A risk assessment model with systematical uncertainty treatment for container shipping operations

ABSTRACT

The substantial adverse effects of risk factors on container shipping and logistics promoted a deep integration of risk analysis into the decision-making process. This paper aims to develop a well-grounded quantitative model to operational risk in a container shipping context. Considering uncertainty as a primary component of the risk concept, methods were employed in an inter-complementary manner to enable not only a sense of foreseeability but also a deeper look into the weaknesses of the knowledge base. The intersubjectivity of the input extraction process was supported by the Evidential Reasoning (ER) algorithm. Risks are then assessed based on a Fuzzy Rules Bayesian Network (FRBN) model with a 2-level parameter structure before meaningful interpretations can be derived through a new risk mapping approach. Besides an illustrative case study, the model was tested by sensitivity analysis and an examination of multiple validity claims.     

Ship resistance when operating in floating ice floes: A combined CFD&DEM approach

Whilst climate change is transforming the Arctic into a navigable ocean where small ice floes are floating on the sea surface, the effect of such ice conditions on ship performance has yet to be understood. The present work combines a set of numerical methods to simulate the ship-wave-ice interaction in such ice conditions. Particularly, Computational Fluid Dynamics is applied to provide fluid solutions for the floes and it is incorporated with the Discrete Element Method to govern ice motions and account for ship-ice/ice-ice collisions, by which, the proposed approach innovatively includes ship-generated waves in the interaction. In addition, this work provides two algorithms that can implement computational models with natural ice-floe fields, which takes floe size distribution and randomness into consideration thus achieving high-fidelity modelling of the problem. Following validation against experiments, the model is shown accurate in predicting the ice-floe resistance of a ship, and then a series of simulations are performed to investigate how the resistance is influenced by ship speed, ice concentration, ice thickness and floe diameter. This paper presents a useful approach that can provide power estimates for Arctic shipping and has the potential to facilitate other polar engineering purposes.     

江河海统筹一体化在海事政务中的探索及应用

江河海统筹一体化在海事政务的应用研究对于适度超前顺应和促进水运现代化、推动海事治理现代化和高质量发展有着重要意义。文中通过对南通海事局江河海海事政务统筹一体化实践的分析,认为应重点推进政务标准一体化、政务服务一体化、政务功能一体化、政务资源一体化,创造性地开展相关工作,提高海事行政能力、服务能力和社会影响力。     

Profit-based maritime container assignment models for liner shipping networks

We propose the problem of profit-based container assignment (P-CA), in which the container shipment demand is dependent on the freight rate, similar to the “elastic demand” in the literature on urban transportation networks. The problem involves determining the optimal freight rates, the number of containers to transport and how to transport the containers in a liner shipping network to maximize the total profit. We first consider a tactical-level P-CA with known demand functions that are estimated based on historical data and formulate it as a nonlinear optimization model. The tactical-level P-CA can be used for evaluating and improving the container liner shipping network. We then address the operational-level P-CA with unknown demand functions, which aims to design a mechanism that adjusts the freight rates to maximize the profit. A theoretically convergent trial-and-error approach, and a practical trial-and-error approach, are developed. A numerical example is reported to illustrate the application of the models and approaches.     

前海自贸区在国际高端航运服务业中心建设中面临的挑战

文中阐述了中国(广东)自由贸易试验区前海蛇口自贸片区成立的以来中央与地方层面给予的政策和在国际高端航运服务业中心建设中取得的成效。同时与国内其他自贸区以及香港进行对比分析,提出前海自贸区在建设国际高端航运服务业中心建设中在航运要素集聚、航运人才吸收和培养、与国际先进规则的对比、深港澳合作机制的强化四个方面面临的挑战。     

川江神背嘴滩航道条件评价

在泸渝段航道整治工程中,开辟神背嘴滩右槽为主航槽,整治初期效果显著。针对长江上游船舶大型化、神背嘴滩十余年河床演变后的航道条件适应性问题,基于滩槽演变、浅区变化、分流比、流速比降、与船舶发展和航道规划适应性等方面对神背嘴滩航道条件进行分析评价。评价认为航槽有所回淤。鉴于各水位期均存在坡陡流急的现象,提出特殊时期扩大泄水断面、适当提高部分整治建筑物高程的维护措施。     

国际航运投资决策应用实物期权方法的分析

从国际航运的投资特点出发,通过实物期权方法与现行方法的比较,分析了国际航运投资决策应用实物期权方法的必要性与可行性,初步提出了国际航运投资项目存在的八种灵活性及其相应的实物期权。     

新中国治淮事业的元勋——曾山

无产阶级革命家、新中国部长曾山,是新中国治淮事业的开拓者,是毛泽东的“救灾部长”。在他担任治淮工作委员会主任,领导治准工作中,关心和重用人才,发挥知识分子的特殊作用;提出并实践“人民民主制度是治淮力量的源泉”的思想;曾山的治淮功勋和精神风范永远值得我们怀念和崇敬。     

松花江大顶子山航电枢纽平面布置

在通航河流上修建枢纽综合利用工程，由于受到地形、地质等条件的制约，且这类工程因需同时满足电站、船闸等水工建筑物对水流、泥沙条件的要求，在进行总体布置时往往会遇到枢纽中各建筑物布置合理与否问题，需要妥善处理．以取得较好的综合效益。松花江大顶子山航电枢纽工程在进行平面布置时作了多方案的比较，提出了较合理的枢纽总体布置方案。根据大顶子山航电枢纽平面布置模型试验成果，全面介绍枢纽布置方案。     

北盘江坝油滩河段整治流量与整治线宽度的研究

总结以往航道整治工作经验,结合整治河段的实际情况,对北盘江坝油滩河段重要整治参数———整治流量与整治线宽度进行了深入细致的分析研究,得出了较为合理的结果。