自适应粒子群优化的船舶动力定位云模型控制器设计

云模型控制理论是智能控制学科的新兴领域,因此如何扩展云模型的应用范围并使其走向工程化实用化成为云模型理论的研究重点。针对船舶运动模型具有不确定性和外部扰动随机性等特点,而云模型具有兼顾模糊性和随机性的特质,尝试将云模型应用于船舶动力定位的控制过程。为解决云模型控制器参数难以整定的问题,提出基于自适应粒子群优化算法的云模型控制器设计方法。仿真试验证明了云模型控制和粒子群优化的可行性和有效性。     

设备拥有量模型的研究

通过对设备完好率、设备出勤台数和设备拥有量三者之间的关系进行深入的分析,找出三者之间的单值对应关系,采用线性回归、最优化理论、曲面拟合等数学方法并结合计算机软件建立设备拥有量的计算模型,并对此模型进行更深入的分析,建立其分段模型,从而保证了模型的计算精度,为企业的设备投资提供科学的准确的定量分析依据。     

Investigating micro-simulation error in activity-based travel demand forecasting: a case study of the FEATHERS framework

Activity-based models of travel demand have received considerable attention in transportation planning and forecasting in recent years. However, in most cases they use a micro-simulation approach, thereby inevitably including a stochastic error that is caused by the statistical distributions of random components. As a consequence, running a transport micro-simulation model several times with the same input will generate different outputs, which baffles practitioners in applying such a model and in interpreting the results. A common approach is therefore to run the model multiple times and to use the average value of the results. The question then becomes: what is the minimum number of model runs required to reach a stable result? In this paper, systematic experiments are carried out using Forecasting Evolutionary Activity-Travel of Households and their Environmental RepercussionS (FEATHERS), an activity-based micro-simulation modelling framework currently implemented for the Flanders region of Belgium. Six levels of geographic detail are taken into account. Three travel indices – average daily activities per person, average daily trips per person and average daily distance travelled per person, as well as their corresponding segmentations – are calculated by running the model 100 times. The results show that the more disaggregated the level, the larger the number of model runs is needed to ensure confidence. Furthermore, based on the time-dependent origin-destination table derived from the model output, traffic assignment is performed by loading it onto the Flemish road network, and the total vehicle kilometres travelled in the whole Flanders are subsequently computed. The stable results at the Flanders level provides model users with confidence that application of FEATHERS at an aggregated level requires only limited model runs.     

基于云平台的铁路视频系统及安全技术研究

云技术的广泛应用是信息技术发展的新趋势,铁路视频监控系统无论从存储的可扩展性、安全性还是从集中管理、大数据收集的角度,都需要云技术的有力支撑,云技术的应用也会带来新的安全问题,如云数据安全风险、虚拟化安全风险、非法访问风险等.简要分析铁路视频监控系统面临的安全问题和相应的安全技术方案.     

联合站游离水脱水器数学建模与应用

结合原油物性的复杂性和多变性,讨论了建立游离水脱除模型的6个假设条件,建立了沉降分离模型,分析了影响水的密度、黏度及原油的密度的主要因素,给出温度变化对上述参数影响的计算公式。对建立的数学模型进行了计算应用,并分析了产生误差的原因,提出了改进意见。     

智慧高速公路设计案例分析

本文以某智慧高速的设计案例为依托,首先对国内外智慧高速发展和应用现状进行归纳总结,分析认为电动化、智能化的新型运载工具,信息化和功能专业化的基础设施,开放、共享、协同的管理与服务将是未来高速公路三大发展趋势。通过对高速公路使用者和管理者的需求针对性地精准分析,构建面向高速公路使用者和管理者的创新型应用服务。结合新技术的发展趋势,以服务需求为导向,建设"三网合一"智慧高速基础设施和智慧云控平台构成、数据流为驱动的、"开放、包容、创新"的智慧高速公路。基于案例分析的智慧高速规划设计全过程,对于国内智慧高速的整体设计和建设规划具有重要参考价值,探索开辟全新的高速公路智能化建设方向和思路。     

Development of railway station choice models to improve the representation of station catchments in rail demand models

ABSTRACT

This paper describes the development of railway station choice models suitable for defining probabilistic station catchments. These catchments can then be incorporated into the aggregate demand models typically used to forecast demand for new rail stations. Revealed preference passenger survey data obtained from the Welsh and Scottish Governments was used for model calibration. Techniques were developed to identify trip origins and destinations from incomplete address information and to automatically validate reported trips. A bespoke trip planner was used to derive mode-specific station access variables and train leg measures. The results from a number of multinomial logit and random parameter (mixed) logit models are presented and their predictive performance assessed. The models were found to have substantially superior predictive accuracy compared to the base model (which assumes the nearest station has a probability of one), indicating that their incorporation into passenger demand forecasting methods has the potential to significantly improve model predictive performance.     

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为了适应经济发展，我国许多城市加快了轨道交通的建设步伐。私营公司与政府签订合作协议，共同参与运营管理，这打破了以往一家运营商的垄断局面。如何在保证高质量的运营效率的同时，兼顾各家运营商的收益分配，运费清分的研究显得十分重要。本文分析了影响清分的主要因素和原则，建立有效路径选择模型和基于概率的多路径选择模型。采用改进的遍历算法以保证有效路径集的完整性。利用c++程序计算出各条路径的分担比例和各家运营商的清分比例，给出了提高清分比例的研究结论和建议。     

强迫布鲁塞尔振子相图的研究

针对强迫布鲁塞尔振子模型的Ｆａｒｅｙ序列与Ｍ．Ｓ．Ｓ序列进行了扩大区域的研究，表明单峰映中看成圆映象的近似，并建立了圆映象的相图，单峰映象的相图及符号动力学间的关系。     

一种新的基于云模型映射关系的威胁评估方法

结合现代舰艇编队防空作战的特点,对影响目标威胁评估的各种因素进行了分析。在讨论了常用威胁评估算法优缺点的基础上,提出了一种新的基于云模型映射关系的威胁评估方法。设计了一个仿真实例,结果表明所研究的威胁评估方法具有可行性。