Determinants of full and partial household evacuation decision making in hurricane matthew

This paper adds partial household evacuation to the traditional binary evacuate/stay decision. Based on data from a survey of Jacksonville, FL residents after Hurricane Matthew, multinomial (MNL) and random parameter MNL models were developed to determine the influential factors and whether some variables’ effects are more nuanced than prior literature suggests. The random parameter model was preferred to the fixed parameters model. Variables significant in this model included injury concern, certainty about hurricane impact location, age, marital status, family cohesion, and living in mobile or detached homes. Greater injury concern results in lower likelihood of none of the household evacuating and greater likelihood of partial evacuation, but lower likelihood of full household evacuation. Similarly, greater certainty about hurricane impact increased the probability of partial household evacuation but decreased the probability of full evacuation. Respondent age had heterogenous effects; for 85.54% of respondents, additional years of age increased the likelihood of the household staying. Married households had a higher likelihood of staying or evacuating together. Similarly, greater family cohesion was associated with the household remaining together. Living in mobile homes decreased the likelihood that all of the household stays or evacuates and increased the probability of partial household evacuation. Living in a single-family detached home was associated with lower likelihood of all of the household staying or evacuating and a greater likelihood of a partial household evacuation. These findings can inform strategies that influence full or partial household evacuations, material requirements based on these decisions, and ways to reduce family risk.     

基于时空特性和组合深度学习的交通流参数估计

为深入挖掘交通流时空特性,提高交通流参数估计精度,基于深度学习提出一种交通流参数估计的组合方法.根据目标断面及其上游断面的交通流数据构造输入矩阵,利用卷积神经网络捕捉交通流的空间特性,使用长短期记忆和门控循环神经网络挖掘交通流的时间特性,组合3种深度学习方法所得输出,得到交通流参数估计值.采用中国安徽省合肥市和美国加州...     

浅海信道调频水声语音通信方法比较

水声语音通信在海洋工程、海洋科考、水下搜救等领域具有广泛应用。与单边带通信、数字编码调制通信相比,调频水声语音通信具有实现简单方便、抗幅度衰落性能好的特点,但浅海水声信道具有的复杂多径效应及噪声严重影响其获得的语音音质,容易出现语音含混、语义难辨等问题。本文通过浅海不同距离、不同多径信道下的海试实验比较了采用非线性解调法和正交解调法的调频语音通信性能,并通过客观语音质量评估PESQ(Perceptual evaluation of speech quality)方法对调频水声语音通信音质进行量化评估。     

基于归一化误差函数的变步长分数间隔盲均衡算法研究

针对常数模算法收敛速度慢的特点,提出了一种快速收敛的盲均衡算法。该算法修改了传统常数模算法的误差函数,且采用可变步长和分数间隔采样,有效地提高了收敛速度。浅海水声信道模型仿真结果表明,采用归一化变步长分数间隔常数模盲均衡算法比传统的常数模算法和固定步长分数间隔算法收敛快,均衡性能有明显提高。     

基于选择性合并频率分集的多载频盲均衡算法

水声信道的多径传播和衰落特性常在接收端引起码间干扰,严重影响了水声通信质量.为了减少码间干扰,提高通信质量,在分析频率分集技术和常数模盲均衡性能的基础上,提出了一种基于选择性合并频率分集的常数模盲均衡算法(SC-CMA).该算法利用了频率分集来减少衰落的影响,克服码间干扰,具有收敛速度快、均方误差小的特点.计算机仿真结果,验证了该算法的有效性.     

声相关计程仪的工作原理与适用性

声相关计程仪是一种利用波形不变性原理制成的自主式测速导航设备。即便在GPS导航高速发展、INS系统已提高到很高精度的今天,声相关计程仪仍然有其不可替代的导航作用,尤其在军事领域更是如此。通过介绍船用声相关计程仪的基本原理及其应用范围,阐明声相计程仪的组成各部分作用特点及其适用性。     

VMT, energy consumption, and GHG emissions forecasting for passenger transportation

Globalization, greenhouse gas emissions and energy concerns, emerging vehicle technologies, and improved statistical modeling capabilities make the present moment an opportune time to revisit aggregate vehicle miles traveled (VMT), energy consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions forecasting for passenger transportation. Using panel data for the 48 continental states during the period 1998-2008, the authors develop simultaneous equation models for predicting VMT on different road functional classes and examine how different technological solutions and changes in fuel prices can affect passenger VMT. Moreover, a random coefficient panel data model is developed to estimate the influence of various factors (such as demographics, socioeconomic variables, fuel tax, and capacity) on the total amount of passenger VMT in the United States. To assess the influence of each significant factor on VMT, elasticities are estimated. Further, the authors investigate the effect of different policies governing fuel tax and population density on future energy consumption and GHG emissions. The presented methodology and estimation results can assist transportation planners and policy-makers in determining future energy and transportation infrastructure investment needs.     

水下双层圆柱壳辐射声场欠定分离评估方法研究

水下双层加筋圆柱壳振动和辐射声场的评估对其辐射噪声监测和控制具有重要工程意义。文中通过结构振动模态参与因子向量自身的稀疏特性,分析提出了一种基于结构振动的辐射噪声欠定分离评估方法,可实现有限振动测点情况下的水下复杂结构振动和辐射声场的有效评估。数值和试验结果验证了文中方法的有效性,且所需要的振动测点数目少,具有良好的工程适用性。     

中低速磁浮列车救援支撑装置的优化及冲洗回路参数设定

介绍了中低速磁浮列车救援支撑装置的组成及其工作原理,以及增压缸的工作过程。分析了救援支撑装置的常见问题。阐述了救援支撑装置的气液回路优化措施和控制方式优化措施,并基于长沙长沙磁浮快线的实际情况,通过计算得到冲洗回路工艺参数设定参考值,提高了救援支撑装置的可靠性及可操作维护性。     

手机社交娱乐操作对驾驶人视觉参数影响研究

为探究手机社交娱乐操作对驾驶人视觉参数的影响,基于模拟驾驶器和SmartEye 眼动仪设计模拟驾驶实验,采集驾驶人正常驾驶、拨打电话、收发信息等5种操作下视觉特征数据,应用拉依达准则和联合频数分布直方图进行数据归约.针对不同操作下视觉参数,应用箱形图和Kruskal-Wallis显著性检验,验证视觉参数评价指标的有效性.结果表明：随手机操作类型的不同,驾驶人水平和垂直视角标准差、视线离开道路时间百分比、扫视平均速度和眨眼持续时间呈显著性变化,可作为视觉参数影响的评价指标;观看视频和刷朋友圈操作对驾驶人视觉影响程度明显高于拨打电话和收发短信操作.