与学时分配、学习资源、教师要求、学习场地与设施要求、考核方式与标准、学习情境设计进行了设计和描述,将船舶通信中典型工作任务转化为学习型任务. 相似文献
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Currently, the shipping industry is facing a great challenge of reducing emissions. Reducing ship speeds will reduce the emissions in the immediate future with no additional infrastructure. However, a detailed investigation is required to verify the claim that a 10% speed reduction would lead to 19% fuel savings (Faber et al., 2012).This paper investigates fuel savings due to speed reduction using detailed modeling of ship performance. Three container ships, two bulk carriers, and one tanker, representative of the shipping fleet, have been designed. Voyages have been simulated by modeling calm water resistance, wave resistance, propulsion efficiency, and engine limits. Six ships have been simulated in various weather conditions at different speeds. Potential fuel savings have been estimated for a range of speed reductions in realistic weather.It is concluded that the common assumption of cubic speed-power relation can cause a significant error in the estimation of bunker consumption. Simulations in different seasons have revealed that fuel savings due to speed reduction are highly weather dependent. Therefore, a simple way to include the effect of weather in shipping transport models has been proposed.Speed reduction can lead to an increase in the number of ships to fulfill the transport demand. Therefore, the emission reduction potential of speed reduction strategy, after accounting for the additional ships, has been studied. Surprisingly, when the speed is reduced by 30%, fuel savings vary from 2% to 45% depending on ship type, size and weather conditions. Fuel savings further reduce when the auxiliary engines are considered. 相似文献