Port privatization under Cournot vs. Bertrand competition: a third-market approach

By incorporating port competition into a third-market model consisting of two exporting firms and one importing country, we demonstrate the endogenous choice of port structures (i.e. privatization or public ownership) under either Bertrand or Cournot competition. In contrast to previous studies on port competition, we analyze the port strategy in view of all trading countries (i.e. importing country and exporting countries). We find that regardless of transport cost, the port ownership strategy alters according to exporting firm’s competition mode. Under Bertrand competition, the choice of port ownership structure depends on the degree of imperfect substitutability. However, under Cournot competition, all trading countries choose same ownership structures of each port. By comparing equilibrium of each competition mode, we show that welfare of exporting country under Cournot competition is higher than under Bertrand competition if goods are sufficiently substitutes. In contrast, importing country prefers Bertrand competition to Cournot competition when the competitive pressure is sufficiently high.     

Analysing Demand for Suburban Trips: A Mixed RP/SP Model with Latent Variables and Interaction Effects

We analyse mode choice behaviour for suburban trips in the Grand Canary island using mixed revealed preference (RP)/stated preference (SP) information. The SP choice experiment allowed for interactions among the main policy variables: travel cost, travel time and frequency, and also to test the influence of latent variables such as comfort. It also led to discuss additional requirements on the size and sign of the estimated model parameters, to assess model quality when interactions are present. The RP survey produced data on actual trip behaviour and was used to adapt the SP choice experiment. During the specification searches we detected the presence of income effect and were able to derive willingness-to-pay measures, such as the subjective value of time, which varied among individuals. We also studied the systematic heterogeneity in individual tastes through the specification of models allowing for interactions between level-of-service and socio-economic variables. We concluded examining the sensitivity of travellers’ behaviour to various policy scenarios. In particular, it seems that contrary to political opinion, in a crowded island policies penalising the use of the private car seem to have a far greater impact in terms of bus patronage than policies implying direct improvements to the public transport service.     

The Impact of Travel Time Information on Travelers’ Learning under Uncertainty

In this work, laboratory experiment was conducted in order to evaluate the effect of feedback on decision-making under uncertainty, with and without provided information about travel times. We discuss the prediction of travelers’ response to uncertainty in two route–choice situations. In the first situation travelers are faced with a route–choice problem in which travel times are uncertain but some external information about routes’ travel times is provided. The second situation takes place in a more uncertain environment in which external information about travel times is not provided, and the travelers’ only source of information is their own experience. Experimental results are in conflict with the paradigm about traveler information systems: As a consequence of information, the propensity of travelers to minimize expected travel time is not necessarily increased. Providing travelers with static information about expected travel times reveals an increase in the heterogeneity of travelers’ choices and reduces the maximization rate.     

Mixed Logit模型及其在交通方式分担中的应用研究

离散选择模型的典型代表Logit模型简洁易用的特点使其在经济、交通等领域得到了广泛的应用，但同时Logit模型的两个重要缺陷限制了其应用范围。在分析了Logit模型固有的两个缺陷和Mixed Logit模型的良好性质后，比较了Logit模型与Mixed Logit模型的差异，对Mixed Logit模型的算法进行了研究，并借助SAS统计软件提供的仿真算法给出了详细的工程实践应用范例。结果表明，Mixed Logit模型有着更丰富的物理含义，对个人出行交通方式选择行为的描述更符合实际。     

信号控制对动态路线选择的影响研究

以动态路线选择模型为基础的先进的出行者信息系统（ＡＴＩＳ）的实施必然对城市交通控制系统产生影响，同时交通控制系统的控制方案对路线诱导信息“运行时间”的估计也发生作用，影响用户对最优路线的造选择。对两系统的相互关系进行了分析，并建立了两系统相互关系模型最后给出了实际案例分析。     

A conceptual and methdological framework for the generation of activity-travel patterns

This paper develops a conceptual framework for the generation of activity and travel patterns in the context of more general structures and presents an integrated model system as a step toward development of an improved travel demand forecasting model system. We propose a two-stage structure to model activity and travel behavior. The first stage, the stop generation and stop/auto allocation models, consists of the choices for the number of household maintenance stops and the allocation of stops and autos to household members. The second stage, the tour formation model, includes the choices for the number of tours and the assignment of stops to tours for each individual, conditional on the choices in the first stage. Empirical results demonstrate that individual and household socio-demographics are important factors affecting the first stage choices, the generation of maintenance stops and the allocation of stops and autos among household members, and the second stage choices, the number of tours and the assignment of stops to tours. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Using repeated cross-sectional travel surveys to enhance forecasting robustness: Accounting for changing mode preferences

Transportation system capacity and performance, urban form and socio-demographics define the influences and constraints conditioning the preferences of urban residents for different transport modes. Changes in characteristics of urban areas are likely to lead to changes in preferences for alternative modes of transport over time; as a consequence, statistical models to forecast mode choice need to be sensitive to both purposeful changes to urban systems as well as exogenous shocks. We make use of the 1996, 2001 and 2006 household surveys conducted in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area to study mode preference evolution and model forecasting performance. These repeated cross-sectional household surveys provide an opportunity to investigate aggregate structural changes in commuting mode preferences over time, in a manner sensitive to changes in the urban area. We focus on commuting mode choices because these trips are prime determinants of peak period congestion and peak spreading. We then address how to combine the three cross-sections econometrically in a robust way that allows for use of a single mode choice model across the entire period. Using independent data from 2012, we are able to compare the individual year and combined models in terms of forecasting performance to demonstrate the combined model’s more robust forecasting performance into the future.     

A new estimation approach for the multiple discrete–continuous probit (MDCP) choice model

This paper develops a blueprint (complete with matrix notation) to apply Bhat’s (2011) Maximum Approximate Composite Marginal Likelihood (MACML) inference approach for the estimation of cross-sectional as well as panel multiple discrete–continuous probit (MDCP) models. A simulation exercise is undertaken to evaluate the ability of the proposed approach to recover parameters from a cross-sectional MDCP model. The results show that the MACML approach does very well in recovering parameters, as well as appears to accurately capture the curvature of the Hessian of the log-likelihood function. The paper also demonstrates the application of the proposed approach through a study of individuals’ recreational (i.e., long distance leisure) choice among alternative destination locations and the number of trips to each recreational destination location, using data drawn from the 2004 to 2005 Michigan statewide household travel survey.     

城市轨道交通车辆最高运行速度的选择

研究目的:通过对影响列车最高运行速度的几大要素进行分析,寻找轨道交通车辆选型时确定列车最高运行速度等级的一般规律,从而达到节约能源、减少车底数的目的.研究结论:确定城市轨道交通车辆最高运行速度等级时一般以平均车站间距作为首要依据,车站间距约为3.4 km时,推荐选择列车最高运行速度120 km/h;当车站站间距约为2.3 km时,推荐选择列车最高运行速度100 km/h;当车站站间距约为1.5 km时,推荐选择列车最高运行速度80 km/h.