Part 2. Beyond single-outcome models: Decompositions of aggregate and disaggregate road safety risk

The second part of the state-of-the-art focuses on the development of the founders' double streams explaining single-outcome indicators (probability of accidents and fatalities, respectively) by fixed form regression, as outlined in the Part 1. Following Page (1997, pp. 67–122, 2001) and others, we use as turning point of the evolution of both aggregate and discrete approaches the DRAG-1 model of 1984, itself based on aggregate data, which introduced four key innovations in principle applicable to both streams.     

PHC桩的抗氯离子渗透性

通过“压蒸”和“免压蒸”两种工艺生产的PHC桩的抗氯离子渗透性试验研究,获得PHC桩混凝土的抗氯离子渗透性指标。对海洋环境下在役PHC桩受氯离子侵蚀情况进行调研和取样分析,获得在役PHC桩受海水中氯离子侵蚀的腐蚀曲线,掌握PHC桩混凝土中氯离子的渗透规律,对掌握PHC管桩的耐久性状况有实际意义。     

降凝剂在低输量管线中的应用

低输量输油管道运行风险大,且无法通过调整输送工艺从根本上降低运行风险.降凝剂被认为是解决该问题的有效手段之一.文中阐述了降凝剂对原油的作用机理和其在输油管道上的实际应用效果,分析了在任丘-北京输油管线开展的降凝剂应用试验,通过对比试验结果,可以得出：降凝剂改善了油品凝点、黏度等物理性质,降低了低输量管线的运行风险,提高了管线运营的经济效益.     

Accommodating risk in the valuation of expected travel time savings

Valuation of travel time savings is a critical measure in transport infrastructure appraisal, traffic modelling and network performance. It has been recognised for some time that the travel times associated with repeated trips are subject to variation, and hence there is risk embedded in the treatment of expected travel time. In the context of the expected utility framework, we use a nonlinear probability weighting function to accommodate choice made under risk. Although the empirical findings suggest small differences between the value of expected travel time savings (VETTS) in the presence and absence of risk, the mean estimate does make a noticeable difference to time benefits when applied to real projects. By incorporating nonlinear probability weighting, our model reveals that the probabilities associated with specific travel times that are shown to respondents in the choice experiment are transformed, resulting in overweighting of outcomes with low probabilities and underweighting of outcomes with high probabilities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

专业及非专业驾驶人跟驰安全特性评价

为研究专业与非专业驾驶人的跟驰安全性,以真实道路交通环境下驾驶人跟驰行为的数据采集为基础,应用碰撞时间TTC及其拓展指标TET和TIT 3个跟驰安全评价指标,对比分析了受测专业及非专业驾驶人TTC频率分布和单位时间内TET及TIT平均百分比,从而对专业及非专业驾驶人跟驰安全特性进行了评价.研究结果表明在跟驰过程中专业驾驶人保持较小碰撞时间的比例比非专业驾驶人高,同时专业驾驶人单位时间内TET及TIT平均百分比大于非专业驾驶人.     

穗莞深城际(5×30m)双线变四线道岔连续梁设计与施工

随着高速铁路的发展,桥梁在铁路中所占的比例越来越重,铁路道岔也从路基走上了桥梁,道岔连续梁开始广泛应用。文中以穗莞深城际(5×30m)双线变四线道岔连续梁设计为例,对城际铁路道岔变宽连续梁的设计进行了介绍,阐述了该结构受力特点、计算分析、构造措施及施工方法。     

高性能同步注浆材料专用外加剂的研制

为利用盾构泥砂成功制备出高性能同步注浆材料,采用膨润土、凹凸棒黏土、羟丙基甲基纤维素、羟乙基纤维素、FDN减水剂、聚羧酸减水剂与葡萄糖酸钠进行复配,优选配方组成,研制出高性能同步注浆材料专用外加剂HMA。结果表明,掺加HMA配制出的同步注浆材料工作性能好,初始流动度可达210 mm,流动度经时损失极小,能有效防止管片上浮,稠度值为10 cm左右,泌水率几乎为0,抗水分散效果好,28 d水陆强度比可达0.90以上。说明HMA外加剂非常适合用来配制高性能同步注浆材料。     

Rear‐end crash potential estimation in the work zone merging areas

This paper proposed a methodology to estimate rear‐end crash potential of the merging vehicles traveling in the merge lane, on the basis of the traffic data extracting from the available videotapes. First, we developed a binary logit model to identify drivers' merging behavior in the work zone merging area. Subsequently, the occurrence potential of rear‐end crash based on time‐to‐collision was computed between the merging vehicle and its neighboring vehicles. The overall crash potential of the merging vehicle was finally determined. It was found that the crash potential decreases with the remaining distance to work zone. Moreover, there will be a rear‐end crash potential of 4.0% if the merging vehicle fails to complete merging at the end of work zone merging area. If the merging vehicle takes an early merge, there will be a lower rear‐end crash potential (1.2%). These findings suggest that we should encourage merging vehicles to take early merges for improving the traffic safety in the work zone merging areas. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

城市地铁越江隧道上浮引起的土体变形分析

文章基于盾构隧道统一土体移动模型基本假定,建立了隧道上浮作用下的两圆顶部相切土体移动模型;利用Melan公式计算得出了隧道上浮引起的土体变形(上浮力作用下的土体变形,再叠加土体损失引起的土体变形)二维解;应用ABAQUS有限元分析软件,结合在建南昌地铁1号线抚河桥区段工程,建立计算模型,对隧道上浮引起的土体变形进行了模拟计算。结果表明,推导的土体变形二维解与数值模拟结果比较吻合;越江隧道上浮引起的土体变形规律是河底表面呈"倒沉降槽"形,深层土体呈"双弓"形,且其幅度随距隧道轴线距离增大而减小。     

塔寺岭至新集段大修方案研究

塔寺岭至新集段2003年竣工通车,二级公路标准。经路况调查,该路段病害较严重,路面强度等级大部分为次等,需要大中修。经论证推荐大修方案为：维持原路线的走向与线形指标;路基路面分路段采取不同的大修方案;桥涵、沿线设施进行完善维修,查缺补漏。经计算该方案造价在合理范围内。