支持向量机在路段行程时间预测中的应用研究

主要探讨支持向量机理论在路段行程时间预测中的应用。具体的方法是,首先将研究路段根据路段交通状态和车辆检测器设置情况进行分段,然后以前几个时段的各个小路段的交通流量、平均速度和车道占有率和整个路段的行程时间为输入,以下一时段的整个路段的行程时间为输出,选取高斯径向基函数作为核函数,建立了基于支持向量机的路段行程时间预测模型,从而探讨支持向量机在路段行程时间预测中的应用效果。最后,利用交通仿真软件的模拟数据进行验证,并与BP神经网络计算结果比较,计算结果的对比表明本文提出的方法预测效果更好。     

十字环形交叉口绿灯间隔时间计算方法研究

以十字环形交叉口内部各股车流的潜在冲突点和车辆启动形成的启动波为依据,将环形交叉口左转二次控制的绿灯间隔时间转化为环道左转与本相直行之间的绿灯间隔时间、环道左转与下一相位绿灯启亮时差以及两直行相位绿灯间隔时间的组合,提出各个绿灯启亮的时间差以及绿灯间隔时间的计算方法,并将该方法应用于实例计算。论文的研究成果对提高十字环形交叉口左转二次控制效率和提高交叉口运行的安全性具有重要的意义和实用价值。     

可直接计算转向流量的改进型DIAL交通分配算法

为了在交通分配中直接计算转向流量而不是通过事后推算获取,利用转向—路段拓扑关系及其衍生路段上流量守恒的规律,对Logit交通分配中最常用的DIAL算法进行改进。改进后的DIAL算法既继承了原算法的基本结构和全部优点,又可在得到路段流量的同时直接计算转向流量,且能避免传统的FURNESS、FRATOR等事后推算模型在进行路段流量至转向流量迭代推算时的过大计算量及其他缺点。最后通过一个经典算例验证了该算法的有效性。     

北京机场线无人驾驶模式系统的研究与实践

北京机场线是国内首条采用无人驾驶技术的地铁线路。阐述北京机场线无人驾驶系统采用基于通信的列车控制系统的结构与性能,重点分析无人驾驶系统的技术应用,对无人驾驶系统投入运营的情况进行相关介绍。     

事故多发点鉴别本质及基于BP神经网络的鉴别方法研究

首先对常规事故多发点鉴别方法进行了分析和评述,并通过实例揭示了多发点的鉴别本质。在此基础上,建立了基于三层BP神经网络的城市干道路段事故多发点鉴别模型。该模型考虑了交通事故7个方面的影响因素,并能将常规鉴别方法不易识别出的多发点鉴别出来。其次,应用哈尔滨市市区430个干道路段上1999年至2004年发生的13764起交通事故数据及关联因素数据,对神经网络的权值和偏置值进行了标定,并应用该模型进行了事故多发路段鉴别。最后,分别应用了事故次数概率分布法、矩阵法和质量控制法对430个路段进行了多发点鉴别,并对鉴别结果进行了对比分析。     

基于FCD的旅行时间估计算法研究

根据FCD(Floating Car Data浮动车数据)的特点建立基于FCD旅行时间估计的Kalman滤波模型以及BP神经网络模型,运用上述两种模型进行路段旅行时间短时预测,路段平均旅行时间为输入变量,输出预测路段的旅行时间,并用实测数据进行分析验证.结果表明,针对路段短时旅行时间估计,Kalman滤波模型方法的预测精度要优于BP神经网络方法.     

Estimating arterial link speed using conventional road detectors

Abstract

In response to an initiative to develop an advanced traffic information system in Bangkok, this paper explores practical guidelines for the optimal location of road sensors, such that the data collected on spot speeds reflect an entire link's average speed. In particular, the authors use microsimulation software to investigate optimal detector locations, using the sum of squared errors and root mean squared errors. The analysis hypothesizes that road segments are 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 km in length and are specially designed to replicate typical arterial streets in Bangkok. The results show that a single detector location can produce good estimates of link speed only for segments that are shorter than 1.0 km. For distances of 1.0 km or more, the results suggest that two detectors be used for good link speed estimates under all traffic conditions.     

How tube strikes affect macroscopic and link travel times in London

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of the five strikes on the London Underground (metro) rail system, which occurred in 2009 and 2010, on macroscopic and road link travel times. A consequence of these strikes was an increase in road traffic flows above usual levels. This provides an opportunity to observe the operation of the road network under unusually high flows. The first objective involves the examination of strike effects on inbound (IT) and outbound traffic (OT) within central, inner and outer London. Travel time data obtained from automatic number plate recognition cameras are used within the first part of the analysis. The second more detailed objective was to investigate in spatio-temporal effects on travel times on five road links. Correlation analyses and general linear models are developed using both traffic flow and travel time data. According to the results of the study, the morning IT had approximately twice as much delay as the OT. Central London experienced the highest delays, followed by inner and outer London. As would be expected, the unique full-day strike in 2009 yielded the worst impact on the network with the highest percentage increase in total travel time (60%) occurring during the morning peak in the IT in inner London. The results from the link-level analysis showed statistical significance amongst the examined links indicating heterogeneous effects from one link to another. It was also found that travel time changes may be more effectively captured through time-of-day terms compared to hourly traffic flows.     

A framework for neighbour links travel time estimation in an urban network

This paper proposes a solution to the problem of limited network sensor coverage caused by insufficient sample size of probe vehicles or inadequate numbers of fixed sensors. A framework is proposed to estimate link travel times using available data from neighbouring links. Two clues are used for real-time travel time estimation: link historical travel time data and online travel time data from neighbour links. In the absence of online travel time data from neighbour links, historical records only have to be relied upon. However, where the two types of data are available, a data fusion scheme can be applied to make use of the two clues. The proposed framework is validated using real-life data from the City of Vancouver, British Columbia. The estimation accuracy is found to be comparable to the existing literature. Overall, the results demonstrate the feasibility of using neighbour links data as an additional source of information that might not have been extensively explored before.