Forecasting travel behavior using Markov Chains-based approaches

Recent advances in agent-based micro-simulation modeling have further highlighted the importance of a thorough full synthetic population procedure for guaranteeing the correct characterization of real-world populations and underlying travel demands. In this regard, we propose an integrated approach including Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and profiling-based methods to capture the behavioral complexity and the great heterogeneity of agents of the true population through representative micro-samples. The population synthesis method is capable of building the joint distribution of a given population with its corresponding marginal distributions using either full or partial conditional probabilities or both of them simultaneously. In particular, the estimation of socio-demographic or transport-related variables and the characterization of daily activity-travel patterns are included within the framework. The fully probabilistic structure based on Markov Chains characterizing this framework makes it innovative compared to standard activity-based models. Moreover, data stemming from the 2010 Belgian Household Daily Travel Survey (BELDAM) are used to calibrate the modeling framework. We illustrate that this framework effectively captures the behavioral heterogeneity of travelers. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the proposed framework is adequately adapted to meeting the demand for large-scale micro-simulation scenarios of transportation and urban systems.     

T梁桥绳锯切割拆除方案优化研究与数值模拟分析

为了研究先简支后连续的T梁桥的整体切割拆除关键技术,以三洲沧江拆除工程为研究背景,结合大桥实际情况制订了针对性的大桥上、下部结构整体拆除施工方案。验证了采用2台80t汽车吊分别站位于旧桥左右幅,将左幅旧桥各跨8片独立的T梁分别进行吊运的绳锯切割拆除方法为最优方案。以典型的简支T梁桥结构为例,采用有限元模型分析了拆除工程中T梁桥的力学性能变化。针对三洲沧江大桥的下部结构特点,特别对水上桥墩的拆除方案进行了数值分析,并对钢抱箍平台上拆除盖梁的方案进行了仿真模拟,验证了下部结构拆除方案的可操作性。本桥梁绳锯切割拆除工程的优化方案及关键技术的应用为相似桥梁切割拆除工程提供一定的参考。     

基于有限元分析及理论计算的驱动桥轴头改进设计

文章主要介绍了某驱动桥焊接轴头开裂的改进设计过程。开裂位置为桥壳中段与轴头焊接处。通过分析讨论确定为轴头与中段焊接处壁厚较小且截面变化较大引起应力集中,从而导致焊接处剪切应力过大引起的开裂现象。改进方法为加大焊接处壁厚及将过渡处改为平缓结构。最后,通过Hypermesh分析改进方案前后轴头焊接处应力,并根据第4强度理论对危险截面进行应力计算,对比现有定型产品,最终确定改进方案。     

大挑臂桩柱式桥墩抗震性能分析

以南宁市某大桥引桥为工程实例,分析采用桩柱形式的双柱墩结构的抗震性能.结果表明,上部结构采用小箱梁结构,并通过合理的跨径布置和支座选型,能够保证下部结构在按静力受力要求配筋的情况下,在E1和E2地震作用下均处于弹性工作状态.     

某桥台填土与桩基施工对地铁线影响分析

地铁运营后,跨线桥桥台路基段填土以及桩基施工时,会对已建成的地铁线隧道产生不利影响,为保证地铁安全,开工前需要进行分析.依托彩梅立交K1+105梅林关方向桥台填土与桩基施工对既有深圳地铁9号线的影响分析,通过PLAXIS 3D有限元分析软件对桥台填土、桩基成孔浇筑等工序进行模拟,对既有地铁线进行安全评估,并对施工监测提出相应要求.其结果表明对于该工程,桥台后填土与桩基施工过程中,地铁隧道安全可靠,可以进行施工.同时该模拟对类似工程工况可提供指导.     

罕遇地震作用下高速铁路减隔震简支梁桥合理计算模型的探讨

以往在分析减隔震桥梁的地震响应时,由于考虑到桥墩和基础应保持弹性工作状态,在基于强度的设计中偏于安全考虑桥墩一般采用毛截面刚度建立弹性梁单元模型。实际上,在罕遇地震作用下,桥墩墩底截面虽然未达到屈服状态,仍然会出现保护层混凝土开裂,并导致桥墩刚度降低。此时,应考虑对桥墩刚度进行适当修正以估计桥梁的各项地震响应参数,这也有利于实现减隔震桥梁基于位移的抗震设计。结合西部高速铁路中典型的简支梁桥结构形式,分别采用弹塑性纤维梁柱单元、弹性梁柱单元、考虑刚度修正的弹性梁柱单元模拟桥墩建立3种计算模型,探讨适用于罕遇地震作用下的高速铁路减隔震桥梁的合理计算模型。结果表明,当罕遇地震作用下桥墩位移延性超过0.5时,考虑刚度修正的弹性梁柱单元模拟桥墩的计算模型能够较好地估计桥梁各项地震响应参数。     

泵站地下池体结构形式及施工方案对比分析

借助某下穿铁路项目中雨水泵站的设计，比较了明挖式地下池体和沉井式地下池体的差异。首先从结构受力上入手，分析池体在不同形式下的受力情况。然后从明挖和沉井两种形式的工程造价、施工工期、施工技术要求和施工质量等方面进行对比。对比结果可为今后雨水泵站地下池体的结构形式和施工方案选择提供参考。     

预应力混凝土槽形梁静力行为研究

为了解槽形梁静力行为,进行了一片预制预应力混凝土槽形梁的模型试验,分别考虑跨中最大弯矩及梁端最大剪力两种荷载工况对试验模型进行加载,测试了试验模型的控制断面的应力、变形.并采用非线性有限元分析方法对槽形梁的力学特性进行了研究.试验和研究得到了如下结论:该槽形梁的剪力滞效应较为突出,具有明显的开口薄壁杆件特征,底板的空间板效应明显,在设计荷载作用下结构处于线弹性状态,具有一定的安全储备.     

导流块对高速检测车空调系统进出风口压力影响的数值分析

以不可压缩黏性N-S方程和RNGk-ε湍流模型为基础,对4辆编组检测车以350km/h速度明线运行的空气流场进行了数值分析,针对空调导流块对检测车空调表面压力分布的影响进行了研究。先后对安装导流块、改变冷凝风机进出风方向及去掉导流块3种设计方案明线运行的外流场进行了数值模拟,得到3种设计方案气动特性及空调冷凝风机进出风口压力差的定量结果。计算结果表明,去掉导流块并不利于冷凝风机的进出风,而安装导流块、改变冷凝风机进出风方向的方案是较好的设计方案。     

Strategies to achieve deep reductions in metropolitan transportation GHG emissions: the case of Philadelphia

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates strategies that could achieve an 80% reduction in transportation emissions from current levels by 2050 in the City of Philadelphia. The baseline daily lifecycle emissions generated by road transportation in the Greater Philadelphia Region in 2012 were quantified using trip information from the 2012 Household Travel Survey (HTS). Emissions were projected to the year 2050 accounting for population growth and trends in vehicle technology for both the Greater Philadelphia Region and the City of Philadelphia. The impacts of vehicle technology and shifts in travel modes on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2050 were quantified using a scenario approach. The analysis of 12 different scenarios suggests that 80% reduction in emissions is technically feasible through a combination of active transportation, cleaner fuels for public transit vehicles, and a significant market penetration of battery-electric vehicles. The additional electricity demand associated with greater use of electric vehicles could amount to 10.8 TWh/year. The use of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) shows promising results due to high reductions in GHG emissions at a potentially manageable cost.