Will a driving restriction policy reduce car trips?—The case study of Beijing,China

A driving restriction policy, as one of the control-and-command rationing measures, is a politically acceptable policy tool to address traffic congestion and air pollution in some countries and cities in the world. Beijing is the first city in China to implement this policy. A one-day-a-week driving restriction scheme was expected to take 20% of cars off the road every week day. Using household survey and travel diary data, we analyze the short-term effect of this driving restriction policy on individual travel mode choice. The data also allow us to identify which demographic groups are more likely to break the restriction rule. The estimates reveal that the restriction policy in Beijing does not have significant influence on individuals’ decisions to drive, as compared with the policy’s influence on public transit. The rule-breaking behavior is constant and pervasive. We found that 47.8% of the regulated car owners didn’t follow the restriction rules, and drove “illegally” to their destination places. On average, car owners who traveled during peak hours and/or for work trips, and whose destinations were farther away from the city center or subway stations, were more likely to break the driving restriction rules. Therefore, Beijing is probably in need of more comprehensive and palatable policy instruments (e.g., a combination of congestion tolls, parking fees, fuel taxes, and high-speed transit facilities) to effectively alleviate traffic congestion and air pollution.     

A topological route choice model for metro

This article presents a route choice model for public transit networks that incorporates variables related to network topology, complementing those found in traditional models based on service levels (travel time, cost, transfers, etc.) and users’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics (income level, trip purpose, etc.). The topological variables represent concepts such as the directness of the chosen route and user knowledge of the network. For both of these factors, the necessary data is endogenous to the modelling process and can be quantified without the need for information-gathering beyond what is normally required for building route choice models. Other novel variables in the proposed formulation capture notions of user comfort such as vehicle occupancy rates and certain physical characteristics of network stations. We conclude that these new variables significantly improve the explanatory and predictive ability of existing route choice specifications.     

A nested recursive logit model for route choice analysis

We propose a route choice model that relaxes the independence from irrelevant alternatives property of the logit model by allowing scale parameters to be link specific. Similar to the recursive logit (RL) model proposed by Fosgerau et al. (2013), the choice of path is modeled as a sequence of link choices and the model does not require any sampling of choice sets. Furthermore, the model can be consistently estimated and efficiently used for prediction.A key challenge lies in the computation of the value functions, i.e. the expected maximum utility from any position in the network to a destination. The value functions are the solution to a system of non-linear equations. We propose an iterative method with dynamic accuracy that allows to efficiently solve these systems.We report estimation results and a cross-validation study for a real network. The results show that the NRL model yields sensible parameter estimates and the fit is significantly better than the RL model. Moreover, the NRL model outperforms the RL model in terms of prediction.     

Continuum theory for pedestrian traffic flow: Local route choice modelling and its implications

This contribution puts forward a novel multi-class continuum model that captures some of the key dynamic features of pedestrian flows. It considers route choice behaviour on both the strategic (pre-trip) and tactical (en-route) level. To achieve this, we put forward a class-specific equilibrium direction relation of the pedestrians, which is governed by two parts: one part describing the global route choice, which is pre-determined based on the expectations of the pedestrians, and one part describing the local route choice, which is a density-gradient dependent term that reflects local adaptations based on prevailing flow conditions.Including the local route choice term in the multi-class model causes first of all dispersion of the flow: pedestrians will move away from high density areas in order to reduce their overall walking costs. Second of all, for the crossing flow and bi-directional flow cases, local route choice causes well known self-organised patterns to emerge (i.e. diagonal stripes and bi-directional lanes). We study under which demand conditions self-organisation occurs and fails, as well as what the impact is of the choices of the different model parameters. In particular, the differences in the weights reflecting the impact of the own and the other classes appear to have a very strong impact on the self-organisation process.     

关于网络性产品的兼容性和价格动态选择问题的研究

网络性产品的兼容性和价格是网络性产品的生产企业经营决策的重要方面。本文从需求出发，考虑产品的网络效应、兼容性以及价格，推导出需求函数。考虑网络性产品市场的实际情况，建立了企业动态选择产品兼容性和价格模型的3种形式，并用逆向归纳法进行计算，而且对第3种形式进行实例分析。     

A stated preference examination of time of travel choice for a recreational trip

A stated preference experiment was performed in Calgary in Canada to examine how people are influenced in the selection of a departure time for a hypothetical trip to see a movie. A total of 635 complete observations were obtained. In each observation the respondent was presented with a set of possible departure time scenarios and asked to indicate the order of preference for these scenarios. Each scenario was described by specifying the automobile travel time, the expected arrival time relative to the movie start time, the parking cost, the probability of being at least ten minutes late for the movie and the length of time the movie had been running. This forced the respondent to trade off between conditions regarding these attributes. Age, gender and frequency of movie attendance were also recorded. The observations thus obtained were used to estimate the parameter values for a range of alternative utility functions in logit models representing this choice behaviour. The results indicate that all of the attributes included have significant effects on departure time choice in the situation being considered. They also indicate that travellers are prepared to arrive roughly two minutes early for each minute of travel time saved; that the money value of driving time for trips to recreational activities is about half that for trips to work; that one additional percent in the probability of arriving late is equivalent to roughly 0.20 Canadian dollars or 1.93 minutes drive time; and that there is a preference for a non-zero expected early arrival time regardless of the associated probability of arriving late. Some of these results are novel and others are consistent with findings for work trips in work done by others, which is seen to add credence to the approach being used here.     

超限严格管制下公路货运运力结构预测研究

针对传统的超限运输运力结构预测模型中,将车辆超限部分轴载转化为同一车型满轴载通过假设的不足,本文基于运力均衡的思想建立了超限严格管制下公路货运运力结构预测模型。在轴载调查的基础上,模型以单车装载量的累积概率分布需同单位货物重量的累积概率分布相一致为求解目标,推测了各轴型车辆总重谱的偏移情况,进而对超限管制变动下的公路货运车型结构及运量结构进行预测。模型在公路安徽世行项目II———超载运输研究中的使用结果表明,在超限运输严格管制条件下,2-S2将取代SU2成为公路货运的主力车型。     

初始条件对驾驶员逐日路径选择行为和网络交通流演化的影响

从查阅到的文献可以看到,在驾驶员逐日路径选择行为及网络交通流演化的研究中,均假定驾驶员第1天对路径的理解行程时间相同,也即初始条件中没有考虑驾驶员的个体差异性。首先,对初始条件和驾驶员逐日路径选择过程建模,在2条平行路径的简单路网中,运用Agent仿真方法模拟了不同初始条件下驾驶员逐日路径选择过程。结果表明：路网达到平衡所需的时间与驾驶员对历史信息的依赖程度显著相关,而与第1天驾驶员对路径行程时间理解的相关差异性不显著;路网平衡和用户平衡的差别与两者均显著相关。虽然在不同情况下路网均能够达到近似的用户平衡状态,但是平衡时驾驶员对2条路径的理解行程时间存在较大差异。     

沉管隧道管节预制工艺比选

沉管管节预制是沉管隧道工程的重要环节。文章介绍4种不同混凝土管节预制方式及工程应用实例,结合港珠澳大桥沉管隧道工程的实际情况,重点对干坞法和工厂法进行了深入比选研究,最后对港珠澳大桥管节预制实施方案提出建议。     

从机会成本的角度谈稳定层摊铺机械的选型

从经济学观点出发 ,利用机会成本原理 ,结合本公司承建的电湛高速公路路面工程特点 ,对该路面工程所应用的基层摊铺机的选型方案进行分析