基于BP神经网络的交通事故预测模型

交通事故预测对于分析现有道路交通条件下交通事故的未来发展趋势及其预防具有重要意义。在进行交通事故统计的基础上，运用BP神经网络理论，建立交通事故预测模型。计算结果表明，该模型较传统方法精度高，可用于交通事故预测。     

The analysis of motor vehicle crash clusters using the vector quantization technique

In this paper, a powerful tool for analyzing motor vehicle data based on the vector quantization (VQ) technique is demonstrated. The technique uses an approximation of a probability density function for a stochastic vector without assuming an “a priori” distribution. A self‐organizing map (SOM) is used to transform accident data from an N‐dimensional space into a two‐dimensional plane. The SOM retains all the original data yet provides an effective visual tool for describing patterns such as the frequency at which a particular category of events occurs. This enables new relationships to be identified. Accident data from three cities in Italy (Turin, Milan, and Legnano) are used to illustrate the usefulness of the technique. Crashes are aggregated and clustered crashes by type, severity, and along other dimensions. The paper includes discussion as to how this method can be utilized to further improve safety analysis. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

道路交通死亡人数的灰色马尔可夫预测

将灰色系统理论和马尔可夫理论相结合,建立道路交通事故死亡人数灰色马尔可夫预测模型。道路交通事故死亡人数灰色马尔可夫预测既有灰色预测的优点,同时又有马尔可夫链的优点。通过对昆明城市的实际例子的计算,可以看到,在道路交通事故死亡人数预测中,灰色马尔可夫预测模型精确度比较好,有较好的预测结果。     

Duration analysis for recurrent ship accidents

About 63% of the world’s shipping accidents are recurrent—they occur to ships that have already experienced at least one prior accident. Therefore, reducing recurrent accidents can contribute significantly to maritime safety. We study the factors affecting both first and recurrent accidents, by focusing on the duration between two accidents. Cox proportional hazard models are applied to ship accident data from 1996 to 2015, and the results identify which ships have a high risk of recurrent accidents, based on ship attributes, ship supply and market conditions, shipbuilding country, previous accident type, and ship type. The recurrent rate is high when the ship involved in the accident is old, small, flies a flag of convenience, and has no detention record. In addition, the accident risk increases when the shipping market faces a high bunker price, overcapacity in supply, a high time charter rate, or low newbuilding price. On the other hand, ships built in China and Japan have lower recurrent accident rates than those built elsewhere, although ships built in China have earlier first accidents than do others. General cargo ships have the highest recurrent accident rate, followed by dry bulkers, container ships, and tankers, in that order.     

大学生人身伤害事故归责原则分析

高校在办学过程中发生的大学生人身伤害事故的解决主要取决于如何认定高校与大学生的法律关系及高校责任的归结问题.高校与大学生的法律关系不是单一的,包括教育行政法律关系、民事法律关系等,因此决定其归责原则体系应由过错责任原则、过错推定责任原则组成.提出解决大学生人身伤害事故的赔偿应实现市场化.     

道路交通事故灰色预测模型的建构与应用研究

分析了我国当前交通安全形势的严峻性,说明了道路交通事故预测技术的重要性.在对比两种传统的交通事故预测模型的基础上,分析了灰色模型在交通事故预测中的优越性,并构建GM(1,1)对道路交通事故量进行了预测,结果证明是可信的.     

论租赁车辆交通肇事赔偿责任的承担

从机动车肇事责任主体的一般理论入手,通过对机动车肇事归责原则的分析,明确了在租赁车辆肇事时租赁公司和承租人承担责任的具体情形,对此类纠纷的司法实践具有借鉴意义。     

浅谈沉箱预制的安全生产及措施

随着沉箱施工能力的大幅提升,沉箱预制施工过程中暴露出的事故隐患也日显突出。文章总结了以往沉箱预制事故教训,对事故产生的原因进行了分析,辩识了沉箱预制过程危险因素,论述了在模板工艺设计、技术措施和管理措施二三个方面应采取的安全措施。     

学生顶岗实习意外伤害中双重角色的维权尴尬及解决办法

本文阐述顶岗实习意外伤害中学生双重角色身份至使得维权尴尬,针对尴尬,做好伤害事故前的预防,事故发生后的妥善处置,并寻求必要的保障体系,来维护学生、学校的合法利益。     

多层多维关联规则在交通事故研究中的应用

基于大量的真实交通事故案例,利用关联规则技术中的约束原则和Apriori算法思想,对交通事故信息进行数据挖掘,探求符合真实规律的关联规则.研究证明了关联规则在交通事故分析领域有着良好的应用前景,不但能够加深对交通事故的认识,还可以为改善道路建设以及提高车辆安全性提供很多有价值的参考.