基于驾驶模拟器的雾天驾驶行为特性研究

在不同指令和速度反馈机制下进行了分组试验,模拟分析500,200,80,50和30 m能见度下驾驶速度选择和车道保持特性。结果表明：随着能见度的降低,车辆速度呈先升高后降低的趋势,实际速度与期望速度不匹配;除30 m能见度外,能见度降低未对驾驶员车道保持能力产生影响;80 m能见度下平均车速和车道保持率最高。     

A nested logit model of mode choice for inland movement of export shipments: A case study of containerised export cargo from India

Predominance of containerised mode of transport for export of general cargo has influenced the mode choices on the inland segment. Prior to containerisation the general cargo for export moved to ports invariably on road in break bulk form. Growth of containerisation led to development of inland terminals enabling an exporter to obtain export clearance at the inland points. This process facilitated an exporter to move cargo either in break bulk or in containerised form, and as inland terminals facilitated aggregation an exporter could move cargo either by road or rail. Thus containerisation increased the inland transport options for an exporter from one to three. The paper develops discrete choice models in the Indian context for inland movement of containerised export cargo. Primary data was collected from 124 export firms through a structured questionnaire. This data is supplemented with data from transport firms and terminal operators. Using the above data, a nested logit model with rail container and road truck in one branch was found to predict the mode choice behaviour best. Amongst the transport attributes, total cost and total transit time were found to be influencing the mode choices significantly. The study however did not find the effect of reliability and loss and damage significant. In addition, the model also predicts that non transport attributes - like the percentage of letters of credit that materialise with inland way bills and the value of export benefits that materialise after export - are important in the mode choice decision.     

Choosing Public Transport—Incorporating Richer Behavioural Elements in Modal Choice Models

The development of behaviourally richer representations of the role of well-established and increasingly important influences on modal choice, such as trip time reliability and accounting for risk attitude and process rules, has moved forward at a fast pace in the context of automobile travel. In the public transport setting, such contributions have, with rare exception, not been considered. In this paper, we discuss and empirically illustrate the merits of advanced modelling developments aimed at improving our understanding of public transport choice, namely the inclusion of reliability in extended expected utility theoretic forms, to recognize risk attitude and perceptual conditioning, the consideration of passenger crowding and its inclusion in linear additive models, and the role of multiple heuristics in representing attribute processing as a way of conditioning modal choice. We illustrate the mechanics of introducing these behaviourally appealing extensions using a modal choice data set collected in Sydney.     

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为更科学计算运输通道各种交通方式供给能力的配置量,运用随机效用理论和离散选择模型,建立基于动态广义费用的交通方式选择Logit模型,以郑州-西安客运通道为实例,运用Matlab软件编写程序,进行求解验证.研究表明,交通方式建设成本分摊随分担量变化而变化,并与随机感知系数和出行时间价值一起影响各方式分担率.与现有模型的对比表明,各方式分担率变化幅度与建设成本大小差异并非同向;交通方式选择的广义费用是动态变化的,不能仅仅依据静态的在途时间和票价进行方式分担率计算.该模型既能保证出行者的个体要求又能保障各种交通方式的持续运营,所计算的通道各交通方式分担率更符合实际.     

某特大桥整体连续梁病害分析及加固

以实际运营中的整体连续梁桥实例为背景,对该桥梁目前运用状况、桥梁的病害进行分析,针对桥梁的实际情况提出多项加固方法,并对整体连续梁加固方法进行方案比选,论述加固措施的合理性,为该类桥梁加固工程提供参考。     

Accommodating risk in the valuation of expected travel time savings

Valuation of travel time savings is a critical measure in transport infrastructure appraisal, traffic modelling and network performance. It has been recognised for some time that the travel times associated with repeated trips are subject to variation, and hence there is risk embedded in the treatment of expected travel time. In the context of the expected utility framework, we use a nonlinear probability weighting function to accommodate choice made under risk. Although the empirical findings suggest small differences between the value of expected travel time savings (VETTS) in the presence and absence of risk, the mean estimate does make a noticeable difference to time benefits when applied to real projects. By incorporating nonlinear probability weighting, our model reveals that the probabilities associated with specific travel times that are shown to respondents in the choice experiment are transformed, resulting in overweighting of outcomes with low probabilities and underweighting of outcomes with high probabilities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

引入忠诚度变量的城际出行方式动态选择行为研究

针对中国城市群的快速形成与发展,结合城市群城际出行特点,研究城市群城际出行方式选择行为.基于非集计理论,对效用函数引入刻画动态选择行为的忠诚度变量,抓住了出行者出行方式选择的关联性.利用了平滑指数计算忠诚度变量,既反映了忠诚度的持续性也考虑了突变性.将忠诚度变量作为影响因素引入模型的可观测效用部分,建立出行者城际出行方式选择Mixed Logit模型.在大量调查问卷基础上,通过对引入前后的模型对比分析计算得出,忠诚度变量加入后,模型中其他的出行影响因素效用强度明显削弱,其产生的正效用证明了城际出行选择是一种带有倾向性的行为反应,具有某种出行方式选择的持续性、依赖性和突变性,说明出行者过往的出行体验对选择心理具有显著的影响,也说明构建的模型很好地还原了出行方式选择的动态特性.     

大学生工作价值观与择业选择——以上海、江西为例

对新生代大学生的内在、外在工作价值观以及价值观与择业意向之间的关系进行了研究,并以上海、江西南昌两地样本来比较地区差异。研究表明,新生代大学生对工作价值观中的成就感、同事关系、独立性要求较高,对监督关系、利他主义、美感的追求尚可,而对创造性、工作环境、管理能力、变动性、智力刺激的上追求并不高。上海大学生对管理能力的追求高于江西大学生,在择业意向上两地大学生也存在差异,上海学生更倾向去外企就职,而江西学生更倾向于国有企业和事业单位就职。进一步,创造性、管理能力价值观负向影响到选择国企就职,而工作环境价值观负向影响到选择民营企业就职。最后研究对新生代管理实践进行了讨论。