Towards a generic benchmarking platform for origin–destination flows estimation/updating algorithms: Design,demonstration and validation

Estimation/updating of Origin–Destination (OD) flows and other traffic state parameters is a classical, widely adopted procedure in transport engineering, both in off-line and in on-line contexts. Notwithstanding numerous approaches proposed in the literature, there is still room for considerable improvements, also leveraging the unprecedented opportunity offered by information and communication technologies and big data. A key issue relates to the unobservability of OD flows in real networks – except from closed highway systems – thus leading to inherent difficulties in measuring performance of OD flows estimation/updating methods and algorithms. Starting from these premises, the paper proposes a common evaluation and benchmarking framework, providing a synthetic test bed, which enables implementation and comparison of OD estimation/updating algorithms and methodologies under “standardized” conditions. The framework, implemented in a platform available to interested parties upon request, has been flexibly designed and allows comparing a variety of approaches under various settings and conditions. Specifically, the structure and the key features of the framework are presented, along with a detailed experimental design for the application of different dynamic OD flow estimation algorithms. By way of example, applications to both off-line/planning and on-line algorithms are presented, together with a demonstration of the extensibility of the presented framework to accommodate additional data sources.     

A Numerical Model for Multiple Phase Transformations in Steels during Thermal Processes

IntroductionltiswellknownthatmetallmpicalstrUcforeofsteelsandheattransferarefullycouPled.PhasechangesdependontemPertheeevoluton,whereastemPertheeisinfluencedbycontrastsofmaterialcharacteristicsbetWeenphasesandlatenheateffects.AlotofworkhasbeenpefformedonthssubeCt,andclassicalmodelsarenowwidelyimPlementedintofiniteelementcomPutercodes[l][2][31[4][5][61.Thesemodelsaregenerallybasedonf.AVramityPekinetics[7][8]l9]Whnthephasechangeisgovernedbydiffusion,.TheKoistinen-Marburgerlaw[l0]fOrmfornsi…     

Modelling nutrient fluxes from sub-arctic basins: Comparison of pristine vs. dammed rivers

The deterministic Riverstrahler model of river functioning is applied for the first time to sub-arctic catchments. Seasonal nutrient (N, P, Si) deliveries to the coastal zone are simulated, and nutrient annual fluxes are established for the nearly pristine river Kalix (hereafter called Kalixälven) and the heavily dammed river Lule, (hereafter called Luleälven) both located in Northern Sweden and draining into the Bothnian Bay, Baltic Sea.For Kalixälven simulations are performed with a runoff calculated from precipitation, evapo-transpiration and temperature data for the period 1990–1999, using a hydrological model calibrated on observed monthly discharges at the river outlet. The same hydrological parameters are used to calculate specific runoff for the Luleälven basin in absence of dam regulation. Reservoir filling and emptying are simulated using a simplified representation of their management rules. Diffuse sources of nutrient are evaluated according to land cover of the catchment. The simulated seasonal trends are within the range of the observed data, in particular for discharge, dissolved silica, total phosphorus, inorganic nitrogen and total organic carbon. Specific runoff is 50% higher in the Luleälven than in the Kalixälven watershed due to higher altitudes and precipitations. Average silica, nitrate and phosphorus concentrations are much lower in Luleälven than in Kalixälven. Comparison of model results for the Luleälven with and without dams shows a reduction of respectively 25% and 30% in silica and phosphorus fluxes delivered at the outlet, while nitrogen delivery is increased by 10% in the dammed vs. undammed river system. The model allows assessing the respective role of reservoir trapping of nutrient in the reservoir through algal uptake and sedimentation, and of changes in the vegetation induced by flooding the valley formerly covered by forests and wetlands.     

Optimisation of lateral car dynamics taking into account parameter uncertainties

Simulation studies on an active all-wheel-steering car show that disturbance of vehicle parameters have high influence on lateral car dynamics. This motivates the need of robust design against such parameter uncertainties. A specific parametrisation is established combining deterministic, velocity-dependent steering control parameters with partly uncertain, velocity-independent vehicle parameters for simultaneous use in a numerical optimisation process. Model-based objectives are formulated and summarised in a multi-objective optimisation problem where especially the lateral steady-state behaviour is improved by an adaption strategy based on measurable uncertainties. The normally distributed uncertainties are generated by optimal Latin hypercube sampling and a response surface based strategy helps to cut down time consuming model evaluations which offers the possibility to use a genetic optimisation algorithm. Optimisation results are discussed in different criterion spaces and the achieved improvements confirm the validity of the proposed procedure.     

Port e-Transformation,customer satisfaction and competitiveness

ABSTRACT

e-Transformation in container ports means port organization-wide innovative transformation encompassing internal and external value chains based on information and communication technology. There is a considerable theoretical literature on the impact of e-Transformation on business performance, but there is very little empirical study on its effectiveness in ports. The objective of this paper is to empirically investigate how e-Transformation in container port management can influence customer satisfaction and port competitiveness. The findings reveal that e-Transformation in container ports can affect customer satisfaction and port competitiveness through e-Workplace, customer relationship management and security, implying that container ports should make every effort to focus on e-transformation in these critical areas. Due to limited empirical studies in this area, the findings have provided an empirical support for the importance of e-Transformation in container terminal management and shed more light on how e-Transformation can affect customer satisfaction and port competitiveness.     

Impacts of trade related sustainability strategies on freight transportation: Modelling framework and application for France

The circular and functional economies are being presented in the literature as potential strategies for future sustainable societies. In terms of the consequences for supply chains, they will promote a much more dispersed and diversified, local and network based usage of goods than the current economy, which is comparatively linear, concentrated, long distance oriented and scale economy based. A gap in the literature is the assessment of the effects of these systems on freight transport flows. In our paper, we present a first attempt at estimating this impact using freight transport scenario building and quantitative modelling. In order to translate the main parameters that characterize these systems into factors determining freight transportation volumes, we develop a framework based on a typology of goods categories describing functional and spatial proximity between producers and consumers. In order to simulate changes in the economy, we develop scenarios for the shifting of goods from one category to another and, additionally, include internalization policies that should guide their realization. We calculate the impacts on freight flows using a new interregional transport model for France that includes distribution chains and produces estimates of external costs of transport. Our results show that circular and functional economies could lead to a 2–5% reduction of air pollutant emissions and up to a 14–26% reduction if combined with the internalization of external costs. The scenario with ongoing mass production for differentiated demand is found to lead to a 5% increase of environmental impacts compared to the baseline.     

A mixed logit model for predicting exit choice during building evacuations

Knowledge on human behaviour in emergency is crucial to increase the safety of buildings and transportation systems. Decision making during evacuations implies different choices, of which one of the most important concerns is the escape route. The choice of a route may involve local decisions on alternative exits from an enclosed environment. This study investigates the effect of environmental (presence of smoke, emergency lighting and distance of exit) and social factors (interaction with evacuees close to the exits and with those near the decision-maker) on local exit choice. This goal is pursued using an online stated preference survey carried out making use of non-immersive virtual reality. A sample of 1503 participants is obtained and a mixed logit model is calibrated using these data. The model shows that the presence of smoke, emergency lighting, distance of exit, number of evacuees near the exits and the decision-maker and flow of evacuees through the exits significantly affect local exit choice. Moreover, the model indicates that decision making is affected by a high degree of behavioural uncertainty. Our findings support the improvement of evacuation models and the accuracy of their results, which can assist in designing and managing building and transportation systems. The main aim of this study is to enrich the understanding of how local exit choices are made and how behavioural uncertainty affects these choices.     

Altimeter assimilation in the OCCAM global model: Part I: A twin experiment

An altimeter data assimilation scheme has been tested in the OCCAM (Ocean Circulation and Climate Advanced Modelling) global 1/4°, 36-level model using a twin experiment format. The Cooper and Haines displacement scheme is used. The method works well in most regions and depths. Currents and densities in the top 1000 m generally improve by over 50–70% after 5 months of sea level assimilation every 15 days. Below 1000 m, an error reduction of up to 50% is achieved. The errors remain low during a further 60-day run without assimilation. Diagnostics for the North Atlantic, the Tropical Pacific and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are shown alongside the global averages.The main problems encountered were in weakly stratified regions of the Antarctic and Arctic seas. A scale selective filter is developed to avoid assimilating scales much larger than the local deformation radius, and this avoids the adverse assimilation effects in the southern oceans. A companion paper uses this scheme to assimilate TOPEX and ERS-1 altimeter maps.     

The performance of route modification and demand stabilization strategies in stochastic vehicle routing

A key concern in managing vehicle routing operations under stochastic demands is whether, on the basis of travel distance, route modification yields materially greater logistical efficiency than fixed routes. This research uses statistical calibration as the primary technique to develop a robust and tractable model for estimating this difference in logistical efficiency. Based on features such as the models predictive accuracy and generalizability, it constitutes a substantive improvement over existing models. The present study also expands the range of predictive models relevant to vehicle routing under stochastic demands with models to estimate the transportation and inventory effects of persuading customers to stabilize their ordering patterns.